Nye Cominetti

Good excuse to post one of my favourite silly skits youtube.com/clip/UgkxDZK...

Will have to put it on the list for next time. Thanks for all the thoughts, hopefully we (RF) can put together a fully worked distributional analysis at some point

This isn't a perfect answer but if you look at retail + leisure+ hospitality (which is a pretty large share of MW employment) this is the breakdown of employment and consumption. Hence why I've generally been optimistic about that part of the distributional question

Yes, true. Percent change is different, but maybe that's not the normal way to weigh up whether a policy is 'progressive' or not (as extreme example, I guess would sound odd to say giving every person in the country £10 is 'progressive')

I don't think that accounts for household-specific consumption baskets (impacts on food prices etc), but given workers in poor households are more likely to work in low-paid sectors (like retail, hospitality etc) I don't *think* that would change the picture

On distribution, my understanding was minimum wage increases are progressive, even if less so than many people would assume. e.g. see Fig 9 here ifs.org.uk/sites/defaul...

Agree re enforcement (and maybe tough enforcement would change the 'right' MW level).

On overall purpose, I'd say something like "raising low-paid workers' pay until costs outweigh benefits". Many potential costs ofc: prices, jobs, job quality, incentive to study/trian progress

A counter arg might be that the evidence never will be there - hard for studies to pick out impacts from steady annual increases. But that's a pretty strong line to take.

(I do of course agree with the separate point that the mw is FAR from the best way to help poor families)

Minimum wage, maximum pressure? • Resolution Foundation Looking ahead to the future of the minimum wage, we make four recommendations to the Government and the Low Pay Commission (LPC). First, tax policy should go with the grain of minimum wage policy, not...

Yes spillovers are ofc a thing and the total impact on the wage distribution has definitely risen. But I worry a bit how convinced everyone has become that the mw has gone too far. I'm genuinely not sure the evidence is there Some thoughts here www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

There are issues with ASHE non-response among SMEs that mean it's probably underestimating the coverage level, but not by a huge amount (estimate linked here is ~2 ppts). And trend is unlikely to be wrong - and that shows basically flat coverage since 2016 www.wagedynamics.com/wp-content/u...

Low Pay Commission Report 2024 The Low Pay Commission's annual report sets out in full the evidence and analysis which informed recommendations for minimum wage rates from April 2025.

Where are you getting 22% from? For workers age 25+ it's 6% in the latest data (from 2024). See Fig 5.1 www.gov.uk/government/p...

I did music reviews a bit at Uni, so I know it's tricky to get the tone right, but this is quite something from Pitchfork

Yes will forward it along. Genuinely though, the person had some rousing sentences! Would prefer them to the ~30% who were clearly using chat gpt

Have scored quite a few AI-ridden job applications so would like to applaud the person who went for "I'm not a rampant socialist" but "the wealth of the rich has been built on the blood and sweat of the workers"

but if I understand correctly, only for firms with 5+ prior responses. Which *should* avoid any change in the sample this year. 😌 That will be a relief to the Low Pay Commission, who will get 2025 ASHE data next month, which they will need to plug straight into their minimum wage recommendation.

3. ASHE data collection is moving online. A very sensible step, and will hopefully reduce non-responses from SMEs, a known problem. If that happens, will have a downwards effect on earnings estimates (because SMEs pay less). They say this already started with the 2025 data collection 😟...

2. They have started a project to resolve the lack of coherence between LFS and admin data (PAYE) and business survey data (WFJ), and because of the above-mentioned issues with the LFS trend this year. That sounds promising !

The blog acknowledges this. Good moment to remind you that RF continue to update our own employment rate estimates based on administrative jobs data ☺️https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/estimates-of-uk-employment/

1. They expect LFS responses to keep rising (in waves 2-5) thanks to their methodology changes. That's good, but will affect LFS estimates, and I think means we can't place much weight on LFS employment trends until that process is complete - blog says from Q3.

Lifting the lid on our work to improve labour market statistics The ONS’s new Director-General for Surveys and Economic and Social Statistics, James Benford, talks through work going on beyond the scenes to improve our statistics after a week with several major

Helpful and easy to read blog from ONS on their improvements to labour market stats. More of this kind of thing, please ! Couple of things to highlight
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/23/l...

The upcoming Budget presents various challenges.

@ruthcurtice.bsky.social explains our recommendations for reform and revenue raising ⤵️

Call of duties • Resolution Foundation Ahead of the Budget, this report considers the options for the Government to respond decisively to a deterioration in the public finances while also making the tax system fairer and more efficient.

@adamcorlett.bsky.social's report on how to raise the tax needed in the upcoming budget is out, watch here www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/call-...

Importantly, possibly the best RF report title since Richard Hughes' Britannia Waives the Rules.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Haha I'm excited now

I've never managed to clear £100 myself. We don't tend to buy much drink for the house so my guess is we're looking at 30-40 tins

Just got a monzo ping telling me my partner managed to spend £160 in Aldi. Hell of an effort! I assume they clapped her out of the shop

I'm delighted to announce the first close of the #WorkerTech Fund, the UK's first impact investment fund dedicated to improving low-paid work from Resolution Ventures. This builds on great work @resolutionfoundation over the last 5 years. Find out more: www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/laun...

Finally, today’s 4.7% total pay growth figure will set next year’s state pension increase: set to rise £11 per week. Working-age benefits will likely rise by less (linked to Sep inflation), so the triple lock is again set to increase the gap in state support for pensioners versus younger people.

Of course, slowing pay growth is less good news for workers. With inflation rising, real earnings growth has pretty much come to a halt. In real terms, average weekly pay has basically not risen since last October, having grown strongly before that.

Overall pay growth would be slower still were it not for April’s minimum wage increase. Pay growth has been strongest in affected sectors and for affected workers. Since January 2025 wages in wholesale, retail and hospitality have grown at twice the rate (5.2%) of the whole economy (2.5%).

Pay growth is slowing especially quickly in the most recent data. The growth rate on the previous quarter is equivalent to 3.9% annually.