Susannah Patton

The Australia-Indonesia pact won’t shift the regional balance But this diplomatic win for Australia does reflect warm neighbourly ties.

“The same personal factors that delivered this win for Australia also point to its limitations,” writes Susannah Patton in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-indonesia-pact-won-t-shift-regional-balance

Two FANTASTIC jobs going @lowyinstitute.bsky.social. Program Director, public opinion and foreign policy (for an expert on Australian international affairs) and our inaugural India Chair, for a senior expert on Indian foreign policy. All details: www.lowyinstitute.org/about/careers

Who is Thailand’s new Prime Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul? The installation of a “middleman” prime minister is a warning sign for Thailand’s political stability.

“Calling an election in Thailand is akin to throwing the cards in the air in the hope of a more favourable arrangement,” writes Susannah Patton in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/who-thailand-s-new-prime-minister-anutin-charnvirakul

Does Australia see China as a threat? Squaring the circle between public opinion and political rhetoric.

“What is required is a willingness by the Prime Minister to speak more directly about Australia’s strategic circumstances,” writes Susannah Patton in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/does-australia-see-china-threat

A border skirmish and leaked phone call sees the Thailand-Cambodia dispute surge back to life An international dispute that is all about domestic politics.

'Paetongtarn’s inexperience has been on full display this week' writes @susannahpatton.bsky.social www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Too much happening in the world, I guess. And also too confusing 🫠

A border skirmish and leaked phone call sees the Thailand-Cambodia dispute surge back to life An international dispute that is all about domestic politics.

My take on the renewed Thailand-Cambodia border dispute, drawing on lots of conversations with experts over the past two days at the Asia-Pacific Roundtable conference: www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Nice one

🇮🇩🇦🇺 Prabowo, Albanese to meet in Jakarta Like an amateur AFL team in their late-30s, Albo heads north feeling good

I've been thinking about starting an Indonesia-Australia relationship substack for years. Albo just popped up in Jakarta, so why not now? A quick look at the background to this trip. Please read/subscribe etc. if you like flatkopi.substack.com/p/prabowo-al...

Thank you!

The cost of Albanese skipping Prabowo’s inauguration Bilateral ties won’t be adversely affected, but errors like this change the way Australia is seen in the region.

This follows PM Albanese's decision to skip the presidential inauguration last year, which I argued then reflected possible complacency about the relationship: www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Opposition leader Peter Dutton says first overseas visit would be to the United States, breaking longstanding tradition that Australian PMs make first bilateral visit to Indonesia. amp.abc.net.au/article/1050...

Silencing the Voice of America Data from the Asia Power Index shows just how successful the Voice of America has been.

“Compared with other information flows in the region which we measure – news agencies, newspapers and TV – radio skews more favourably to the United States than any other medium,” writes Susannah Patton in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/silencing-voice-america

Silencing the Voice of America Data from the Asia Power Index shows just how successful the Voice of America has been.

New Interpreter post from me: data from the Asia Power Index shows just how successful the Voice of America has been in Asia. The results of the next Asia Power Index may look very different … www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

US hits Thai officials with visa sanctions over deportation of Uyghurs to China The move appeared intended to discourage Thailand and other countries from such deportations.

I have conflicting thoughts on sanctioning Thai officials. While it aligns with US concerns for human rights (good), we are punishing Bangkok for not standing up to Beijing even as we alienate the Thais & fail to provide them with any alternative #Thailand www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/us-thai...

In a new episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, defence analyst Marcus Hellyer talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about the unprecedented appearance of Chinese warships off Australia’s east coast.
youtube.com/watch?v=Ujvw...

Japan reels from — and steels for — U.S. policy shifts “What Japan has learned from the Ukraine war is that the era where we could rely entirely on the U.S. is over.”

Commentary: Japan is increasingly concerned that the U.S. may no longer be a reliable ally, especially as its shifting policies raise fears of a weakened security partnership amid rising threats from China and Russia.

Time to retire the term “Plan B” Australia needs to respond with urgency to the second Trump administration, but framing the conversation around the idea of a Plan B is self-defeating.

Australia needs to respond with urgency to the second Trump administration, but framing the conversation around a narrowly cast Plan B would be self-defeating. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Climate pledge delays: The world can’t afford more hot air Last-minute extension stretches deadline for national climate plans to later this year, raising hopes for stronger pledges

Climate pledge delays: The world can’t afford more hot air - by @lowyinstitute.bsky.social IPDC @georgiahammersley.bsky.social Global temps have exceeded 1.5°C, yet major emitters are delaying climate commitments. With the US absent, global ambition is at risk. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

In some ways aid cuts by Europeans are understandable but Australia already spends so little that any further restrictions here would have a disastrous impact. Sadly I don’t see any political support for expanding the aid budget in response to others’ cuts.

Pretty devastating blow for reputation of Thailand’s current government here. And a data point, ir one was needed, about China’s influence at the expense of international law www.voanews.com/amp/outcry-b...

NEW RESEARCH: This @lowyinstitute.bsky.social interactive map reveals how global trade with the world's two largest economies, the United States and China, has changed since 2001.
interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/chi...

There’s also the question of Greater Sunrise and whether this plays into ASEAN’s assessment of Dili’s long term viability/stability. If so, this would militate in favour of deferring accession again as unclear whether any agreement between Canberra and Dili is forthcoming. 6/6

Ultimately the decision will only be made by leaders and what they do is unpredictable. Singapore’s position may have softened and some observers speculate that Lee Hsien Loong’s departure may weaken Singapore’s longstanding opposition. 5/6

But reading between the lines of the recent ASEAN Ministerial Meeting I’m not so sure what will happen this year. Ministers announced the establishment of a Timor-Leste unit in ASEC. asean.org/press-statem... 4/6

There’s also some support for this from other ASEAN countries, the ASEAN secretariat bureaucracy and some of ASEAN’s external partners. The thinking goes: T-L will never truly be “ready” so best to admit them now 3/6

Also, Malaysia wants them to join, and Anwar probably sees this as a deliverable from his chairmanship. www.bernama.com/en/news.php?... 2/6

Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN expected to take place in May 2025 - TATOLI Agência Noticiosa de Timor-Leste DILI, 27 january 2025 (TATOLI) – Timor-Leste’s accession to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to take place in May 2025. “Timor-Leste’s full membership of ASEAN is ‘a prio...

Is Timor-Leste joining ASEAN this year? It really wants to. en.tatoli.tl/2025/01/27/t... 1/6 🧵

Giving a talk today at the beautiful Vann Molyvann designed library building at the Royal University of Phnom Penh.

Looking forward to visiting Phnom Penh and Hanoi next week for the first time in a while! Please get in touch if you’d like to meet up in either city! ✈️ 🇰🇭 ✈️ 🇻🇳