John Pollock

China’s leaders’ meeting confirms Xi’s authority and shows technological self-reliance is now the priority At the Fourth Plenum of the Communist Party of China’s leadership, President Xi Jinping outlined a bold shift in China’s economic development model under its next Five-Year Plan.

The sheer scale of the reshuffle at the top of the People's Liberation Army once again underscores Xi Jinping’s unchallenged authority at the height of China’s political hierarchy.

My latest for @chathamhouse.org’s international affairs magazine.

Using previously unseen Maxar satellite images we document Israel’s air campaign against the Houthis. The TLDR is that Israel won’t tolerate Iran building up the Houthis into a Hezbollah-like force.

Despite the Gaza ceasefire, the Israel–Houthi conflict may resume Satellite images reveal some of the damage of Israel’s recent airstrikes against Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen before the recent pause in hostilities. But analysis suggests that although the Iran-b...

Despite the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel will not tolerate Iran sending weapons to Yemen and turning the Houthis into the next Hezbollah.

I and my co-author write for @theworldtoday.org documenting Israel's air campaign against the Houthis in the Red Sea with Maxar images📸 and what may come next.

China purges nine top commanders in People’s Liberation Army Xi Jinping’s targets in anti-corruption drive include PLA’s No 2 General He Weidong

China purges nine top commanders in People’s Liberation Army

Egypt is crucial to Trump’s Gaza plan – but fears a security vacuum after an Israeli withdrawal Egypt wants to lock in a long-term commitment from other countries to ensure it is not left to secure Gaza alone.

In the coming days Egypt will become a crucial player in Gaza. Cairo will be vital in facilitating the flow of aid into the territory and Egyptian troops could potentially deploy as peacekeepers.

Opinion | Trump Isn’t Busting Drug Cartels. He’s Settling Scores.

"What some powerful members of the Trump administration want is regime change, and they want it as cheaply as possible."

Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com on the Trump administration's mobilisation of the US military against Venezuela ⬇️

At this point any US military aid or support for Europe and Ukraine should be viewed as a bonus under this president.

Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.

Israel’s attack on Qatar shows why it’s time for a Gulf defence union Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states would be better served by integrating their defences than relying on other external partners.

In the last six years, the Gulf Arab states have been attacked by both Israel and by Iran. In both instances, Washington did not protect them or respond militarily.

The consistency with which Donald Trump makes excuses for Vladimir Putin is truly beyond alarming at this point.

The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.

Enough is enough. After the drone incursion into Poland deterrence needs to be re-established with the Russians.

The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.

Egypt now sees Israel as an imminent threat At an emergency summit in Doha, President Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.

At an emergency summit in Doha, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.

You love to see it and a packed edition too as we head into the Autumn 🍂.

Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇

Why ending the war in Sudan should be a higher priority for the West As world leaders gather for the UN General Assembly, now is the time to put the focus back on Sudan and build international support for ending the war.

A Russian naval base, the growing Iranian presence in Port Sudan and the risk posed by terrorist groups seeking a haven are all reasons why Western governments should give a higher priority to Sudan.

China is using the SCO summit and Victory Day parade to showcase its vision of a new world order China is sending a clear message: it wants to reshape the world order. And it has the power to do it.

"Eight decades after the Second World War ended, China no longer views itself as a mere participant in history but as the architect of a new world order."

A fascinating read by my @chathamhouse.org colleague Yu Jie on the key signals China is sending via the SCO summit and 'Victory Day' parade.

China is using the SCO summit and Victory Day parade to showcase its vision of a new world order China is sending a clear message: it wants to reshape the world order. And it has the power to do it.

China is sending a clear message: it wants to reshape the world order. And it has the power to do it.

Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region

Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks a significant escalation but not a shift in Russia’s strategic outlook – one rooted in resisting EU and NATO influence in the Black Sea.

Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska: Early analysis from Chatham House experts Chatham House analysts give their initial reaction and insights after US President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage on Friday.

