Thomas Durfee

The existence of Investment Savings/Liquid Money implies the existence of solid money, Bose Einstein Condensate money, and time crystal money.

#EconSky #NumbersDay

Goatees are in the shape of an O around the mouth, coincidence?

An engaging TWFE DiD read.

Bonus: The post rock band Red Sparrowes made a concept album around from the perspective of farmers during the mass extermination of sparrowes during the Great Leap Forward. As timing would have it, next month is the album's 20th anniversary.
youtu.be/fFgAsGqntrA?...

This is the first question I get these days when I tell people what I do.
There is no plan.

I leave the classroom feeling dejected a lot now man. I moved back to blue books last semester. During the final, I kid you not, 60% of the class took “bathroom breaks” so they could run to the bathroom and put the question in LLMs in their phone.

Even literally hand writing answers didn’t help.

But thank goodness we all agreed on what heterodox means, and that there are no other salient clevages.

The OSU provost announced they wanted AI to be part of the Fall curriculum. Have you been given best practices or resources on how to make this transition, or has it been faculty on their own?
I've been looking for an example of a place that does it right as a model. So far I'm pessimistic.

Figure from Ernie Tedeschi titled nonfarm payroll employment percent revisions

Important to remember that because of the incredible work of government statisticians, initial BLS employment estimates have become MORE accurate.

Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past

excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

We need to tread lightly. If this goes poorly, they'll try to bring back swing.

The Saturday Night Mathacre

Am Econ Assn speaks out about firing the #BLS Commish.

"It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as [better] data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor--not failure or bias."

I used this data for my dissertation on minimum wage exemptions.

BLS data informs when people move, where businesses locate, how we advocate for policy, and how we support claims of need or progress.

Going after the person who put the marks your measuring tape does not make you taller.

The media coverage of the dismissal of the BLS commissioner as another “wild time in Trumpland” shows that the media is more committed to entertainment than news. Any reputable news organization should report what the BLS does, why it is important, and why its work should not be politicized.

Last week, I spoke with a fellow grad student about how to cluster standard errors and use weights to aggregate in the CPS, given their identification strategy and their data universe.
Last week was different than this week.

Last week, I spoke with a fellow grad student about how to cluster standard errors and use weights to aggregate in the CPS, given their identification strategy and their data frame.
Last week was different than this week.

In light of recent news on verifiable data, I am thrilled to announce I am 7' tall, can bench press a Volkswagen, and have never sneezed.

Marginal cost is monthly, the rest is a sunk cost, model the choice to enter or exit with a separate normal form game.
Just a guess, never needed that before.

Statement from the Friends of BLS, which includes former BLS Commissioners appointed by Obama and Trump. bsky.app/profile/aaro...

Alright, gotta look for new IVs. I'm pretty sure Bessent can only do cubic splines, so us inference people might be able to sneak by
\s
Seriously tho, good grief.

Lego my ego death

It's weird that the next establishment revisions are going to cover everything after November 8th 2016

This

@jcht.bsky.social 's eye just twitched and they don't know why.

The best way to honor Keynes is by wearing linen and showing clavicle in Q3.

Hospitals are like “Get lots of rest. Here’s a room full of random beeps and lights you cannot turn off or you could die. Sweet dreams!”

"WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 1, 2025) – The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) announced today that it will begin an orderly wind-down of its operations"

cpb.org/pressroom/Co...

My brief thoughts on today’s #JobsReport: The labor market is showing softness with payrolls increasing by only 73,000 & the unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Payroll growth in May and June was overstated by 250K‼️. (1/9)

Wow, weak July #jobsreport. Headline a touch softer than expectations, but real surprise is huge downward revisions to May & June.

-Payrolls grew just 73,000, below expectations
-Surprisingly large downward revisions to May (+144k to +19k) and Jun (+147k to +14k)
-Unemp up to 4.2%

#NumbersDay 1/

Immigration!

It may well be that this is what a healthy labor market in the US looks like now.

From @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
& me: www.aei.org/wp-content/u...

Labor supply growth has come to a screaming halt. This is the emp growth the US can sustain right now.