Mick Ryan

Trump's Ultimatum Deadline Draws Near My regular update on global conflict & confrontation. This week: Trump's peace ultimatum to Putin, drone learning & adaptation, the ground & aerial wars continue, and my recommended Big Five reads.

My weekly update on conflict and competition, focussed this week on Trump's deadline to Putin drawing near, is now available. As always, it also includes my top five war & #natsec reads for the week.
mickryan.substack.com/p/trumps-ult...

If you, inexplicably, missed the most recent episode of my 🎙️ #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, here it is: #Russia and #China versus the West: Is a war on two fronts a realistic scenario? @warinthefuture.bsky.social explains.
▶️ podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Taiwan #Ukraine

“The Drone”, written by @shmigel, is out in paperback today. This is a highly recommended set of short, vivid stories about #Ukraine and the experiences of the Ukrainian people. Congratulations Pete! www.amazon.com.au/Drone-PETE-S...

21st Century War and Strategy: New "Balances" Required 21st century wars will have many differences from those of the 20th century. The coming 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy offers the chance for different balances of capability.

21st century wars will have many differences from those of the 20th century. The coming 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy offers the chance for different thinking and different balances of capability in force structure and posture across all domains.
mickryan.substack.com/p/21st-centu...

The Big Five - 27 July edition My regular update on global conflict & confrontation. This week: the envelopment of Pokrovsk, Russia’s war on Ukraine’s cities and its protracted saturation strategy, and Exercise Talisman Sabre.

My regular update on global conflict & confrontation is now available. This week: the envelopment of Pokrovsk, Russia’s war on Ukraine’s cities and its protracted saturation strategy, and Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-big-fi...

“Transforming northern Australia into an Indo-Pacific stronghold will require Australia to invest in creating an expanded and resilient defense infrastructure suited to the demands of 21st-century warfare.” A new report from CSBA
csbaonline.org/research/pub...

North Korea’s Deadly Drone Bonanza Is Coming to a Peninsula Near You - War on the Rocks In December 2022, North Korea dispatched five drones across the demilitarized zone into South Korean territory. One reached as far south as the capital

“Thanks to material, technological, and training support from Russia (and indirectly from Iran), as well as modern battlefield experience…North Korea’s offensive and defensive drone warfare hardware and tactics have become substantially more lethal.”
warontherocks.com/2025/07/nort...

❗️❗️Starlinks have stopped working for Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters across the entire front, – Ukrainian soldiers said.

Clarifying the info.

Ukraine’s top commander asks Trump to help take the war to Russia With Trump now open to supplying U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky calls for longer-range missiles and the permission to use them against Russia.

“Ukraine urgently needs the United States and Europe to transfer more air defense systems and missiles to Kyiv…and without a Biden-era ban on deep strikes against Russian military targets.”
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Putin and Strategic Decision-Making My latest article published by the Lowy Institute explores Putin, strategy and the flaws in Putin's long-term decision-making.

Even if Putin is bad at long-term strategy, do western leaders have the will and the audacity to actually make him pay a price for his aggressive opportunism? At this point of his brutal campaign against the Ukrainian people, the answer is unclear.
mickryan.substack.com/p/putin-and-...

Countering Russian Cruise Missiles and Long-Range Drones Russian long-range drone and cruise missile developments, production increases, and Western interceptor capabilities.

"Russian cruise missiles, along with ballistic missiles, continue to pose a persistent and serious challenge to Europe’s security environment...Urgent action is needed to close the current gap in Europe’s missile defense architecture." missilematters.substack.com/p/countering...

The Big Five - 20 July edition My regular update on global conflicting & confrontation. This week: Ukraine's new government, Russia's 'big push' on the ground and in the air, and major military exercises in Taiwan and Australia.

My weekly update on conflict and confrontation in #Ukraine and the Pacific is now available. This week: Ukraine's new government, Russia's 'big push' on the ground and in the air, and major military exercises in Taiwan and Australia.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-big-fi...

NEW: Russian officials continue to publicly reiterate that Russia is uninterested in a near-term solution to ending the war in Ukraine that does not acquiesce to Moscow’s demands.

Read more from the July 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar072025 (🧵1/5)

The Big Five - 20 July edition My regular update on global conflicting & confrontation. This week: Ukraine's new government, Russia's 'big push' on the ground and in the air, and major military exercises in Taiwan and Australia.

