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Daniel Racek

@dracek.bsky.social

Head of Data Science for Conflict Research CCEW @CISS PhD in Statistics from LMU

15 Followers  |  30 Following  |  6 Posts  |  Joined: 30.07.2023  |  1.6828

Latest posts by dracek.bsky.social on Bluesky

@lmumuenchen.bsky.social @jrssa.bsky.social

31.07.2025 13:12 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Making explicit use of the grid-based structure, model estimation can be carried out efficiently with the R package mgcv, allowing for complex model fits over large sets of areas (e.g. continents). We provide a tutorial on how researchers can apply our method for their own work in our paper. [5/5]

31.07.2025 13:10 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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We demonstrate how conflict is triggered across cells, over both varying distances and time lags. Diffusion is heavily driven by population structures. Conflict generally breaks out in densely populated areas and from there diffuses, disproportionately affecting less populated areas. [4/5]

31.07.2025 13:01 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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We develop a generalized additive model that smooths across the spatio-temporal history of each observation, to capture these diffusion effects. Using conflict data from UCDP & PRIO grid cells across Africa, we analyze diffusion up to 550km in distance and 24 months in the past. [3/5]

31.07.2025 13:01 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Armed conflict exhibits substantial diffusion, i.e., spreading, across space and time. However, existing statistical models do not analyze nor fully capture these complex transmission processes. [2/5]

31.07.2025 13:01 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
Preview
Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A nonparametric smoothing approach Abstract. Facilitated by advancements in conflict event databases, studies have moved towards predicting armed conflict and understanding its determinants

📢 NEW PAPER ALERT
Our paper “Capturing the spatio-temporal diffusion effects of armed conflict: A non-parametric smoothing approach” got published in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A.

Many thanks to my co-authors P. Thurner & G. Kauermann.
academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...
[1/5]

31.07.2025 13:01 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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🚨New Preprint (wish it were less timely)🚨
We map everyday behavioral patterns of authoritarians using smartphone data, providing an updated portrait of authoritarianism in the digital age. w/ Timo Koch, @clemensstachl.bsky.social, @dracek.bsky.social, Ramona Schoedel, et al
osf.io/preprints/ps...

16.04.2025 19:52 — 👍 10    🔁 4    💬 1    📌 1

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