Karl Schamotta

This being the money shot:
“Overall, the 50% is:
- an overestimate
- extremely unlikely from just basic accounting relationships
- a pretence of a quarterly number that is definitely not one”

@peark.es @claudia-sahm.bsky.social @tomhancock.bsky.social et al, looks like we were right to express skepticism on that Moody’s number. Thread on the other site by Antoine Levy at Berkeley: x.com/levyantoine/...

This is a work of staggering genius:

From Frank Graves on the other site:

I’d been thinking of the US as a sort of late-stage Brazil, but early-stage Snow Crash is far more apt:

​​As Milton Friedman put it, “I say thank God for government waste. If government is doing bad things, it’s only the waste that prevents the harm from being greater”

Not the kind of action you’d want to see in the nation’s largest payroll providers:

$ADP $PAYX

Now is the time for Argentina to float the peso Staying the current monetary course implies more chaos, not less

(Barry Eichengreen).
www.ft.com/content/72e1...

That the cockroaches are emerging just as the US president starts making nuclear threats is a little too close to the nose. Stop overdoing it, scriptwriters.

Much like his first candidacy, media outlets are going to talk him into a third term, aren’t they.

Barbarians at the Fed's Gate Stablecoins are knocking and the Fed is letting them inside.

A brilliantly clear-eyed view on how dollar stablecoins might impact the Fed’s operations: @davidbeckworth.bsky.social Barbarians at the Fed's Gate: Stablecoins are knocking and the Fed is letting them inside

macroeconomicpolicynexus.substack.com/p/barbarians...

We’ve seen this movie before:

Here you go:

If the Fed chooses to end quantitative tightening at this meeting, it will join its counterparts elsewhere in slowing liquidity withdrawals:

It is literally a front page headline that a sitting second term President understands that the Constitution bars him from a third term.

It’s a German Martial Plan.

Senator Mitch McConnell on voting to end emergency tariff authorities: Kentucky bourbon has been caught in the trade war crossfire, tariffs harm the economy, "and no cross-eyed reading of Reagan will reveal otherwise"

US Treasury very likely back to being firmly underwater on its Argentinian intervention efforts:

Being an Anglo-Saxon country not great for borrowing costs right now.

The Argentinian peso has given back about half of this morning’s gain, driven by traders remembering that the Argentinian peso tends to Argentinian peso:

Mike Pence shares a Wall Street Journal column criticizing what it describes as Trump's "tantrum against Canada" over Ontario's ad quoting Reagan

For all the "If Milei works, it will be a signal to the rest of the region to get in line," I would suggest that if Milei works, it would signal that it is Argentina that is finally getting in line, having finally transitioned to functioning with a floating exchange rate, as begun by MX in 1995.

It’s still overvalued. Watch out below, and thanks for playing the forex.

Currency markets are serving TACO with a side of poutine this evening, bidding up the Canadian dollar even after Trump’s renewed tariff threats:

Wait until he hears that Reagan didn't trust the Russians.

Imagine being on Trump's legal team preparing for the upcoming Supreme Court oral arguments defending his illegal tariff policy, and seeing this.

Just a neverending torrent of dipshittery:

Seems broadly accurate to me, and Canadians are busy berating themselves for slower growth at the same time, ignoring that the US fiscal impulse has been vastly stronger.