Jake Embrey

Undefined benefit: Projections and anchors as guides to retirement decumulation Most defined contribution retirement income systems assume that retiring participants have the know-how and confidence to turn their lump sum savings …

Forthcoming in JBEF: “Undefined benefit: Projections and anchors as guides to retirement decumulation” by B. R. Newell, H. Bateman, L. Dobrescu, J. Embrey, R. Nian, and S. Thorp. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Undefined benefit: Projections and anchors as guides to retirement decumulation Most defined contribution retirement income systems assume that retiring participants have the know-how and confidence to turn their lump sum savings …

Those that save adequate amounts for retirement often spend much less than they can afford once they actually retire. We investigate the effects different anchors and projections have on people's retirement spending behaviour in this new paper.

This kid is bound for Booth

Just finished reading the article and I cannot believe the Kissinger part is real. Pure, unadulterated comedy.

Investor Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: ‘The whole bull run is because of an influx of money’ [FREE TO READ] The physicist and hedge fund manager on why the efficient markets theory is ‘all wrong’, economists with ‘mathematics envy’ — and what Camus can teach us about compromise

300 paywall jumps for Robin's MainFT lunch with Jean-Philippe Bouchaud. Get one before someone else does.

on.ft.com/3K7Or9T

i think it's probably right that a lot of the bluster from the state about cracking down on liberals and free expression belies a rather limited capacity to actually do so at scale, but 1. a lot of the chilling of free expression can be achieved just by the threat, making an example out of a

Congrats Mickey! Very well deserved.

US campuses seek a safe space for debate after Charlie Kirk’s murder The assassination comes as universities are under pressure to expose students to a more diverse range of views

>"Free speech is being stifled by 'The Left' and we must ensure there is adequate debate on campus"

> "We must simultaneously pursue the firing of professors, managers, and anyone else who dares exercise the freedoms provided them by the first amendment"

www.ft.com/content/b1c5...

@popwatson.bsky.social did all the hard yards on this one, I learned a lot about a field I'm otherwise an amateur in working on this project.

New paper! Different to my usual schtick concerning cognitive costs. We analysed differences in learning between depressed and healthy students and whether Pavlovian biases differed between them. We found mixed evidence... have a read!
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

A timeline of cognitive costs in decision-making Recent research from economics, psychology, cognitive science, computer science, and marketing is increasingly interested in the idea that people face cognitive costs when making decisions. Reviewing ...

The TiCS issue featuring our paper on "A timeline of cognitive costs in decision-making" is now available online 😄

Honored to have been a part of this awesome interdisciplinary mega-collab led by Christin Schulze (UNSW Sydney)

www.cell.com/trends/cogni...

Are metabolic costs needed to explain cognitive fatigue? When we exercise, our muscles ache, fuel reserves (glucose, ATP) deplete, and the hours that follow are well described by the word ‘fatigue’. Prolonged thinking, too, comes with costs; while we might not gasp for breath during an exam, everyone is familiar with the feeling of exhaustion after a sustained bout of cognitive effort. In their review, Pessiglione et al. [1] formalize this intuition with an integrative model that combines motivational and metabolic mechanisms. Their MetaMotiF framework offers a compelling account of why the exertion of cognitive control becomes increasingly difficult over time.

Online Now: Are metabolic costs needed to explain cognitive fatigue?

After scrolling Twitter, it will take you a while to get back into “work mode”. Why is this the case? Our new work (out now in Psych Review), led by Ivan Grahek and Xiamin Leng, explores the costs of adjusting cognitive control to meet different goals:
psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...

🧵 A thread:

Out now, in case you prefer to read things (as I do) in journal format
www.cell.com/trends/cogni...

Guy In Philosophy Class Needs To Shut The Fuck Up

Guy In Philosophy Class Needs To Shut The Fuck Up https://theonion.com/guy-in-philosophy-class-needs-to-shut-the-fuck-up-1819568055/

It's true: This is the first project from our lab that has a "Merch" page!

Get yours @ www.perceptionresearch.org/anagrams/mer...

I want everyone to close their eyes and imagine a world where AI is wildly successful in the next 5 years. Billions use it every day, governments build data centers as fast as they can, millions of lives are saved by its disease cures, and Sam Altman wins a Nobel. Imagine what OpenAI stock would do.

Finally got around to reading that Aeon article. Safe to say I’m even more steadfast in my view that the brain is a computer—that was thoroughly unconvincing.

"the computational metaphor" in cognitive science is not a metaphor. computational processes are attributed to the mind/brain in the most dead-literal sense. one can disagree with it but (1) it's not as simple as discarding a metaphor and (2) boy is there a lot of data that has to be explained!

This is one question in the field that properly excites me—not to say I don’t love consumer behaviour!—so if you hate it (or like it) let us know.

We outline some of the computational and motivational factors that may contribute to fatigue and also highlight what we perceive to be a lack of current support for metabolic costs. Given the history of fatigue research—see ego depletion—we think some skepticism is healthy!

New letter by @minzlicht.bsky.social and I forthcoming in TiCS on whether neurometabolic costs are necessary to explain cognitive fatigue. While the origins of fatigue may turn out to be metabolic, we argue there isn’t yet sufficient evidence for such theories. osf.io/preprints/ps...

Sunday at the garden party for Curtis Yarvin and the new, new right [FREE TO READ] What you learn at a gathering of neoreactionaries, Very Online rightwingers and the formerly cancelled

I spent the day with Curtis Yarvin and the "dissident right" at a garden party in Surrey and wrote quite a few words about it.

My cover story for today’s FT Magazine

on.ft.com/4ooXS4t [GIFT LINK! 🎁]

Always kinda liked Nathan's articles. Kinda doubting my own judgement now given how bad this post is.

This implies you're not flying first class. Peasant

*well, our estimates of participants’ cognitive ability. Here’s the preprint. We demonstrate the general effect and also interrogate potential reasons this relationship exists + consequences for theorists and practitioner. osf.io/preprints/ps...

New preprint with @krefeldschwalb.bsky.social. We show that the smarter* people are, the greater the correlation between distinct estimates of their economic preferences.

OK, Ackman is obviously the world’s biggest bozo, but I fail to see how saying you inherited good genes is “eugenics”. Are these people saying that genes don’t impact behaviour, or that you don’t inherit genes from your parents?

Trader Joe's is sold out of cheese curds. Fair enough to call 911, right?