Miguel Chanco

Ministry of Home Affairs plans 7.2 per cent minimum wage hike The Ministry emphasises that the adjustment aims to balance the interests of both workers and businesses. Most companies are already paying above the proposed minimum wage, so the main impact would be...

No biggie, this - 7.2% would be *below* the current rapid rate of wage growth: vietnamnews.vn/economy/1726.... The market is both tight, and still tightening.

#Vietnam

Vietnam’s FDI disbursement highest in five years - VnExpress International Vietnam’s disbursement of foreign direct investment (FDI) in January – September recorded its highest level in five years, reaching $18.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%.

Unshaken - rightly, from our POV - by the #US' tariff war: e.vnexpress.net/news/busines...

#Vietnam

Panel expected to maintain policy rate Economists expect the Bank of Thailand to keep its policy rate unchanged at Wednesday's meeting, as the central bank awaits clearer economic data and allows time for its new governor to settle in.

FWIW, I'm expecting another #BoT cut tomorrow (as is the widespread consensus): www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...

Finance minister insists on cutting budget for free meals program - Regulations - The Jakarta Post Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has insisted on cutting the state budget allocation for the free nutritious meal (MBG) program if spending on the flagship initiative remains slow.

Gosh, the honeymoon period of Prabowo's flagship campaign promise is truly coming to an end, huh? www.thejakartapost.com/business/202...

#Indonesia

World Bank raises India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%, cites tariff risks ahead The World Bank raised Indias FY26 growth forecast to 6.5% from 6.3%, while trimming FY27 to 6.3%, citing higher US tariffs. Despite this, India remains the fastest-growing major economy, driven by str...

Pretty much the story for #India GDP revisions of late - up this year (mostly to do with the 'strong' Apr.-Jun. reading) and down next year (tariffs): economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

Nailed today's softer-than-expected CPI print in the #Philippines with our bottom-of-the-range 1.7% forecast for September. Don't think it's soft *enough*, though, to bring another #BSP rate cut into play this Thursday. (Screenshot via Bloomberg.)

#PantheonMacro

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "Q3 could mark the turn in #Vietnam's GDP growth; mind overheating risk" buff.ly/AgF4bPY

EU citizens living in UK shouldn’t be allowed welfare benefits, says Tory rising star Katie Lam — who is earning plaudits on the Conservative right — calls for Brexit withdrawal agreement to be reopened.

Not a serious person. Zero mention of what this would mean for the over a million British citizens whose own access to welfare in the EU is protected by the withdrawal agreement.

After Cebu quake, solon reminds PH anew of need for new building code MANILA, Philippines — The magnitude 6.9 earthquake that hit northeastern Cebu last September 30 should prompt Congress to immediately address proposals for a new building code, Surigao del Sur

Can't stress enough how important this is for the #Philippines to consider seriously: newsinfo.inquirer.net/2120173/afte.... Selfishly, a lot of my immediate and extended family live in high-rises in Manila and, to be frank, the risks of the "Big One" occasionally keep me awake at night.

BSP seen keeping key rates steady Eli Remolona Jr. — CONTRIBUTED PHOTO MANILA, Philippines — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week, pausing after three consecutive cuts

FWIW - we're in the October hold, but December cut for the #BSP: business.inquirer.net/550892/bsp-s....

China open to importing more from India if New Delhi joins RCEP, says Chinese economist Liqing Zhang Chinese expert Liqing Zhang stated China could import more from India if New Delhi joins the RCEP and becomes more open to Beijing. He emphasized RCEP's potential to boost Indian goods' competitivenes...

Just too bad #India doesn't see it this way: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Of course the opposite can, and probably will, happen in the short run. Doubt New Delhi will reconsider #RCEP membership anytime soon. Focus is on deals with DMs.

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#RBI surveys say "what 50% tariff?"... momentum waning regardless" buff.ly/YgjUvLr

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "Surprise leap in #Indonesia's surplus in August isn't worth celebrating" buff.ly/qdY6Aqg

Bank of Thailand easing cycle to extend to 2026 The Bank of Thailand is expected to continue its easing cycle for the rest of 2025 amid a slowing economy. It has maintained its growth forecasts at 2.3% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026. Our 2025 forecast ...

