CFBNumbers

"Passing" Down frequency & how efficient QBs have been on those passing downs. CJ Bailey, Ty Simpson, Josh Hoover have been ballin on a bigger sample of passing downs for the P4, Brown & Finley for Georgia State in the G5

Now that we are a couple games in, its time to see what the Fun Index thinks of your team (Fun Index = composite of metrics i find fun like QB play, explosiveness on offense, generating turnovers on defense etc.). Top teams having fun: USC, Indiana and Florida State

The CJ Carr Week: CFB Week 5 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 6 Look Ahead Before you could even finish your blink, September college football is behind us.

New article! This week I chose to highlight how impressive CJ Carr looked against Arkansas. Come check it out!
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...

Home and Away Point differential over expectation (expectation being betting lines) since the 2022 season. Really just wanted to see Oregon in the Dan Lanning era, not as bad of a diff home vs. away than I originally thought.

Fresh coat of paint and, more importantly, I have updated my QB spider chart app to include the 2025 season as it stands today. Still gotta work on QB comps from previous years but for now if you want 2025 data it is there!

cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/

The Fernando Mendoza Week: CFB Week 4 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 5 Look Ahead The 2026 NFL draft is still many months away, but scouting has been well underway this season.

New weekly recap in your inboxes!! A QB has potentially emerged in a murky 2026 QB class:
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...

Highest PFF Big Time Throw rate so far this season:
1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8%
2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0%
3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9%
4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%

Started the year super high, has been falling ever since. Similar to power ratings you won't see many massive swings up or down on a week to week basis

QB point rating as it stands currently vs. how many points they've gained or lost since the beginning of the year. These are 45 QBs who could be potential 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft QBs. Still super early and its hard to gain that much against inferior opponents

Here is the entire FBS for those curious. The creep up to Carson Beck continues

Top 30 QBs in my point rating system heading into this week. Big moves up by Marcel Reed, Jake Retzlaff, Joey Aguilar, Taylen Green among others. Drew Allar continues to fall

The Week of the Wide Receiver: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 4 Look Ahead Wide receivers making big time impacts in big time games!

Another recap + look ahead just hit your inboxes! (If you're subscribed of course, which is 100% free!)

Link⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

Success rate and explosiveness (measured here as what you do when you generate a successful play). Anything right of the vertical dashed line is fine, shows a consistent offense. USC has been both consistent and explosive

*Small sample size alert* But looking at Arch Mannings completion pct vs. expected completion pct, we can see that intermediate 10-19 yard range has really taken a dive so far this year. Hard to fully operate a Sark offense if you can hit those 10-19 yard MOF windows

Here is the group of 5. Colton Joseph put on a show against the Hokies, Didn't watch the CCU game but Tad Hudson probably needed more help

QB for JUST the games that happened this weekend. Up first is the Power 4. Not a banner day for Drew Allar/Arch Manning, but a great day for Fernando Mendoza, Malik Washington, Josh Hoover & Steve Angeli

A silly little big time throw rate & turnover worthy play rate graph with only a 2 game sample size. Mainly just to say wheewwwww buddy Arch Manning and Diego Pavia. A thrill on every dropback

If he continues to have games like San Jose State he will make his way on here. Still a relatively small sample size for him and his career

Here is the entire FBS

Top 30 FBS QBs according to my ratings system (a career number, not just this year), as well as how their rating has changed since the beginning of the year. The Oklahoma YoY numbers are going to be insane thanks to John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle

The Week of the BULLS: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 3 Look Ahead Is South Florida the leader in the clubhouse for the Group of 5 spot?

USF has been smashing vegas expectations as they take hold of the Group of 5 playoff spot race. That and more in our weekly advanced stats recap + look ahead. Check it out! ⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

Completion Pct Over Expectation & how far a QB throws down the field on average. This excludes passes that were thrown away, spikes and drops by WRs

My consensus power ratings after week 1. Still not much separation at the top of the pecking order, Oklahoma-Michigan are neck and neck heading into their game

The Week of THEM NOLES: CFB Week 1 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 2 Look Ahead CFB has started and THE NOLES ARE UNDEFEATED

First weekly recap + look ahead article of the season!!! Check it out here:

cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

Top 30 QBs in the FBS according to my point ratings. Parker Navarro takes a leap up, Cade Klubnik takes a step back

Point explanation here cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/2025-cfb-s...

Here is the group of 5. Evan Simon, Anthony Colandrea, Parker Navarro your most top right, but a lot of fun QBs next up

QB Play for JUST Week 1 (through Saturday) for the Power 4. Film based metric on the Y, per play efficiency on the X. Rocco Becht and Jayden Maiva your most top right so far. Highest PFF Grade: true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

247 team talent composite vs. Consensus power ratings heading into week 1. Trend line shows relationship between both, so you really want to be above the line (unlike my alma mater!)

Was watching Bryce Underwoods spring game earlier, wanted to see who added the most expected points in their freshman year in the CFB Playoff era. Here are the top 25 freshman seasons in terms of EPA:

Completion Pct Over Expectation on passes down the MOF vs. passes outside. QBs like Dante Moore/Aidan Chiles/John Mateer need to improve down the middle, while QBs like Drew Allar could stand to hit more sideline shots