Aureo de Paula

If this seems interesting to you, check our paper or NotebookLM podcast below!

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272725001215?via%3Dihub

https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/6c466a86-a8b3-42f3-b7ab-9e5718596ac1/audio

(7/7)

We do much more in the article! For example, we look at further measures of association and discuss our estimation protocol in detail – importantly, both skills and intergenerational regressions are estimated jointly. (6/7)

Interestingly, we also find that mother-child correlations are much higher than father-child! (This relationship remains even after robustness checks for alternative explanations such as different sample sizes.) (5/7)

This allows us to measure skills at the same age for parents and children. While correlations are lower than those measured contemporaneously and between other economic variables in related studies, they are still sizeable and significant! (4/7)

Here, we focus on “internalising” (e.g., focussing drive aothers) skills using the 1970 UK British Cohort Study, which follows all born in the UK on a week in Apr/1970 linking their info w their mums as well as (eventual) kids! (3/7)

‪The literature has registered association across several meaningful economic variables and outcomes across generations. Socio-emotional skills are also important! (2/7)

This is a (very) short thread on a recent paper with the great Orazio Attanasio and Alessandro Toppeta on “Intergenerational Mobility in Socio-Emotional Skills” (forthcoming at ‪@jpube.bsky.social)! (1/7)

@ucleconomics.bsky.social @uclpolicylab.bsky.social‬ @sofi.su.se ‪@clscohorts.bsky.social

📣 Check out my latest article with R Inafuku, T Halliday and Lester Lusher on air population, test scores ...and a volcano!

Join @ucleconomics.bsky.social this May for this year's annual Gorman Lecture and Conference 2025.

Find out more about this year's programme and book your tickets ⬇️

We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!

This year's Gorman Lectures at UCL will be given by one of my heroes, Ariel Pakes. I can't wait!

It's been a while since I did a standard lit review thread, but here's one for #econsky #econtwitter about an important literature that's been growing recently: the effect of supply- and demand-side interventions on fertility in LMICs

We are recruiting an Econometrics Adviser. The role would suit someone with a recent PhD (or a masters and some experience), and an interest in empirical IO. This is a unique opportunity to work on high-profile cases and with great data!

www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...

Recently accepted to @reveconstudies.bsky.social, "Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China’s Shipbuilding Industry" from Barwick, Kalouptsidi and Bin Zahur:

www.restud.com/industrial-p...

We offer simulations and an application using data from the Current Population Survey. If this sounds interesting to you, make sure to check the article! (5/5)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.10117

To employ conformal inference, we construct a conformity score function which accounts for the set-valued nature of the outcomes of interest. The procedure accommodates (irreducible) prediction uncertainty, modelling uncertainty due to partial identification and sampling uncertainty. (4/5)

To do so we first characterise the shortest prediction interval (or set, more broadly!) in such cases. We then employ “conformal inference” to construct prediction sets with particular finite sample guarantees under censoring while maintaining consistency as the sample size grows. (3/5)

Interval data is pervasive. Surveys usually employ “bracketing” to avoid item nonresponse. Censoring is also present in many contexts. Here, we offer a prediction protocol for outcomes that are interval-valued! (2/5)

I have a new paper on “Prediction Sets and Conformal Inference with Censored Outcomes” with the great Weiguang Liu and Elie Tamer. Prediction Sets and Conformal… what? I know, I know! Here comes a (very) short thread on what we do in the paper. (1/5)

Production Function Estimation Using Subjective Expectations Data Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Agnes Norris Keiller presented a great paper with @paulaaureo.bsky.social and @johnvanreenen.bsky.social on how we can use data on firms' turnover and employment expectations directly in production function estimation.

www.nber.org/papers/w32725

2/

NEW #IFSWorkingPaper: Robust inference for the Frisch labor supply

Michael Keane and Timothy Neal argue the AR test should be widely adopted in lieu of the 2SLS t-test for estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity.

Read here: https://buff.ly/4fhBJ2G

The ONS has today released results from two new data collection efforts on public-sector productivity: a public-sector version of the existing Management and Expectations Survey and a public-sector time use survey.

Overall, management practices look similar in the public and private sectors.

1/

🚨New (very short) paper alert:
"Bayesian Fama-MacBeth Regressions" with @SBryzgalova and Jiantao Huang tinyurl.com/bddpezz6
🧵1/n #Finance #Econometrics

This is very much in the same spirit as the (more abstract) discussion in Rothenberg ("Identification in Parametric Models", Econometrica, 1971).

The coeffs in their eq (5) = your eq (4). Notice that their results establish that two diff par vectors will imply diff coeffs in that eq. The proof goes: "Consider two sets of structural parameters (α, β, γ , δ) and (α′, β′, γ ′, δ′) leading to the same reduced form..." to get a contradiction.

One other observation that occurs to me is that the identification result in Bramoulle, Djebbari and Fortin departs from the "reduced form" parameter. I suspect your result might relate to the (non-)identification of that parameter.

Thanks, Alex! I guess this would depend on the context. (In a panel setting as in Besley and Case (AER, 1995) or here: academic.oup.com/restud/advan... this would appear less troublesome to me.)

On the other hand, if the number of individuals in each group is finite and fixed but the number of groups grows or it is observed repeatedly, my intuition would be that one does not get the degeneracy result. I have not (yet) read the paper, but does this relate to your second result?

The paper looks very interesting! The result is intuitive as n goes to infinity which I believe is what you rely on, right? (It jives with the discussion in Manski's 1993 paper (p.535) highlighting variation in the peer averages for identification and noted here: www.ucl.ac.uk/~uctpand/eco...)

I am trying to be more active on here, and have not yet seen an IO or org econ starter pack, so here is an attempt at one:

go.bsky.app/Rchu8QX

Please shout out if I have forgotten someone, or when others join. #EconSky