The Budget Lab

Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs

Read the analysis: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eva...

New report today featured in @financialtimes.com article, "AI is not killing jobs," by @senojerialc.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/c9f9...

New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/

Tomorrow. September 30 at noon EDT. Join this timely webinar to discuss tariffs in an uncertain legal environment. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update out tonight, incorporating the heavy truck, furniture, and pharmaceutical tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday. Details are still sparse; we will update in the future as more specifics about the policy are published.
In brief...
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Join us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain
Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social

The Effect of Tariffs on Poverty

New report from @budgetlab.bsky.social about the effects of tariffs on poverty. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eff...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all tariffs through Sept 3. This is a major update. We:

• incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares;
• show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026.

In brief...
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Opinion | Trump vs. the U.S. Economy

@natasharsarin.bsky.social spoke with @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social on where the economy is going and @budgetlab.bsky.social's latest work. Listen here: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/o...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all 2025 tariffs through today, including the higher 50% rate on India. In brief...
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New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the Administration's new list of "reciprocal" tariffs published last night and going into effect August 7, as well as maintaining the 25% rate on Mexico. In brief...
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New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief...
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We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief...
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The next wave of Trump tariffs are expected to go into effect on Friday NPR speaks with Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale, about trade deals and tariffs ahead of a Friday deadline imposed by President Trump.

Listen to @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @npr.org
discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief...
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New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1.
In brief...
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New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief...
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Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r...
10/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief...
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Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r...
10/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1.

In brief...
1/10

@tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com includes @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis in latest article. Read the full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/dis...

Today. Noon ET. Join this timely webinar about the macroeconomics impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

'The largest redistribution from poor to rich in a single bill in American history.' Trump tariffs, budget bill could cut U.S. household income, new report says New research from the Yale Budget Lab suggests that the combination of tariffs and the GOP budget bill could cut the after-tax incomes of many American households. Ernie Tedeschi and Justin Wolfers di...

Watch @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @11thhourmsnbc.bsky.social discuss the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social report about the combined distributional effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and of tariffs: www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...

Register for the next @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar on Monday, June 23 at noon ET. A timely discussion of the potential macroeconomic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update through June 16, incorporating:

• Broader scope for the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs to include some steel-derivative products.

• Relaxation of Chinese export restrictions on magnets & rate minerals.

• New distributional methodology.

1/9

👀 Remember these ~distributions~ on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”?

Then, boy, do I have news for you.

Taking the bill and tariffs together, the bottom **80%** of households are worse off, @budgetlab.bsky.social found.

Combined Distributional Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and of Tariffs

Read the full report: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis about the combined distributional effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and Tariffs in @jacobbogage.bsky.social's Early Brief @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the...