5/ The full weekly update - free as always - is available to read at this link: mickryan.substack.com/p/the-big-fi...

4/ As always, I conclude with my Big Five security and military affairs recommended readings. This week, readings are from @ForeignAffairs, @smallwars, @ModJapan_en, @TheAtlantic and @CSIS

3/ In the Pacific, two big exercises have been occurring during the week. Taiwan has undertaken its largest annual exercise in the Han Kuang series, and Australia is hosting the massive, multilateral Talisman Sabre 2025.

2/ In Ukraine, a new government was appointed this week. Russia is continuing its big push in its land and air campaigns against Ukraine. But Putin is also under budgetary pressure, pressure from his increasing reliance on NK and China, and pressure from Trump.

My weekly update on conflict and confrontation in #Ukraine and the Pacific is now available. This week: Ukraine's new government, Russia's 'big push' on the ground and in the air, and major military exercises in Taiwan and Australia. 1/5 (Image: @GeneralStaffUA)

The Shattering Peace by John Scalzi Hugo Award winner Scalzi makes a surprise return to his Old Man’s War series a decade after the publication of The End of All Th...

Can’t wait to read this new @scalzi.com novel, a continuation of the Old Man’s War universe. www.publishersweekly.com/9780765389190

From Peace to War: Preparing to Adapt Effective adaptation from peace to war can have a major influence on the trajectory of a conflict. Wars can be won or lost depending on the quality of decision-making in this rapid adaptation phase.

The strategic effectiveness of adaptation from peace to war can have a major influence on the trajectory of a conflict. Wars may well be won or lost depending on the quality of decision-making in this rapid adaptation phase. Read the full article here:
mickryan.substack.com/p/from-peace...

A Shift in Tone on Ukraine? Trump’s 50 Day Ultimatum Will Trump really stand up to Putin, and how might his comments impact on the trajectory of the war, and the support from Russia’s key enablers of China and North Korea?

Ultimately, the success of more U.S. economic sanctions against Russia will determined by the answer to this question: "Is U.S. will to use all economic means necessary to end the war greater than China's will to use economic means to prolong the war?" mickryan.substack.com/p/a-shift-in...

Great image of RAAF F35

A Shift in Tone on Ukraine? Trump’s 50 Day Ultimatum Will Trump really stand up to Putin, and how might his comments impact on the trajectory of the war, and the support from Russia’s key enablers of China and North Korea?

New weapons to defend Ukraine, and a 50 day ultimatum. Are we seeing a shift in the US admin towards Russia and Ukraine, or just more talk? Some thoughts on Trump’s comments, & the potential impact of potential secondary sanctions on China & North Korea. mickryan.substack.com/p/a-shift-in...

Shield of the Republic History Podcast · Updated Weekly · Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. We probe beyond the hive mind of Washi...

Another great episode of Shield of the Republic with ⁦‪@EliotACohen‬⁩ and Eric Edelman, with a focus this week on the dysfunctional approach to #Ukraine policy in Washington DC.
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/s...

2/ Consequently Ukrainians die, and we will only have to face an emboldened Putin and Xi down the track at much, much greater cost. Shame on us.

This is happening because we - Australia, America, Europe and others, politicians and citizens - do not want to do what needs to be done to stop it. We are unwilling risk our lives or too much treasure to help #Ukraine resist Putin now. 1/2

Russia sets a new record for the number of drones used single night of attacks, and a new low for its appalling brutality against the people of #Ukraine.

Surprise is Inevitable - Failure May Follow When it comes to the government’s leadership in defence issues, Australia is the Unlucky Country. Strategic surprise and failure will probably be the result.

When it comes to the government’s leadership in defence issues, Australia is the Unlucky Country. Strategic surprise and failure will probably be the result. My latest analysis: mickryan.substack.com/p/surprise-i...

Why the Pentagon’s ‘pause’ on weapons to Ukraine backfired The efforts by the “restrainers” in the administration to pause arms to Ukraine failed. But they are still in the game.

“In short, the efforts by the “restrainers” in the administration to pause arms to Ukraine failed. But they are still in the game.”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

Ukrainian Troops Struggle to Hold the Line on the Eastern Front

A detailed account of the frontline battles in eastern Ukraine at present, which features interviews with soldiers about Russian drones, & an interview with the indomitable @bekamaciorowski. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/07/w...