Jesse Felder

OpenAI Is Suddenly in Major Trouble What was once a healthy lead over OpenAI's competition thanks to its blockbuster AI chatbot ChatGPT has turned into a razor-thin edge.

“We’re going to see a situation where ChatGPT was the early winner. They’re going to end up just like MySpace did with the inability to truly monetize and break away from the pack.“ futurism.com/artificial-i...

AI credit concerns playing out differently in investment grade and high yield, Goldman says Investor anxiety about the surge in AI-related debt is playing out differently across investment grade and high yield bonds, according to new research from Goldman Sachs.

“Until we see data centres being delivered on time and on budget and providing the computing power that they are intended to - and there still being the demand for it - it is untested. And that's why I think you need to be compensated like an equity...not debt.” www.reuters.com/business/ai-...

Are Warner takeovers the harbingers of financial apocalypse? www.ft.com/content/c403...

Seems pretty clear at this point that tariff hikes have led to higher core goods prices for households.

There’s a black hole where central banks’ theory of inflation should be Old assumptions about expectations and targets can no longer be relied upon

“Central banks no longer have a theory of inflation.” -Mervyn King, former Bank of England governor www.ft.com/content/7d8f...

‘Think tech stocks are expensive? Try Walmart. America’s biggest retailer has become a true investor darling.‘ www.wsj.com/business/ret...

How banks fuel the private credit boom Lenders emphasise their safety and private credit’s riskiness. In reality, the two are intertwined

“We’ve seen the movie before when we have all this shifting around of risk.” www.ft.com/content/535b...

Wall Street Races to Cut Its Risk From AI’s Borrowing Binge Wall Street is gearing up to lend massive amounts of money to the biggest players in artificial intelligence — and simultaneously trying to figure out how to protect itself from any bubble that its fi...

‘The urgency at Wall Street banks to shed risk is visible all over credit markets.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

AI’s Future May Be Written in Railroads’ Past The historian A.J.P. Taylor once quipped that the only thing people learn from the mistakes of the past is how to make new mistakes. But there are nevertheless many lessons to be learned if you look i...

‘In 1873, a group of railway men borrowed heavily to build a second trans-continental railway only to find themselves unable to pay back the loan. The digital cos. are doing the equivalent of building a second continental railroad by building competing AI machines.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

U.S. Banks' NDFI Exposure Continues to Surge adamjosephson.substack.com/p/us-banks-n...

‘Today, US private credit totals some $1.3 trillion, nearly half the $2.7 trillion in commercial and industrial loans made by commercial banks.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

AEP Wants to Dump 750 MW of Data Center Power. Why? Utilities getting burned on the AI speculation game

‘A visible crack in the AI/data-center hype cycle: AEP’s move to dump 750 MW of unneeded capacity into PJM’s auction is a signal of speculative data-center contracting and software-driven over-projection.‘ paulkedrosky.com/aep-wants-to...

‘So far this year, 237 leveraged ETFs have started, up from five in 2019.’ www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/b...

For those looking closely at PCE inflation here is the data on the PCE supercore which is up 3.259% from one year ago and is up 1pp above is pre pandemic average. This is what some of the hawks on the FOMC focus on when making policy judgements. #Econ #EconSky

‘A data dependent Fed would come to the conclusion that it should not cut interest rates next week.’ www.apolloacademy.com/default-rate...

January 2000: AOL buys Time WARNER

December 2025: NFLX buys WARNER brothers

FITCH: “.. The most pronounced bubble-like characteristics appear in data centers, which are experiencing record supply ..

“.. Sponsors are securing sites speculatively in power-constrained metros, often commencing construction before tenants are secured.” 👀

www.fitchratings.com/research/str...

The Spending Bubble Driving Corporate Profits Looks Set to Burst Worries about AI euphoria are missing the bigger picture, Brij Khurana writes in a guest commentary.

