Andrew Merrifield

Income inequality for SA and others...

with all the noise about white domination in South Africa, it is worth looking at the Palma Ratio of inequality... yes, SA was an unequal society under Apartheid, but inequality really sky-rocketed when the ANC took over...

Not a single international cargo ship at the Port of Seattle. The port is dead. The last ship from China will dock at a West coast port on the 29th, and the last Chinese ship will dock on the East coast around May 10th. After that, there will be no more shipments arriving from China. We’re screwed.

FUNDSTRAT tonight:

“.. in the last few days, we have had many conversations with macro fund managers. .. A few have quietly wondered if the President might be insane.”

I flew in on Xmas day 1984, struggled to get into London (the airline charted a bus) checked into my accommodation only to be told I hadn't booked a meal 24 hours ahead of time, wandered around all day not finding one restaurant open, and had my first meal on the 26th... I remember that Xmas well...

not an American so I have ben trying to avoid US (Trump/Musk) news as much as possible, but I see the Venezuelans are being booted out - what happened to the Haitians that were supposed to be eating everyone's pets? Did they give up or were they also given the bum's rush? Asking for a friend...

Anyone who is surprised by this wasn't paying attention. This was always an anti-woman candidate and administration. I hope the women who voted for Trump wake up soon.

until the main instruments of patronage (Black Economic Empowerment and Preferential Procurement) are removed...

The key reason has already been identified by the above quoted authors "these investment projects were increasingly coopted for patronage spending and self-enrichment". There is very little in the budget or any other ANC pronouncement that things will be different this time...

of exposure to the infrastructure market in South Africa leads me to conclude (based on my many studies of actual delivery) that this promised R1 Trillion will be wasted yet again. However my main point is to wonder why this ANC govt persists with these grand promises. The key reason has already

"What happened to the cycle? Reflection on a perennial negative output gap', Theo Janse van Rensburg, David Fowkes and Erik Visser, SARB Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes July 2019. I am sure there are many economists better qualified to comment on ICOR and its future impact, but almost 40 years

"It is becoming clearer that these investment projects were increasingly coopted for patronage spending and self-enrichment, a misallocation of capital that has curtailed the efficiency of investment and therefore the country’s longer-term growth potential".

SA economy was under extreme duress from economic sanctions and the rise of anti-Apartheid resistance, but the rise in the past decade raises serious concerns about the productivity of future infrastructure investment and to quote one paper I used to write this thread,

of capital (amount of Rand/Dollars) to produce one unit of output (normally GDP). SA's ICOR has varied between about 4 and 6 for the past 100 years but in the past decade it has risen to 14. In other words, R14 (or ($14) would add R1 (or$1) to the GDP output. There have been other periods when the

in past budgets (almost since 1994), this focus on infrastructure is yet another waste of public resources which will primarily enrich ANC cadres at the expense of the ordinary public. The key to this argument is ICOR or incremental capital output ratio. A simple definition of ICOR is the increment

some of the seminal public sector policy documents in 1990s and 2000s. Our minister's speech noted: 'infrastructure is a key pillar of our growth strategy...Public infrastructure spending over the next three years will amount to more than R1 trillion.' I intend to argue that like many promises

1/n I don't post threads often as there is little interest outside of South Africa in South Africa, but in light of our recent Budget presentation, I feel inclined to comment. I'm not a public finance specialist, but I have previously considered as knowledgeable about infrastructure and published

we cn only hope the 'wheels come off' and someone speaks up...

thanks for the info - it will be great is someone digs into this story - it would be good to know when those margin calls may trigger...

again it would be useful if someone who understands financial matters can explain the impact of this decline on the Tesla stock price on the loan conditions that Musk undertook to finance his adventures with Twitter...surely he must be taking some strain?

AOC is probably the most famous Dem in the country and has had a target on her back since Day 1 and she's out there every day bringing the fire.

Fuck off if you don't actually want to defend the country and just want to suck up my tax dollars in a cushy job.

an interesting article about a much needed response to the Nazi... but it doesn't consider the implications of a decline in the value of Tesla stock on the loans Musk took out to finance some of his businesses including Twitter. Anyone with financial nous know about that?

gently suggest that everyone who wrote or edited this at the @nytimes.com be gently guided into a career that's not journalism because this is uhhh, real bad

wow

America expended a lot of blood and treasure to become a world leader and in less than a month Trump and his minions (incl almost the entire GOP) have given that away... China and others (Russia) must be delighted...

"The privilege to misgovern may be all but universally enjoyed in practice. But it takes some nerve today to espouse it consistently in public" John Dunn, The Cunning of Unreason, more than 20 years old but very relevant today...

maybe I am reading your maps wrong but South Africa (and Southern Africa) have some of the highest rates of gender based violence in the world with 35.5% of women 18 years or older reporting gender violence and or sexual assault (link: hsrc.ac.za/media-pack-f...).

I just want to say for the record that when the history books are written centuries from now, I believe the election of Donald Trump in a free and fair election in 2024 will go down as one of the most senseless and self-destructive own goals in human history

excuse my ignorance (not an American) but the Teamsters chose to sit out (and not endorse any candidate) the most consequential US election in history... should anyone care what happens to them now? They dug their own grave...