Lise Latulippe

Federal judge orders Trump administration to restore President’s House slavery exhibit (Audacy) PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to restore the President’s House slavery exhibit on Independence Mallto i...

"Federal judge orders Trump administration to restore President’s House slavery exhibit"
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2 killed in shooting at high school hockey game in Pawtucket, Rhode Island; suspect dead, police say The ATF said it would assist police responding to a shooting during a high school boys' hockey game in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.

2 killed in shooting at high school hockey game in pawtucket, rhode island; suspect dead, police say www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...

Billionaire Trump Donor Closing U.S. Plant and Moving Work to China (The New Republic) One of President Trump’s oldest donors is closing a manufacturing plant in Ohio and moving it to China, a slap in the face to the American workers he claimed...

Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson plans to offshore the East Lake, Ohio, plant of Conn Selmer, the largest U.S. manufacturer of brass and orchestra instruments.

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Billionaire Trump Donor Closing U.S. Plant and Moving Work to China (The New Republic) One of President Trump’s oldest donors is closing a manufacturing plant in Ohio and moving it to China, a slap in the face to the American workers he claimed...

"Billionaire Trump Donor Closing U.S. Plant and Moving Work to China"

One of Trump’s oldest donors is closing a manufacturing plant in Ohio and moving it to China, a slap in the face to the American workers he claimed to be fighting for.
l.smartnews.com/p-7aYLS10I/M...

Presidential hopeful rejects Trump's White House invite over race feud (Daily Mail) A Democratic governor who's eyeing a potential presidential run has boycotted Donald Trump's upcoming White Housedinner after the only black governor in the ...

"Presidential hopeful rejects Trump’s White House invite over race feud"
Democratic governor who's eyeing a potential presidential run has boycotted Donald Trump's upcoming White House dinner after the only black governor in the US was shunned from the event.

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Trump insider caught in videos exploiting presidential access (Daily Mail) Have a special MAGA birthday that could use a little star power? Need a conservative influencer for your HVAC business? Perhaps a Homeland Security adviser t...

As Bl and TSA agents worked without pay amid the longest government shutdown in US history, Lewandowski was moonlighting as a pitchman on Cameo for businesses willing to shell out more than $500 per video, according to information on Lewandowski's online account.

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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

There’s no telling for sure whether these indicators will turn out to be truly predictive until November. But all of them should be sounding alarm bells for Republicans.

Charlie Hunt, Associate Professor of Political Science, Boise State University
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

The generic ballot, a standard polling question that asks voters’ intent2vote for 1 party or the other in Nov without naming specific candidates, has the GOP about 6% points behind the Dem. Trump’s approval rating, meanwhile, continues to hover below 40%.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Generally, this is preferable2asking a hypothetical in opinion polls, which are getting more difficult than ever2do well.
In the end, s-elections are just 1 piece of the prediction puzzle. But the other puzzle pieces are also spelling out potential bad news4the GOP.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Although polls do their best to approximate voters’ political attitudes, elections reveal these attitudes through voters’ actual, observed behavior – exactly the type of behavior that analysts are trying to predict in November.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Using all the tools available
Still, special elections do have key advantages over traditional polling.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Special elections tend to have far lower turnout than regular midterm or presidential contests. It’s also difficult to tell whether overperformance is due to highly motivated partisans or persuasion of independents and voters from the other party.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

And special elections, while useful metrics, are far from perfect barometers of public opinion. They take place at different times, and could be just as reflective of hyperlocal factors, such as flawed candidates, as they are of nationalized partisan conditions.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

It’s also always worth bearing in mind that there’s no telling how the events of the next nine months might reshape public opinion.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Even if they end up creating a 2018-like election environment with an unpopular Trump, many Senate contests are taking place in solidly red states.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

What’s different about specials?
Democrats, however, may not want to pop the champagne corks just yet. Many roadblocks remain in their quest to take back control of Congress. For one thing, the U.S. Senate map remains a difficult one for Democrats.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

On average, they’re running ahead of Harris’s 2024 margins by a whopping 13% points. That’s better than they did in 2018, when they ultimately picked up 40 seats in the House and seven governorships across the country.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

At any rate, if previous midterm outcomes are any guide, the numbers being posted by Democrats in special elections so far in the 2026 cycle are impossible to ignore.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Like special elections, midterm contests tend to turn out fewer but more engaged voters than presidential years. Therefore, it may be that special elections are more predictive of midterm results than presidential cycles.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

The 2024 cycle is a clear exception2this pattern of reg-elections closely following sp-elec-results: Prior2the pres-election, Dem outperformed in special elections by an average of 4% points but ended up losing nationally by 3% points in November.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Conversely, in 2018 – like this yr, a midterm following a Trump election – Dem bested R by 8% points in November, after overperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins in special elections throughout the previous two years by 9% points on average.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

which translated into a 3%-point loss nationwide in U.S. House races in the November 2022 midterms and the loss of their majority in the chamber.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

In the 2022 cycle, for example, Democrats running in special elections underperformed President Joe Biden’s 2020 results in their districts by about 4% points on average,
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Are special elections predictive?
With this baseline in mind, it’s easy to compare the results of special elections in particular districts to the results of the last presidential election in that same district.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

In trying to measure how voters are reacting to Trump’s second term, it makes sense to measure their behavior against the last time Trump was on the ballot.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, recent midterm elections have typically served as a referendum on the party in power, particularly the president.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Second, using presidential results creates the same baseline for all races. By comparing special election results to the prior election environment, all the special election results get compared to the same standard.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

The nationalization of party politics means there are few members of Congress representing states or districts that voted for the other party for president. So the best comparison is to the only truly national election in the U.S.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

Most political analysts agree that the best available comparison point for special elections are the results for the most recent presidential election in that same district. There are a few reasons for this.
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Multiple warning signs suggest trouble ahead for Trump — and the GOP On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even out...

After all, a Democrat just barely squeaking by in a state legislative race may not look very impressive on its face – but if that race took place in the rural heart of a red state, it could raise hackles among Republicans.
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