The Lowy Institute

In defence of darkness Exploring a tradition built on fatalism rather than historical fact.

“Exploring a tradition built on fatalism rather than historical fact” Read Marcus Colla in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/defence-darkness

The Pukpuk Treaty is about keeping China at bay, not military strength The pact with PNG aims to preserve Australia’s regional standing by making Chinese military access harder.

“The use of realpolitik phrasing such as ‘sphere of influence’ plays badly in a region which is justifiably wary of any whiff of neocolonialism,” writes Sam Roggeveen in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/pukpuk-treaty-about-keeping-china-bay-not-military-strength

The return of landmines marks a darker era for Europe – and the world Countries withdrawing from the ban treaty shows how Russian hostility is forcing choices that undermine global norms.

“Mines that trigger on touch are incapable of distinguishing between an enemy combatant or a kid chasing a ball,” writes Grant Wyeth in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/return-landmines-marks-darker-era-europe-world

What the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize reveals about our vision of peace Whether Trump or a Baloch activist, views of contenders show symbolic recognition often outlasts achievement.

“The Nobel Peace Prize can sometimes age poorly when political hopes collapse into disillusion,” writes Shamsa Ishfaq in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-2025-nobel-peace-prize-reveals-about-our-vision-peace

Taiwan’s main threat isn’t military – it’s media speculation Every headline becomes a crisis, every policy shift becomes abandonment. Taiwan deserves reporting that resists speculation.

“Moderate the message as much as you like in your third paragraph, but in the mind of readers across the world, only the headline matters,” writes Julien Oeuillet in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/taiwan-s-main-threat-isn-t-military-it-s-media-speculation

The great omission: A clarifying statement on North Korea’s nukes A quiet but seismic shift in Beijing’s language reveals a new reality: China now treats a nuclear North Korea as a practical reality.

“Beijing effectively admits what its practice already reflects, that North Korea’s nuclear status is a fact to be managed, not a problem…” Read Seong-Hyon Lee in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-omission-clarifying-statement-north-korea-s-nukes

How Australia can navigate long-term Red Sea shipping disruptions Route volatility is squeezing grain exports and fertiliser imports, and there are no calm waters on the horizon.

“Treat route choice like a portfolio, not a coin toss,” writes Hamed Zakikhani in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/how-australia-can-navigate-long-term-red-sea-shipping-disruptions

Can Japan’s first female PM escape the revolving door? Sanae Takaichi must revive Japan’s economy, restore LDP credibility, and navigate great power tensions – all at once.

“Takaichi’s hawkish, nationalist convictions could put thawing regional ties under renewed strain,” writes Tan Ming Hui in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/can-japan-s-first-female-pm-escape-revolving-door

Prabowo’s policies won’t fix Indonesia’s problems Heavy spending and top-down control are unlikely to rescue Indonesia from corruption, inequality and investor doubt.

“Rather than tax Indonesia’s tycoons and regulate their businesses more effectively, Prabowo seems more intent on cajoling them to support…” Read Hilman Palaon in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/prabowo-s-policies-won-t-fix-indonesia-s-problems

When democracies override their own courts: Australia’s dangerous precedent Parliamentary overrides in migration law offer authoritarian regimes a playbook for eroding judicial independence.

“The international community must recognise that threats to democracy come not only from obvious authoritarians…” Read Juan Zahir Naranjo Cáceres in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/when-democracies-override-their-own-courts-australia-s-dangerous-precedent

America’s EV plan needs Southeast Asia more than it admits Unless the US wants to pay more and wait longer, it should secure trusted capacity from non-Chinese supply chains.

“If the goal is resilience, the next step is to secure trusted capacity where it already exists or is scaling fast,” writes Apoorba Banerjee in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/america-s-ev-plan-needs-southeast-asia-more-it-admits

Indonesia’s free meal ambition: When policy becomes a recipe for risk Grand promises about feeding children have fallen foul of rushed implementation and ignoring lessons from abroad.

“The program still has a chance to succeed, but only if Jakarta slows down, builds the rules before expanding, and places quality above coverage,” writes Ronny P Sasmita in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/indonesia-s-free-meal-ambition-when-policy-becomes-recipe-risk

Indonesia’s green industrial policy ahead of COP30 Jakarta is playing a balancing act between business wins and climate objectives. Can it work?

“Observers of Indonesia’s past COP campaigns note a recurring pattern: the projects presented often…” Read Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara and Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/indonesia-s-green-industrial-policy-ahead-cop30

Delays on the Pukpuk treaty with PNG were Australian missteps, not failures The Papua New Guinea agreement represents a landmark not just for its signatories but the region as a whole.

“When it is eventually signed, the treaty will be a landmark agreement for both countries, and therefore any step that brought…” Read Blake Johnson in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/delays-pukpuk-treaty-png-were-australian-missteps-not-failures

When Trump says Ukraine can win back all territory taken by Russia, he’s not wrong Relentless strikes on Russian infrastructure are raising the costs of war beyond what the Kremlin can sustain.

