OSINT KINGFISHER

Ukraine will stop Russian fuel exports completely😃

The more Trump starts to believe that Ukraine can destroy Russia, the better.

It might make him start acting (sanctions?).

Because if Ukraine destroys Russia without US support, then Trump won’t get the Noble price. So he somehow needs to become part of this win to claim a decisive contribution.

ChristoGrozev@bsky.social on X: "Important fact check, from @marcelvandenber" / X Important fact check, from @marcelvandenber

Hi Arnout, heb je dit gelezen? Wellicht eea rectificeren?

x.com/christogroze...

Nice article, but you have used wrong patriot numbers here:

“Ukraine currently has five Patriot batteries, three provided by the United States, as well as one from Romania and another jointly supplied by Germany and the Netherlands.”

The Liberian president might even be old enough to remember what the word “groceries” means

I don’t understand why Europe doesn’t order 10-20 SAMP/T NG for Ukraine.

Patriot is bettet for short term, but it will also keep delivering headaches because of US. The sooner SAMP/T NG is ordered, the sooner the headaches will be over.

Obviously, it’s not entirely black and white. However, it does show that in both scenarios, Iran has—at the very least—some paradoxical incentives to present the opposite scenario as true. So treat their statements on the matter with even more skepticism than usual.

The second case is that the uranium is actually still intact.

In that case, Iran might be perfectly fine with the world believing it has been destroyed. That illusion would give them the opportunity to continue developing nuclear weapons in secret, hoping the rest of the world lets its guard down.

First, the case that the uranium has been destroyed.

If that’s the case, Iran has an interest in maintaining the appearance that its uranium stockpile remains intact. This could serve as a deterrent by creating the illusion that they are on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon.

There is a funny paradox in the message that Iran might want to share about the current state of the uranium.

Let’s assume both cases one by one:

You don’t hold any escalation cards anymore. All have them have already been used

"...and then Trump looks at me and says, 'You don't have the cards right now!'"

Insane! Thanks for the great work of documenting all these losses🙌🙌

Visually confirmed Russian tank losses have now reached:

4️⃣0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣

Insane.

Furthermore, threats and strength is the only language that Russia “understands”.

They see “de-escalations” and diplomatic solutions as invitations to keep escalating.

4 or 5 milestones?

Unfortunately it is not a new package, see:

Het zou pas echt helpen als je je zou uitspreken om de 200+ mjd aan Oekraine te overhandigen.

Met dat bedrag kan UA zich tot de tanden bewapenen.

Als Europa dat voor elkaar had gekregen waren al deze slachtoffers helemaal niet gevallen.

Thanks!

What a mess. So how many more IRIS-T SLM to be delivered this year? 4?

The Atlantic has published the full correspondence from a Signal chat where strikes on Yemen were discussed.

www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

But I don’t have any proof or inside info to back this theory so we will just need to wait and see.

If it is true, then we will probably find out soon as that person will be fired