‘Corp. profits have been inflated by massive gov. deficits, ambitious business investment, and debt-funded shareholder returns. If fiscal stimulus subsides and household savings rates rise, the bubble that has sustained profits since 2008 might burst.‘ www.barrons.com/articles/ai-...

The Rise of AI Reasoning Models Comes With a Big Energy Tradeoff Nearly all leading artificial intelligence developers are focused on building AI models that mimic the way humans reason, but new research shows these cutting-edge systems can be far more energy inten...

‘AI reasoning models used 100 times more power on average to respond to 1,000 written prompts than alternatives without this reasoning capability or which had it disabled, according to a study released Thursday.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Speculators are piling into silver calls.

The metal's skew is now at its highest reading since March 8, 2022.

Skew measures how much more traders are willing to pay for calls than puts...

And right now, they’re paying up.

Get free market insights: tinyurl.com/6f6tny4r

The US may be running the wrong AI race China’s favouring of small and cheap models such as DeepSeek could prove to be the better bet

'Michael Power, former global strategist of Ninety One, reckons the US is making a “catastrophic strategic error” in betting so heavily on giant closed AI models. “China’s model is turning out to be far more effective in terms of usable compute in the real world.”’
www.ft.com/content/4561...

Crypto Reels from a $200 Billion Crash as Casino Crowd Moves On Crypto’s riskiest tokens are crashing on a scale that stands out even by the industry’s own volatile standards, abandoned by retail speculators saddled with humiliating losses and a growing sense the ...

‘A MarketVector index tracking 50 mid- and micro-cap tokens has fallen nearly 70% this year, hitting its weakest level since early 2020. Altcoins have now shed $200 billion on paper since the market peaked.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Morgan Stanley Considers Offloading Some of Its Data-Center Exposure Morgan Stanley, one of the key players in financing the artificial-intelligence race, is considering offloading some of its data-center exposure via a so-called significant risk transfer.

‘Morgan Stanley, one of the key players in financing the artificial-intelligence race, is considering offloading some of its data-center exposure via a so-called significant risk transfer.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Human Resource Stocks Point to a Weaker U.S. Job Market paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/stock-mark...

Anthropic Is on Track to Turn a Profit Much Faster Than OpenAI Financial documents from both companies show the different approaches they are taking to the AI boom.

‘Anthropic expects to break even for the first time in 2028. By contrast, OpenAI forecasts its operating losses that year to swell to about $74 billion—or roughly three-fourths of revenue—thanks to ballooning spending on computing costs.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/open...

Stocks’ irrational rate-cut rally And the prospects for a Hassett-led Fed

“The appointment tells you whether or not you’re going to have an independent Fed. Hassett is the most political choice that you can get next to appointing Don Jr. It’s widely perceived that he’d be very obedient to the president.” www.ft.com/content/b886...

Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair Some market participants worried candidate for top central bank job will be swayed by Trump on interest rates

‘The prospect of a dovish Fed chair was viewed as particularly worrisome to the big bond managers in the event that inflation in the US rises next year. The combination of loose monetary policy and higher inflation could ignite a sell-off in long-term Treasuries.‘ www.ft.com/content/ad4b...

Are We in a Stock Bubble? This Is the Only Thread You Need High valuations are supporting equity markets and the economy. Everyone has a view on whether it’s sustainable.

‘There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations. On the bearish end are investors like Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry while the bullish side includes OpenAI’s Sam Altman and investor Cathie Wood.’ www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Anthropic's AI bubble 'YOLO' warning Dario Amodei takes indirect shots at OpenAI's ‘YOLOing’ and big, circular deals. Also: More from the DealBook Summit and Meta's big hire.

“Even if the technology fulfills all its promises, I think there are players in the ecosystem who, if they just make a timing error, they just get it off by a little bit, bad things could happen.” sources.news/p/anthropics...

‘For the 1st time since '21, and 16th since 1930, stocks trailing 3-yr return topped 1.5 std devs above average. The more extreme the deviation, the lower return prospects, according to history, with 2 std dev moves affiliated with avg 12M forward -3% and median -9%.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/809