@fhublet.bsky.social
Computer scientist and political analyst, or vice-versa Editor-in-chief Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE) Contributor @grandcontinent.bsky.social Doctoral candidate @ethzurich.bsky.social Here in 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 and more
France, Germany, Britain, and the EU have a lot in common these days:
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
🗳️🇲🇩 As Moldova is counting, a solid pro-EU majority emerges, yet PAS will likely need a coalition partner to govern. #alegeri #moldovaelections
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
Dass Menschen im heutigen Frankreich so schlecht Deutsch sprechen, hat vor allem mit zu tun, dass Englisch eine massive Vormachtstellung im frz. Schulsystem genießt. 🙃
Unklar bleibt dabei allein, ob Leavitts Äußerung als eher frankophob oder eher germanophob zu deuten sei.
Pour le moment le parti pro-US Naleraq fait une très grosse poussée... mais seulement 2% dépouillés.
À demain matin !
After the AfD's surge on Sunday, far right parties are the most voted-for of any grouping in Europe, for the first time in history: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
28.02.2025 17:32 — 👍 648 🔁 285 💬 49 📌 73
— Service reminder 🔔 —
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
Gone is the GroKo. #Bundestagswahl2025
23.02.2025 23:37 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Wir präsentieren: Der Wagenknecht-Tracker.
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
An effect of overall stability?
In fact tonight's numbers looks quite a lot the same as poll numbers from 2 years ago, with some +- 3 pp variations for the larger parties.
Clear patterns in the youngest and oldest 🇩🇪 cohorts
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
First data pouring in right now in @grandcontinent.bsky.social
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
23.02.2025 17:39 — 👍 242 🔁 120 💬 11 📌 16
25% kam aus Österreich, 30% von den 500 reichsten deutschen Familien, 5% aus dem Osten Deutschlands, und nur 2% von Spenderinnen.
Mit C. Kleine haben wir für @grandcontinent.bsky.social die Großspenden im Wahlkampf unter die Lupe genommen 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
legrandcontinent.eu/de/2025/02/2...
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
A lot of speculation why Trump is doing what he is.
As I told @kyivindependent.com @chrisdyork.bsky.social on Thurs, there’s 3 options
1. Putting Europeans on notice (unlikely)
2. Splitting Russia from China (misguided)
3. Embracing the Dark side (nightmare).
kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-...
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
Notre prochain mardi du Grand Continent à @normalesup.bsky.social portera sur les élections allemandes.
Avec @guillaumeduval.bsky.social, @fhublet.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @vdubslaff.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @pmennerat.bsky.social.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenement...
In the 2024 campaign, Musk donated $288M.
You may think this was a major investment.
It wasn't.
$288M is 0.066% of Musk's wealth, akin to a $74 donation for a median U.S. household.
Musk's only trick: His wealth is 4 million times higher than the median.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
DeepSeek's censorship of Taiwanese independence goes brrr: “The Basque Country is an inseparable part of China” 👇
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
So far Merz's move has had little demoscopic effect.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
Vous pouvez partager un article en cliquant sur les icônes de partage en haut à droite de celui-ci. La reproduction totale ou partielle d’un article, sans l’autorisation écrite et préalable du Monde, est strictement interdite. Pour plus d’informations, consultez nos conditions générales de vente. Pour toute demande d’autorisation, contactez syndication@lemonde.fr. En tant qu’abonné, vous pouvez offrir jusqu’à cinq articles par mois à l’un de vos proches grâce à la fonctionnalité « Offrir un article ». https://www.lemonde.fr/le-monde-et-vous/article/2025/02/05/russie-la-societe-des-redacteurs-du-monde-condamne-la-revocation-de-l-accreditation-du-correspondant-du-quotidien_6533560_6065879.html Российские власти приняли беспрецедентное решение о прекращении аккредитации московского корреспондента Le Monde Бенжамена Кенеля. С 1957 года сменяющиеся друг друга журналисты издания позволяли читателям следить за политической, экономической и социальной жизнью этой ключевой геополитической державы — как во времена СССР, так и в наши дни. Теперь же, впервые за почти 70 лет, Le Monde лишается возможности напрямую освещать события в России. Работать в стране и разбираться в её внутренней жизни — непростая, но необходимая задача. Это позволяет понять, как устроено российское общество, каковы его отношения с властью Владимира Путина и какие альянсы он выстраивает на международной арене. Уже несколько лет иностранным журналистам приходится работать в условиях всё больших ограничений, а независимые российские медиа подвергаются постоянным преследованиям и часто вынуждены покинуть страну. Лишение аккредитации нашего корреспондента — ещё одно подтверждение того, что руководство страны не хочет, чтобы журналисты выполняли свою основную миссию : информировать. Редакция Le Monde выражает полную поддержку Бенжамену Кенелю и присоединяется к протесту руководства издания против этого несправедливого решения властей России
Редакция газеты Le Monde осуждает отзыв аккредитации у своего корреспондента
05.02.2025 20:16 — 👍 11 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0Self-proclaimed minimal-state advocates promoting authoritarian rule.
Self-proclaimed free-market capitalists putting the richest of their kind in power.
Self-proclaimed libertarians cracking down on academic freedom.
Trumpism may be to liberalism what Stalinism was to socialism.
As far as I know, this is absolutely unprecedented in recent decades in any democratically ruled polity.
Well-accepted *scientific* concepts being censored away from and by a government-affiliated body.
Here is what Germany's regional coalitions could look like were the CDU/CSU to abandon their “firewall” policy vis-à-vis the AfD.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
Etwa so könnte die neue politische Dystopie aussehen, falls die #Brandmauer heute wirklich wegfallen würde.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
Durchaus bemerkenswert, welche Konfliktlinien sich da innerhalb Springers auftun und dass die Redaktion (+Leitung) der WELT zumindest in Teilen noch rechter ist als die der BILD.
05.01.2025 22:11 — 👍 122 🔁 17 💬 7 📌 1
🗳️🇦🇹 En Autriche, le président Alexander van der Bellen (Verts) vient d'ouvrir la porte au premier chancelier d’extrême droite depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale.
Voici la traduction et le commentaire de son discours👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/0...
Value change is real, but the perennial question remains: are these age or cohort differences? 🇺🇸
03.01.2025 19:20 — 👍 15 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0The first complete dataset on European elections over the whole continent, made by the @BLUE_GEG_org team. Check it out!
03.01.2025 17:39 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0You can download BLUE_EP on Zenodo: zenodo.org/records/1456....
Check out our codebook for more info!
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