John Pollock

War, a Trump-imposed deal or internal regime collapse: for Tehran, none of the options are good | Sanam Vakil Iran’s leaders now face unprecedented peril. The regime has lost its footing, and the global mechanisms to avoid conflict no longer work, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

Iran is confronting a strategic reality it has never faced before – a simultaneous crisis of domestic legitimacy and a threat of external attack so severe that regime survival can no longer be taken for granted.

Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️

"The UK should be engaging with China, but should be doing so in a structured way, avoiding the red flag areas relating to issues of national security."

@jkynge.bsky.social on Keir Starmer's visit to China and the opportunities and challenges in engaging with Beijing, via BBC News ⤵️

"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."

@jkynge.bsky.social on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.

Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4qwKdJ7

"This year will be the most consequential year for the Islamic Republic. There will either be transition from within or forced transition."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️

The simple fact is that if Joe Biden had delivered a speech at Davos as rambling and as disjointed as what we saw Trump deliver there would have been uproar in the US and calls to remove him from office.

Instead news organisations feel compelled to explain away what we saw and imply a strategy.

The strong ‘abusive husband’ energy emanating from the United States towards Europe is both depressing and also unsurprising.

And just like an abusive spouse the shock of Europe (and Canada) leaving the US will mean the abuse and vitriol will get worse with little to no self-reflection.

China is testing South Korea in the Yellow Sea Could it become the next big maritime flashpoint?

What happens next in the Yellow Sea will speak volumes about China’s true intentions towards South Korea

"We are witnessing the slow downfall, evolution, perhaps collapse of the Islamic Republic. There are a thousand ways this could evolve."

Sanam Vakil joined Francine Lacqua to discuss the protests in Iran and their impact on the future of the Islamic Republic, via @bloomberg.com ⤵️

1.2 million Russian casualties in Ukraine overall.

"Without strong and coordinated support from the US, it's hard to see how protestors inside Iran can brave the repression which has been extraordinary."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️

"These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️

"The Iranian state is reaching a dead-end of its own. There's not much they can do besides brutality."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic of Iran amid widespread protests, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social ⤵️

The Danger of the Maduro Model for Iran The country should not expect salvation from abroad, but define what kind of political future it wants, writes Sanam Vakil.

The ouster of Nicolás Maduro suggests that Washington’s priority is leverage rather than liberation, and compliance rather than collapse. For the Iranian people, that is a bleak prospect.

Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on what events in Venezuela mean for Iran, via @time.com⤵️

"The protests speak to the continued legitimacy crisis that the Islamic Republic faces. The economic dynamics in the country are devastating."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the Today programme to discuss the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC Radio 4.

US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO’s future. But European countries are not helpless US threats to annex Greenland following the attack on Venezuela should be taken seriously. European countries have important leverage they should be prepared to use.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that an attack on Greenland would end NATO. This is not an exaggeration.

Oman, eastern Yemen, and the fragile geometry of neutrality Yemen’s neighbour has learned the painful lesson that neutrality in the conflict next door offers no immunity, only the hope of containment.

After a decade of joint military intervention, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates now find themselves on opposing sides in Yemen.

"The Iranian government led by Masoud Pezeshkian is looking to placate popular concerns, get strikers in urban areas off the streets and buy some time as Iran is facing multiple threats."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC News ⤵️

If this is confirmed, then the capture of Nicolás Maduro is the most significant operation conducted by US special forces since the raid that killed Bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011.

Explosions hit Venezuelan capital Caracas Residents report loud blasts and aircraft flying over the city

Explosions hit Venezuelan capital Caracas ft.trib.al/OC2sZmM

"Iranians have held deep seated grievances against the system for many decades. They've been protesting consistently since 2009."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest round of anti-government protests sweeping across Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️

My head says the regime in Iran will find a way to survive these protests, my heart hopes that this time it will finally be the end of the Islamic Republic.

An imminent Indian ballistic missile test highlights escalation risks in the Indian Ocean A possible test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese research ships, highlights how deterrence dynamics among nuclear-armed states are making the wider Indian Ocean re...

A test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese ships watching the test, highlights the growing tensions between China and India in the Indian Ocean.

Egypt’s foreign policy will remain too little, too late in 2026 Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt is likely to accommodate Trump’s preferences on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey and focusing on reviving its struggling economy.

Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt will try to accommodate Donald Trump on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey — and focus on reviving its struggling economy.

The invasion of Iraq ensured that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop.

Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.

Anyone who knows anything about Polish history and Russia’s incredibly violent contribution to it knows that this is a stupid thing to write.

It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.

Only Iran can disarm Hezbollah Weapons underpin the group’s alliance with Tehran and its political power in Lebanon. Any new US–Iran nuclear deal must require Tehran to compel Hezbollah to disarm.

Despite the danger of a new war with Israel, and a deteriorating strategic environment following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah is still rejecting any compromise.

The Donbas region remains an intractable issue in talks between Russia and Ukraine Europe should look to history to prepare for the realities of long-term occupation of Ukrainian territory.

🇺🇦 | The Donetsk towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are key parts of Ukraine's ‘fortress belt’. Were they to fall to Russia, or to be ceded, Ukraine's security would be at risk.

@samirpuri.bsky.social on why the Donbas region matters to Ukraine — and why Russia wants it⤵️

China’s record $1 trillion-plus trade surplus shows the renminbi should be allowed to appreciate China’s surging high-tech competitiveness, weak appetite for imports and undervalued renminbi have fuelled the huge surplus – but the trend is unsustainable.

🇨🇳 | A jump in trade with non-US markets, including the EU and Global South countries, has helped Beijing shrug off the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs.

Read James Kynge's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️

Fair to say that going from quotes like this, the US National Security Strategy comes far more from JD Vance’s worldview than Elbridge Colby’s ‘prioritise China’ outlook.

It’s bad for Europe, bad for the transatlantic relationship and above all bad for America’s position in the world.