Adrien Matray

Adrien Matray Explores the Human Algorithm: Navigating Economic Risks in the Age of Artificial Intelligence Dollar Thinking is your go-to blog for business and financial insights, providing the latest news on investments, savings, and financial wellness.

"Periods of rapid tech expansion attract skilled workers precisely when skills are most likely to become obsolete." Lessons from the dot-com era for navigating the AI boom. tinyurl.com/bde9fw5t

Adrien Matray and Johan Hombert on the Hidden Cost of AI's Gold Rush: What the Dot-Com Boom Taught Us About Human Capital | America Daily Post The numbers are staggering. Tech giants are pouring tens of billions into artificial intelligence, while AI startups command valuations that would have seemed...

Research on the dot-com boom reveals a troubling pattern for AI's gold rush: workers who joined tech in the late '90s earned 7% less 15 years on—not from bad picks, but rapid skill obsolescence. A warning for those chasing the hottest satisfies.
tinyurl.com/269bp7n5

Submit to: indpol.tradefin@gmail.com
🔗 inomics.com/conference/ind
ustrial-policies-in-a-globalized-and-financialized-world-1552095

#Econ #EconSky #IndustrialPolicy #InternationalTrade #Macroeconomics #CallForPapers

Call for paper: Industrial Policies in a Globalized and Financialized World
🏛️ Hosted by @AtlantaFed
📍 Atlanta, GA 📅 May 7–8, 2026
⏰ Submission deadline: Feb 15, 2026
Exploring how industrial policies interact with international finance, capital flows & global supply chains.

Line chart showing GDPnow estimate at 2.7%

On January 5, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q4 2025 is 2.7%: bit.ly/32EYojR.

Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: bit.ly/2TPeYLT.

Greater broadband access increased youth internet use and suicide ideation. Girls reported being cyberbullied and altering their body image, and boys reported getting less sleep, from Brandyn F. Churchill and Kathryn R. Johnson www.nber.org/papers/w34614

Welfare economics with multiple generations is fundamentally different. This paper shows why demographics create scope for intervention even when equilibria are Pareto efficient, from Sergi Barcons, Eduardo Dávila, and Andreas Schaab www.nber.org/papers/w34616

Measuring benefits to households from Mumbai’s new Metro rail system, from Palak Suri and Maureen L. Cropper www.nber.org/papers/w34613

Production networks help explain why Sudden Stops hit emerging markets harder. An input-output structure amplifies collateral constraints and global risk, even with same shocks, from Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Eugenio I. Rojas, Felipe Saffie, and Alvaro Silva www.nber.org/papers/w34604

Comic. [Instructions on package] High Altitude Cooking Instructions: 3,500-6,500 ft: Add ½ cup water, increase cook time to 12 minutes. 6,500-9,500 ft: Add ¼ cups water, increase cook time to 18 minutes. 250,000-450,000 ft: Orient reentry vehicle for aerodynamic stability. Deploy parachutes at 10,000 ft. Descend, keeping crew capsule tightly covered, for 3-4 minutes. After splashdown, follow sea level cooking instructions.

High Altitude Cooking Instructions

xkcd.com/3187/

Human capital is central to growth, and the elimination of poverty. Discussing obstacles to human capital accumulation and evidence on policies that can promote it, from Philippe Aghion, Ingvild Almås, and Costas Meghir www.nber.org/papers/w34602

Comic. [Diagram of electrical outlet with lines indicating normal shape of holes while shapes have been changed to accommodate more shapes, with parts labeled IEC Types A-O.] [caption] Wiring tip: To make your building friendly to international visitors, cut holes in your outlet plates to make them compatible with all fifteen IEC plug types.

Truly Universal Outlet

xkcd.com/3186/

We show that the existence of an equilibrium in the classic private value first price auction model hinges on a single statistic of the joint distribution of the players’ values, namely the lowest value in the support of the high-value distribution. buff.ly/qik5070

Top CEPR Discussion Paper of 2025 - DP19943
Do Temporary Cash Transfers Stimulate the #Macroeconomy? Evidence from Four Case Studies
Valerie Ramey
https://ow.ly/pRhM50XLr81
#CEPR_MG #EconSky #2025inReview

Comic. [Top panel: Long-necked dinosaur with red X over it.] [Bottom panel: two smaller dinosaurs the same shape except their neck isn’t long, while in the background there’s an extremely long neck criss-crossing the frame like a snake. Green check mark in center.] [caption] Thanks to modern paleontological reconstructions, we now know that most sauropods had short necks, and all those extra vertebrae belonged to the sauropod colony’s queen.

