Mick Ryan

Deep Strikes are Hurting Putin & Russia: The Big Five 5 October edition My regular update on global conflict. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads.

My regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict is now available. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/deep-strik...

Deep Strikes are Hurting Putin & Russia: The Big Five 5 October edition My regular update on global conflict. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads.

5/ You can read the full update (always free) here at this link: mickryan.substack.com/p/deep-strik...

4/ This week's Big Five features articles & reports from @SSInow @KyivPost @CSIS @maxbergmann @MSnegovaya @ForeignAffairs and other content from @CovertShores @EuromaidanPress @Militarylandnet and others.

3/ In the Pacific, China continued its operations around Taiwan, including daily aerial incursions into Taiwan ADIZ, and the tempo of allied military exercises continued to remain high.

2/ Ukraine. The U.S. government might be changing its policy about intelligence sharing with #Ukraine for long-range strikes deep inside Russia. More drones were spotted over military bases & airports in European nations. Russia & Ukraine continued their respective deep strike operations.

I have just posted my regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. 1/5 🇺🇦🧵

“The analysis challenges long-held assumptions about US Army superiority and sets a foundation for future research.” More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific
ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Re...

While creativity and innovation are always to be encouraged in military institutions, this appears to show Russia is now engaged in a reverse Revolution in Military Affairs! ⁦‪@KyivPost‬⁩
www.kyivpost.com/post/61219

A Pacific Conceptzia: Why Surprise in the Pacific is Probably Inevitable Learning from strategic failure and political decision-making in Europe and the Middle East in the past four years to understand the potential for strategic surprise in the Pacific.

3/ In my new article, I explore "conceptzia", how this and other factors led to poor European decision-making in the lead up to Russia's 2022 full scale invasion of #Ukraine, and why this means that surprise in the Pacific is probably inevitable. mickryan.substack.com/p/a-pacific-...

2/ The Hebrew term "conceptzia" is used by the authors of the book "While Israel Slept" to describe how evidence challenging strategic conceptions of Israel's security were ignored before 7/10/2023. It is also a concept for analysing how China might surprise Western nations in the Pacific.

This predisposition of many politicians and other members of ‘the elite’ to not challenge existing dogma about security affairs is hardly a new idea. It has occurred throughout history. But it can have catastrophic outcomes when it happens. 1/3 🧵

YouTube video by Times Radio Russian oil shortages reach Moscow as Kremlin halts oil exports due to Ukrainian Strikes

My conversation on Times Radio about the latest developments in the war in #Ukraine, why Putin cannot win this war, is now available.

youtube.com/watch?v=tCUo...

Got a bit more reading done. Crashed by @adamtooze.bsky.social excellent, published in 2018 still feels relevant and shows how long the shadow of the 2008 crash looms. The War for Ukraine by @warinthefuture.bsky.social another excellent read to understand strategies and adaptations on both sides.

Tomahawks, NATO's "War on Russia" and Russian Gas Shortages - 28 September update My regular update on global conflict. This week: Russia's war against NATO, Tomahawks for Ukraine(?), developments in the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war and national security reads.

5/ You can read the full update, which is a little longer than usual, at the link below - free as always!
mickryan.substack.com/p/tomahawks-...

4/ This week's Big Five recommended war and national security reads include articles or reports from @Ian_M_Easton @TimSweijs @hcssnl @WarOnTheRocks @WarInstitute @SMPrais @mchorowitz @Lauren_A_Kahn and @ForeignAffairs

3/ In the Pacific, China continued its operations around Taiwan, including daily aerial incursions into Taiwan ADIZ, deployed two massive uncrewed submarines, and released a video of aircraft trials with its latest aircraft carrier.

2/ President Trump hinted that he might be changing his mind about supporting Ukraine, endorsed shooting down Russian aircraft in NATO air space, & Ukraine requested Tomahawk missiles. Russia conducted more probes of NATO’s air defences. Russia & Ukraine continued their long-range strike operations.

My regular update on global conflict is now available. It has been another huge week in international affairs, the war in #Ukraine and strategic competition in the Pacific. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceAust)

It was a privilege to speak on the transformation drivers of AI, autonomy and adaptation for military institutions at today’s @scsp_ai #AI exchange in Austin, Texas.

One Hell of a Fight - A Change In Trump’s Narrative on Ukraine Trump’s recent post about the war in Ukraine was a major shift in his strategic narrative about the war. What did he actually say and what might it mean for the trajectory of the war?

Trump’s recent post about #Ukraine was a major shift in his strategic narrative about the war. There are some good words, but words without action are pointless. My assessment, exploring potential impacts on the trajectory of the war, is available now. mickryan.substack.com/p/one-hell-o...

Ep 233: Mick Ryan on the Ukraine War’s Urgent Lessons Podcast Episode · School of War · 09/23/2025 · 42m

I was delighted to be able to join ⁦‪Aaron Maclean‬⁩ again on the awesome ⁦‪School of War podcast‬⁩ to discuss #Ukraine, and a framework for translating Ukraine lessons for application in the Pacific theatre.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

Why Russia’s Shahed Drones Are Now Deadlier and Harder Than Ever to Stop With soaring civilian casualties in Ukraine, the challenge of countering advanced Shahed drones heightens, necessitating improved defensive solutions.

A good piece on the drone & missile defence #adaptation battle in the skies over #Ukraine.
united24media.com/war-in-ukrai...

“Ukraine’s relentless drone bombardment of Russia’s oil and gas industry has cut deeply into production of retail fuels, triggering supply chain shortages and even empty fuel stations, and angering motorists across the country.” The impact of Ukraine’s strategic strikes.
www.kyivpost.com/post/60481

3/ I recently had the opportunity to contribute to the Special Competitive Studies Project’s series of papers designed to inform the next U.S. National Defense #Strategy. This short paper was the result. www.scsp.ai/wp-content/u...

2/ Most importantly, sustained and visible #leadership from political and military leaders to build and sustain adaptation cultures will be crucial. #Adaptation in technology, organisations and ideas is moving at a speed that challenges legacy approaches and thinking on the conduct of conflict.

To overcome the challenge of the current Adaptation War will take deeper learning collaboration within the Department of Defense, and between the military, intelligence and other national security agencies of other allies and partner nations. 1/3 🧵

A 3.5% of GDP defence budget: Why, how, and what NATO's new benchmark is a good one for Australia to adopt. But what should the additional money be spent on?

For some time now, a debate has been underway in Australia about the appropriate level of defence spending. In this article for the @LowyInstitute, I examine what a 3.5% of GDP defence budget might look like, & what the priorities might be.
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Putin’s Polish probe demands decisive response to restore NATO deterrence Putin’s recent drone escalation in the skies over Poland is an unmistakable signal that NATO’s credibility is under threat. Western leaders must now respond decisively to deter further Russian aggress...

“Putin’s escalation in the skies over Poland is an unmistakable signal that NATO’s credibility is under threat…a new approach to engagement with the Kremlin that projects strength and resolve is required.” www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

Ghost Fleet, Ten Years Later: An Interview with P.W. Singer and August Cole This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with P.W. Singer and August Cole, who in 2015 published Ghost Fleet, a futuristic thriller depicting the next

Ghost Fleet, Ten Years Later: An Interview with P.W. Singer and August Cole

warontherocks.com/2025/09/ghos...

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“It is often said that the most powerful form of deception is self-deception. We should not deceive ourselves into thinking that what happened to Russia and Iran couldn’t happen to us.” Despite our tech, we are still susceptible to deception & surprise.
wapo.st/41Si84S