Thomas Durfee

New paranoia unlocked.
Is my computer acting buggy because it is new and needs drivers, or did the python library I just side loaded break something?

Errors are red
Functions are blue
You must follow posting guidelines
For stata to help you

The readme was read
But I don't have BLUE.
Leave out one term then
Try b1x2

Heat map using CDC data and PMC estimate of prevalence

Breaking: The CDC reports SARS-CoV-2 levels *quadrupled* in Minnesota in the past week.

Using harmonized wastewater estimates, we project 1 in 12 people in Minnesota are actively infectious. This is equivalent to a 59% chance of exposure in a room of 10 people....

Futures in Blue Books

So, I know times are taxing. If you need to scream, I got you.

Felines Navidad

Yeah, I feel underserved in the observational study Bayes department. I come across it in some time series macro models to create a path dependency in response to events. Don't know if I would prefer it to a Fixed Effect model with carefully chosen units of analysis, but that's my freq showing.

If lots of us use the same sample of the CPS or the ACS or the QCEW, then the sample results can be reproduced quickly (one less thing to worry about) and the peer debate becomes about the identification strategy of the counterfactual.

Metamorphosis is woke (unironic)

I love being a labor economist, where null is interesting if your model is still convincing.
Anytime a student tells me they are worried they didn't find statistically significant results, I remind them of David Card. Two Nobel winning papers had null results (NJ/PA minimum wage and Mariel Boatlift)

AI can never learn how to do true economic analysis. Adding more layers to your model? Child's play! Adding the word "novel" to your description of your model, now that is the mark of a true scholar

*strokes chin and nods*
"Mhmm. Heterodox methods*

Good morning.

ICE is still abducting people in Minnesota.

Median Voter Theory the streets, synthetic control in the spreadsheets.

Freakynomics

Steven Levitt's publisher is pissed

a society losing the plot in real time

Looks at the job market.

"Do you think my PhD will help me get into a good predoc?"

This Friday.

Note to self, teaching yourself structural Pissarides Search models during a pandemic and teaching 150 students is not going to "just be a quick third chapter"

:)

In the morning, I can go work at the coffee shop where coffee and a pastry costs $10.

OR I could go to MyBurger, which opens at 11, where cups of Hamm’s are $2 and get five of them. Get some work done there.

Another cog in the murder machine

The Food Assistance Landscape | Charlotte Ambrozek

Chatted with Jenny Ifft this week about the food assistance landscape, overviewing our public and private programs and where they're going
open.spotify.com/episode/26lX...

Welp, landlord asked us to take our "Be Pretti Good" sign down.

+11% rise in new unemployment insurance claims in week ending (WE) Jan 31, driven by rises across a broad set of states (PA, NY, WI, MD, MO, IL...)

That's a substantial rise. Keep an eye on it for signal of weakening of labor demand.

Birds use legs to grab stuff and arms to get around. People use arms to grab stuff and legs to get around. Birds are upside down people. Thank you for coming to my TED talk