“Trump gave Putin more space to manipulate, mislead and buy time. Alaska has emboldened Putin, who is likely to prolong, not end, the war.”

Orysia Lutsevych on the Alaska summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump for @chathamhouse.org⤵️

Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska: Early analysis from Chatham House experts Chatham House analysts give their initial reaction and insights after US President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage on Friday.

“There are dangers still to watch for. Trump is now once again looking to Zelenskyy to take steps towards peace. Having failed to make any impression on Putin, Trump is turning to the softer target.”

@keirgiles.bsky.social offers his analysis on the Alaska summit⤵️

Trump could hand Putin far more than Ukraine. Europe should be afraid The Russian President may well be approaching this week's meeting with far broader plans than Donald Trump once again endorsing his current war aims in Ukraine

"Ukraine and Europe risk being once again frozen out of the conversation about their future. In the case of Europe, that’s a damning indictment."

Read @keirgiles.bsky.social latest on the upcoming summit in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, for @theipaper.com⤵️

A fascinating read by @chathamhouse.org’s Middle East team on the dynamics at play in Lebanon following the war in September-October last year and what it means for Israel, Hezbollah, the US and Lebanon.

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Lebanon’s moment of truth The Lebanese government must stop shirking its responsibilities and push Hezbollah to disarm – taking advantage of the historic momentum in the region.

With Hezbollah badly mauled following its war with Israel and much of its leadership destroyed, the United States sees an opportunity to end a long-standing threat to Israel and Lebanon.

"Although Israel and the United States did considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran may be able to produce the fissile material required for about ten nuclear weapons within half a year."

Stark analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region

A fascinating new report by @galipdalay.bsky.social and Natalie Sabanadze for @chathamhouse.org.

It covers the ambitions of Russia in the Black Sea region, 🇷🇺🇹🇷 ties, the invasion of Ukraine and China's regional interests also.

A brilliant read on one of the world's most contested maritime domains⤵️

China–EU summit is unlikely to improve relations amid key differences on trade and Ukraine war The Beijing summit shows that China–EU ties continue to be overshadowed by ongoing grievances.

Today’s China–EU summit in Beijing is meant to mark 50 years of diplomatic ties, but China and Europe remain deeply divided over trade and the war in Ukraine.

Read Yu Jie's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest for @chathamhouse.org ⤵️

An important read by my @chathamhouse.org colleagues on how the UK should approach the Indo-Pacific region.

Independent Thinking: Will Trump deliver for Ukraine? Jaroslava Barbieri, John Lough and Samir Puri join the podcast to discuss whether Donald Trump is shifting his views on Ukraine and Russia.

Podcast🎙️| Will Trump deliver for Ukraine?

Jaroslava Barbieri, John Lough and Samir Puri join the podcast to discuss whether Donald Trump is shifting his views on Ukraine and Russia.

Apple: apple.co/4m80Qs9
Spotify: bit.ly/458Fepz

Find it shocking that the story about the Afghan files is being turned into a story about immigration on R4 by Rajan and Healy. This is about public scrutiny, government decision-making, doing right by those who've supported the British armed forces and British operations overseas. Not immigration.

"This will lead to a reimagination of Turkish citizenship, the idea of the Turkish nation and Turkey's geopolitical identity."

@galipdalay.bsky.social (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and what it means for 🇹🇷, via @aljazeera.com

The Entente Cordiale has never looked better and neither has the Mall.

Truly stunning weather in London today for Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the UK 🇫🇷🇬🇧.

The fading power of Xi Jinping In a system built on secrecy, no one knows the reality behind the scenes, but there are signs China’s leader could be in political trouble

“China’s economy has been growing at roughly the same pace as the world economy since 2020, meaning that China’s share of global GDP – the best measure of relative national power – is now flatlining. By this indicator, China is no longer a rising country.”