Jesse Felder

‘The 258k two-month net downward revision lies 3 standard deviations below the mean, putting the odds of such an event at less than 0.2%. For payrolls to be revised lower so sharply pushes the event into black swan territory — rare, extreme and hard to ignore.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

At $500 billion, OpenAI would be valued higher than all but the top 16 companies in the S&P 500 Index:

NASDAQ Composite up over 1% today despite more stock being down than up and more stocks making new lows than new highs.

S&P: “.. US corporate bankruptcies in July reached their highest monthly volume since 2020.

“.. Year-to-date bankruptcy filings totaled 446 through the end of July, the most for this seven-month period since 2010.” 👀

Bananafication Is the New Exceptionalism The critical variable to limit the damage may be Trump’s shift on defense policy.

‘If the rest of the world has a strategy (as opposed to a lack of will for the fight), it is to give Trump what he wants in return for retaining his military support, and wait for protectionism to blow up in his face.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘The fall in copper’s ratio versus gold is telegraphing weaker US growth ahead.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

“.. Only 3.1 million people visited Sin City in June, down 11.3% compared to last year ..” 👀

@nypost.com
www.foxnews.com/travel/las-v...

Data center construction is less than 0.2% of US GDP. A lot of the hyperscaler capex consists of equipment and chips that are not produced in the US. Thus, much of what is added to “I” in the GDP accounts must get deducted via “M” (imports).

US labour data agency was teetering even before Donald Trump fired its chief Funding and staff cuts have hampered Bureau of Labor Statistics’ ability to collate vital reports

“It’s not that BLS is cooking the books; it’s that BLS is being cooked.” www.ft.com/content/2505...

‘In other periods of market exuberance, notably the dotcom bubble in 1999, Buffett sat on the sidelines. That generated opprobrium from critics at the time, with Berkshire shares lagging the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite.’ www.ft.com/content/86ee...

Tokenised trading creates structural risks When code is law, accountability goes missing

What's in your wallet? Who knows!

on.ft.com/46C38Lw

This strategist says retail investors are completely baffling Wall Street. Nationwide strategist Mark Hackett says the battle to control Wall Street is so far veering in favor of retail investors.

“The retail investor has fueled this sense of inevitability about recoveries… Historical trends are no longer working, and what it does is make institutional investors very cautious about being short.” www.marketwatch.com/story/all-hi...

How Palantir Won Over Washington—and Pushed Its Stock Up 600% The onetime Silicon Valley upstart has emerged as a power player in President Trump’s second term—and adopted his persona.

‘As it has ascended, Palantir’s leadership has adopted a persona not unlike President Trump himself: taunting its critics, lambasting the media, and showing contempt for the departed employees who have sounded alarms about Palantir’s recent work.’ www.wsj.com/tech/palanti...

Neil Dutta's Gut Check: Three Economies Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it's us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developme...

‘The risk with any major capex boom associated with a tech innovation is a bust. There will be a point where adoption becomes saturated, spending outpaces demand for it, and the need for additional investment spending will dry up.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

McDonald’s Says Economic Stress Is Sparking Weak Breakfast Sales McDonald’s Corp. is trying to make its breakfast menu more attractive to entice budget-conscious diners who are skipping out on Egg McMuffins and hash browns.

‘The chain is seeing that breakfast is “absolutely the weakest daypart,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said. It’s the “most economically sensitive” meal time because it’s easy for a “stressed consumer to either skip breakfast or choose to eat breakfast at home.”’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Tesla Shareholders Sue Over Robotaxi, Autonomous Driving Software Claims A Tesla shareholder sued Tesla and CEO Elon Musk, alleging that the company committed fraud by overstating the capabilities and downplaying the dangers of its autonomous driving software and robotaxi ...

‘The proposed class action, filed late Monday in federal court in Texas, alleges that Tesla misled shareholders from 2023 to 2025 when executives made “false and misleading” statements while hyping Tesla’s driving software.’ www.theinformation.com/briefings/te...

OpenAI in Talks for Share Sale at $500 Billion Valuation OpenAI is in early talks about a potential sale of stock for current and former employees at a valuation of about $500 billion, people briefed on the investment discussions said, marking an enormous g...

‘OpenAI is in early talks about a potential sale of stock for current and former employees at a valuation of about $500 billion. The company is targeting a secondary stock sale in the billions of dollars.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“The S&P 493 – that’s the S&P 500 ex-Magnificent 7 – is expected to deliver just 2-3% net income growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4. That’s slower than inflation, meaning most of the market is barely growing in real terms. Measured against this, US equities are quite expensive!” www.dailychartbook.com/p/731

Macro conditions in the U.S. are not great.

Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.

PLTR has already gained in market cap in just two trading days this week the equivalent of > 10X TTM sales.

"Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are?" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

GMO: 'Animal spirits are roaring, and strong momentum has pushed both valuations and signs of speculation to risky levels.' www.gmo.com/americas/res...

...ht, @hmeisler.bsky.social

'US companies announced share repurchases totaling $166 billion last month, the highest dollar value on record for July, as buyback plans from the largest American financial and technology companies kicked in. The previous record for July was $88 billion in 2006.' www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Bubble warnings are flashing again for tech, media and telecom. TMT valuations have reached new highs, and concentration risk is now greater than at any point since the dot-com bubble peaked in 2000.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

‘America’s student loan problem has gone from bad to worse. The share of loans that are 30 or more days delinquent surpassed 13% last quarter. That’s a record high in data going back to the fourth quarter of 2001.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Non-OPEC Oil Supply Growth to Peak in Early 2026, BP Says Oil supply growth from non-OPEC producers will stall in early 2026, while demand remains robust, according to BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss.

“Non-OPEC supply we largely see going flat after February or March next year. Supply will be relatively flat for the next 12-18 months after that.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BMO: “.. a disappointing and ugly ISM Services report for July. Stagflationary impacts already appear to be rocking the services sector to a greater extent than previously anticipated.

“.. economic activity and job growth are sputtering under the weight of higher tariffs, increasing inflation ..”

‘Karp’s investors are not only betting that he can increase revenue like the clappers for five years but that they should value his company as if he already has.’ www.ft.com/content/2a5d...

The Fed’s dual mandate needs a rethink US central bank should orientate monetary policy towards maximising productivity

‘The Fed should maintain positive real (inflation-adjusted) yields that incentivise savings over consumption and favour investments that boost productivity and earn a real return on capital, rather than debt accumulation.’ www.ft.com/content/c529...