We're at 1.00% as well for the #BoT's terminal rate, but we expect the MPC to hit this level before the end of this year, rather than dragging it out to H1 2026: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...

Exports of manufactured goods push trade surplus to highest in years - Economy - The Jakarta Post Indonesia has achieved the highest trade surplus in years thanks to soaring exports of manufactured goods as traders sought to place orders ahead of rising United States import tariffs.

Ignore, August surplus flattered so much by seasonality: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202.... More on this in our report out tonight.

#Indonesia

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "Still a matter of when, not if, the #RBI will cut again; we look for December" buff.ly/bS2Cdn3

Trump tariff starts to gnaw on Philippine exports MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines recorded its narrowest trade deficit in six months in August, but the improvement masked new signs of weakness as higher American tariffs began to weigh

Including some thoughts from yours truly: business.inquirer.net/550077/trump....

#Philippines

BSP expects 1.5% to 2.3% September inflation rate FILE PHOTO: Vendors stand by their fruit stalls at a public market in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, February 5, 2021. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez MANILA, Philippines — The Bangko Sentral ng

FWIW, we're at 1.7% for next week's release: business.inquirer.net/550084/bsp-s...

#Philippines

New central bank chief promises cooperation but vows independence Thailand's new central bank chief said on Wednesday that he will maintain the independence of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) while collaborating with the government to address the country's economic chall...

New #BoT governor - “I prefer accommodative monetary policy to support sustainable growth.” (www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...)

Well, there you go.

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's IP Q3-to-date: more robust than Q2, but with a few caveats" buff.ly/BQaRZXu

ADB cuts ’25 Philippine growth forecast to 5.6% MANILA, Philippines - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) significantly cut its growth forecasts for the Philippines to below 6 percent, citing external headwinds that could weigh on

Yup, mid-5% misery is where to expect #Philippines growth to stay for the foreseeable future: business.inquirer.net/549887/adb-c...

Economic decline deepens as consumer confidence dives Thailand's economy remained sluggish in August as private consumption slowed, farm incomes declined, and exports softened due to the impact of US tariffs, according to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).

Just another reason, among many, for the #BoT to cut further next week: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...

India interest rate cut back in play after tariffs The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision is a close call, balancing low inflation and growth concerns from US tariffs against a weak rupee. While most economists predict a hold, a dovish pau...

To be clear, it was never out of play from our POV: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

#India

ADB lowers India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.5% on US tariffs The ADB has lowered India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5% from 7% due to anticipated US tariffs on exports, despite strong Q1 growth. Domestic demand and service exports are expected to cushion this im...

Finally, an outfit that isn't drinking the Kool aid on GST reform in #India: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#RBI would be foolish to hold; Indonesia's 2026 budget set to fail" buff.ly/ByOPFKM

PM Anutin outlines key policies in parliament Renewing tourists' confidence, a peaceful end to the conflict with Cambodia, resolving the trade war and boosting people's incomes are the key policies new Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced...

This document really should be just a one-liner - "hold an election in the next few months, and don't break anything in the meantime" (www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/pol...)

#Thailand

RBI expected to hold policy rate, but surprise cut possible The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to hold its key policy rate at 5.50% this Wednesday. However, some economists anticipate a surprise rate cut, citing downside risks to economic growth from...

A surprise #RBI cut is our call: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

EY raises India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.7% on GST 2.0 boost EY raised India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 6.5%, attributing the revision to GST 2.0 reforms. These changes are expected to boost domestic demand and ease household budgets by consolidati...

Can we all be a bit more honest - how many of these FY25/26 GDP forecast upgrades are more about the headlines strength of the Apr-Jun print, rather than the potential stimulative effect of GST 2.0: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

#India

My latest for #PantheonMacro from earlier this week - "Thai front-running to the US is over, only pain and downside risks ahead" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...

My colleague, Meekita's, latest for #PantheonMacro - "Taiwanese retail sales finally turn expansionary after four months" buff.ly/kFL4rRK