Sauropods

xkcd.com/3185/

Discussing the rebuilding of Ukrainian cities and presenting a theoretical framework for maximizing the benefits of Ukraine’s rebuilding effort to highlight the welfare effects of different allocations of post-war infrastructure, from Glaeser, Kirchberger, and Parkhomenko www.nber.org/papers/w34598

Examining how measures of well-being differ by survey mode, from David G. Blanchflower, Alex Bryson, and Alan J. Cui www.nber.org/papers/w34599

Top CEPR Publications of 2025:
Geneva 28: Geopolitical Tensions and International Fragmentation: Evidence and Implications
Anusha Chari, Nathan Converse, Arnaud Mehl, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Isabel Vansteenkiste, Maurice Obstfeld, David Wessel
https://ow.ly/ELZl50XM9TP
#2025inReview #EconSky

Firms differ widely in their use of new, specialized financial products, and these differences are closely linked to variation in external funding across firms, from Ana Babus, Matias Marzani, and Sara Moreira www.nber.org/papers/w34594

School boards matter as members' policy priorities—but not their demographic and professional identities—drive major shifts in spending, leadership, and student achievement, from Barbara Biasi, Minseon Park, John D. Singleton, and Seth D. Zimmerman www.nber.org/papers/w34590

Characterizing how technology shocks affect wages and job assignment when workers have multiple skills, separating earnings pass-through from reallocation, from Job Boerma, Andrea Ottolini, and Aleh Tsyvinski www.nber.org/papers/w34591

Image featuring headshot of Gregory Haile, Atlanta Fed board chair, and text. Text: Atlanta Fed Board of Directors Announces Presidential Search Gregory A. Haile Chair, Board of Directors

The Atlanta Fed has announced the launch of its search for its next president. Board chair Gregory Haile states that the committee is seeking a leader who will advance the Atlanta Fed’s values of integrity, excellence, and respect

Stay up to date: atlfed.org/4pcPkwp.

The extreme behavior of the stock market—heavy tails, skewness, time-varying volatility, and long memory—is explained by how investors learn about fundamentals, from Ian Dew-Becker, Stefano Giglio, and @pooyamolavi.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34584

Top CEPR Discussion Paper of 2025 - DP19923
Disentangling Monetary Policy, Central Bank Information, and Fed Response to News Shocks
Marek Jarocinski, Peter Karadi
https://ow.ly/ta7M50XLqSF
#CEPR_MEF #EconSky #2025inReview

The figure shows the widening of the average annual wage gap in France (in thousands of euros). The Average outside option wage is the weighted-average wage of non-teachers in occupations identified as outside options for teachers, using teacher exits from the profession. Weights account for both the average share of teachers exiting to a given occupation over the period 2009-2021 and the share of workers in an occupation in a given cell of age, sex, commuting zone and year. The Teacher wage varies per position on the pay scale and year. Both teaching wages and outside option wages are CPI-deflated to 2024 thousands of euros. Concerns about declining student achievements have become central in education debates, with teacher quality drawing attention as a key driver. This column examines how wages affect the quality of the teaching workforce by studying how uniform salary increases alter the composition of teachers who remain in the profession. Exploiting a French teacher salary reform, the author shows that uniformly increasing salaries improves workforce quality by disproportionately retaining better teachers.

Exploiting a French teacher salary reform, Desislava Tartova (@pse.bsky.social) shows that uniformly increasing salaries improves workforce quality by disproportionately retaining better teachers.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

The 34th CEPR/Study Center Gerzensee European Summer Symposium in Financial Markets (ESSFM) will take place in Gerzensee from 27-31 July 2026 and is dedicated to Banking Corporate Finance. The symposium is organized by Zhiguo He (Stanford University). This call for papers invites you to express your interest in attending this symposium, or to submit a paper proposal in any area of financial economics and related fields. The meeting will include daily seminars in the morning, in which participants present their work, as well as less formal evening seminars scheduled at the beginning of the Symposium. A substantial amount of time is reserved for independent work and collaborative research, which provides participants with a unique opportunity to interact and discuss each other's research. In addition, two mornings will be devoted to “focus sessions,” each of which concentrates on some recent developments in banking and corporate finance. To foster the desired interaction, we ask participants to spend one working week at the Symposium. Committing to attend for only two or three days is not fair to the speakers, to all those who spared the time to attend, and especially to the many researchers whose applications were turned down. A number of places at the symposium are specifically reserved for younger European scholars (based in Europe or overseas), who are especially encouraged to apply. Senior researchers are therefore requested to pass this information on to junior colleagues working in finance and related fields.

📢 #CallforPapers - European Summer Symposium in Financial Markets 2026 - Banking and Corporate Finance
ESSFM 2026 will take place in Gerzensee from 27-31 July and is organised by Zhiguo He.
Submit a paper or express interest in attending by 15 February.
cepr.org/events/europ...
#EconSky

Comic. [Two people in front of projected satellite image. A small portion of the image is pixelated squares.] PERSON 1: Wait, when was this imagery taken? Is this censorship the work of the contractor? One of our people? *Foreign actors!?* PERSON 2 with ponytail: Do we know who’s operating a facility at that location? PERSON 1: We can’t find *anything*. [caption] My hobby: Setting up big colored panels in the middle of nowhere as a prank on remote sensing people

Satellite Imagery

xkcd.com/3173/

Studying how the spatial distribution of income and commuting patterns within cities vary across the development spectrum, from Peter Deffebach, David Lagakos, Yuhei Miyauchi, and Eiji Yamada www.nber.org/papers/w34505