Nye Cominetti

Ex-defence secretary Shapps criticised as he is cleared to join missiles start-up Former defence secretary allowed to take role as chair of Cambridge Aerospace, as long as he avoids defence matters

Something so weird about the phrase 'missiles start-up' www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Thanks!

Is that affecting London disproportionately?

Very good!

Damn I thought I'd had an original thought

😹 I can't say i expected that reply

Hot take not about minimum wages: the rectangle shapes are too big in the put-the-shape-through-the-relevant-hole toys. All the shapes fit through the rectangle hole

Sorry if just a boring terminology point but doesn't nominal wage rigidity imply wage growth heading to zero? Do you mean rigidity in wage *growth* levels?

Small thing I'd like to think more about is fact that overall wage growth comes partly from compositional change & churn among business population. Would like a measure of wage growth stripping those out. That might be more relevant comparison for how much pressure firms feel from MW increases.

It's a fair point, but personally I don't think min wage rising with average earnings is that risky for jobs. Much smaller increase than recent years. I'd raise an eyebrow over LPC's forecast of 4.1% uprating though. Consensus on wage growth next year more like ~3%.

> This year, NLW rose faster (6.7%) than av. earnings (5.3% AWE April), despite policy to raise in line. That was largely due to a data surprise - ONS revising up ASHE. ONS say no similarly big methodology changes coming this year, so hopefully LPC's forecast is a good guide to actual rates.

> Govt still calling youth rates "discriminatory" but more cautious this year - LPC have been asked to consult on the 18-20 rate. I assume that opens up space for slower increase than this year's 16% (!). Will have to be a quick consultation - final recommendations due in two months.

> As I understand it, Govt's min wage policy has come down to a tussle between Treasury and DPM - latter wanting something representing the "genuine living wage" language from manifesto. Treasury won this year again. But Govt has asked LPC to look into higher rates. So the argument isn't over

Minimum wage, maximum pressure? • Resolution Foundation Looking ahead to the future of the minimum wage, we make four recommendations to the Government and the Low Pay Commission (LPC). First, tax policy should go with the grain of minimum wage policy, not...

> Longer term, I don't think we've reached the point where the bite can't rise, despite worries about wage compression. But I do think slower upratings in general justified given min wage now so high. We set out our thinking here www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

> This will be the third year in a row of a 'hold steady' policy. Last year of Cons + twice under Labour.

> Caution warranted this year given the state of the labour market. But that's partly the Govt's fault (employer NICs). Better tax policy would have left more room for min wage rises

Some additional thoughts on today's min wage announcement:

> Raising the min wage in line with av. earnings is fairly cautious - relative to history (min wage consistently outpaced average earnings until 2024, by a LOT 2025-2024) but also relative to the Govt's language (a "genuine living wage").

As in, allow min wage to rise more slowly than av earnings in downturn years? I think if the policy was steady state holding bite (which to be fair it is, at the moment) then yes that makes some sense. Low paid workers more likely to lose jobs in downturns, makes sense to try and minimise that

Was abt to hit go on a press release with a guess at the 2026 NLW. @lowpaycommission.bsky.social have saved me the trouble. They have published a central forecast of:

£12.71 (+4.1%)

This isn't the final NLW! Will change with new data a) 2025 ASHE b) earnings growth

www.gov.uk/government/n...

2. Govt still want youth rates to converge on the adult rate (they say lower youth rates are "discriminatory") but now want LPC to consult on how to do this for 18-20 year olds.

Will post more thoughts shortly

Minimum wage remit for 2026 now published. As expected, it's mostly a rollover of last year's policy.

1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)

Wellness, by Nathan Hill.

Fun to read, lots of stuff about the blurring of reality vs the stories we tell ourselves. At times the level of self-introspection some of the main characters are doing is a bit hard to believe. But definitely enjoyable.

The most fun we ever had, by Claire Lombardo

Really liked it. The sisters and their love-hate relationships were great. Some of the "you (our parents) set us impossible relationship standards" stuff maybe a bit on the nose.

(repeating with a pic)

Path to Power: The years of LBJ vol 1, by Robert Caro.

Long but worth it for the corruption in various elections & (some of) the New Deal spending, LBJ's creepy personality and desperate manoeuvring, and the picture of poor rural texas pre electrification.

Turning this into a reading list thread because they are nice to look at. Plus maybe will get some good recommendations out of it. I don't read that much, so this list will grow slowly. Starting with a few from recent months

FYI, been asked to do some media on this tomorrow so I assume new min wage remit is coming tomorrow or Wed

NHS pay deal in England - frequently asked questions Developed by the Department of Health and Social Care, these FAQs provide clarifying advice on pay, eligibility and implementation of the deal.

Bonuses for NHS workers www.nhsemployers.org/payofferFAQs....

Post 2008 earnings growth is bad enough without using RPI to overstate it

The Government will struggle to reach its 80% employment target without getting more disabled people into work.

Here’s a thread – based on today’s @resfoundation.bsky.social report with @benbgeiger.bsky.social – on how better employer incentives can help get us there...

How I Went to Every Supermarket in the World Tickets | £8.50 | 9 Sept @ The Bill Murray, London | DICE Dan has been a data collector for 10 years. You know when they say how much it costs to live somewhere? He's the guy who has to find out. He goes round the w...

My mate Dan is doing a comedy show about .. collecting price data, which was his job for 10 years. It's gonna be good! link.dice.fm/s15104dfd7aa

Govt are still yet to publish a new minimum wage 'remit' for the LPC. Currently there is no policy in place for 2026. The later they leave it the more likely I think they are to roll over this year's approach (i.e. track average earnings) but still not great to leave it so late.