“The escalating hybrid war Russia is waging across Europe today is less a show of strength than a symptom of weakness,” writes David Kirichenko in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/when-trump-says-ukraine-can-win-back-all-territory-taken-russia-he-s-not-wrong

Australia’s AI choice: Standards setter or technology taker? If Australia adopts artificial intelligence built to foreign specifications, we tacitly accept an invisible leash.

“If the standards are written offshore, every Australian AI-enabled system comes with an invisible leash. That leash is strategic dependence…” Read Ian Gribble in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-ai-choice-standards-setter-or-technology-taker

When the Taliban switches off the internet, Afghanistan disappears Cutting Afghanistan off from the world shows how the Taliban prioritises control over the welfare of millions already suffering.

“A total internet blackout in Afghanistan does more than disrupt communication – it cruels the economy,” writes Humayoon Babur in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/when-taliban-switches-internet-afghanistan-disappears

Manila’s lonely island at the centre of Taiwan contingency planning At the Philippines’ northernmost point, troops guard waters that could determine Taiwan’s fate.

“The armed forces now view China’s threat to Taiwan and its increasingly assertive actions in the West Philippine Sea as interconnected problems,” writes Frances Mangosing in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/manila-s-lonely-island-centre-taiwan-contingency-planning

Australian conflict prevention – from statements to strategy? Australian tunnel vision on potential China–US conflict may blind us to pressing risks closer to home.

“The time has come for the Australian government to define an Australian Model for conflict prevention, encompassing and…” Read William Leben and Martina Zapf in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australian-conflict-prevention-statements-strategy

How Trump’s $14 billion TikTok tug-of-war affects Asia With Western nations cracking down on the wildly popular app, does Beijing have its sights set on the developing markets?

“The TikTok battle extends far beyond Washington and Beijing. The Asia-Pacific region is the beating heart of the platform’s user base,” writes Akhmad Hanan in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/how-trump-s-14-billion-tiktok-tug-war-affects-asia

Indonesia’s SupTech experiment offers lessons for emerging markets With consumer credit booming, AI-driven oversight could help safeguard the economy.

“Indonesia has one of Asia’s largest multifinance sectors, making it a valuable test case for emerging markets,” writes Hanif Santoso in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/indonesia-s-suptech-experiment-offers-lessons-emerging-markets

Pakistan’s Saudi pact shifts South Asia’s security calculus A defence agreement between Islamabad and Riyadh looms as a diplomatic headache for New Delhi.

“The pact will not alter the military balance, but it will certainly influence the strategic environment in which both South Asian…” Read Muhammad Faisal in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/pakistan-s-saudi-pact-shifts-south-asia-s-security-calculus

Time for an ASEAN agreement on lethal AI The use of autonomous weapons in the region’s flashpoints could narrow the window for human intervention to seconds.

“Misclassification is likeliest where uniforms, auxiliaries, and civilians mix, which is exactly the scene at borders and in many Southeast Asian potential flashpoints,” writes Ngô Di Lân in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/time-asean-agreement-lethal-ai

Philippines: Marcos in the middle While regularly seen as “pro-American”, the Marcos Jr administration has also embraced a more multipolar vision of the world that goes beyond the dictates of any superpower.

“Frontline regional states are fast developing a new network of ‘middle power cooperation’ in the Indo-Pacific,” writes Richard Javad Heydarian in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/philippines-marcos-middle

National champions – Vietnam’s solution to the middle-income trap The international economic environment could hardly be less propitious.

“Vietnam can still realistically aspire to capture more value from its existing exports and mirror aspects of the development paths…” Read Henry Storey in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/national-champions-vietnam-s-solution-middle-income-trap

Southeast Asia can play a role in a safer nuclear future Non-nuclear states could provide the much needed ballast to the risk of conventional confrontations and miscalculations.

“The nuclear dimension adds complexity to existing regional tensions and major power competition flashpoints,” writes Izzah Ibrahim in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/southeast-asia-can-play-role-safer-nuclear-future

Afghanistan must tread a narrow path to stability Denial and extremism have plagued the Taliban’s return. Will they let history repeat itself or can they reform?

“The Taliban insist they have severed ties with extremist groups, but the evidence tells otherwise,” writes Ishaal Zehra in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/afghanistan-must-tread-narrow-path-stability

The good oil? Helping palm plantations contribute to global biodiversity targets Indonesia and Malaysia control 80% of global palm oil supply – their conservation choices will determine if the industry can rehabilitate itself.

“The real issue is not whether production will grow but whether it will grow responsibly,” writes Mohd. Yunus in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/good-oil-helping-palm-plantations-contribute-global-biodiversity-targets

Why Moldova’s election results matter for Europe’s war with Russia Vladimir Putin has his eyes on a tiny landlocked country that could prove critical in his campaign against Ukraine.

“Vladimir Putin has his eyes on a tiny landlocked country that could prove critical in his campaign against Ukraine” Read Catherine Wilson in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-moldova-s-election-results-matter-europe-s-war-russia

The youth are revolting as Asia's gerontocracy is showing its age Across the region, leaders twice the median age of their populations face sustained resistance from a new generation.

“Young people have not just participated, but led both in the streets and online to challenge…” Read Erika Isabel Bulan Yague, Lukas Nagel and Helen Berents in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/youth-are-revolting-asia-s-gerontocracy-showing-its-age