Charles Knox-Vydmanov

Doesn't this also mean that defence and public servant pensions are included?

There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.

Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts

Spending is controlled, not spiralling

Worklessness is near record lows

My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...

On March 20, Chile's president promulgated a law introducing significant changes to the country's old-age pension system, including creating new social insurance benefits, increasing employer contributions, raising the guaranteed pension, encouraging more competition among individual account providers, and changing individual account investment options. The law, which received congressional approval on January 29 after 2 years of negotiations, represents the most substantial overhaul of Chile's pension system since the country switched from a social insurance pension model to a mandatory individual account model in 1981. By shifting to a mixed contributory pension model—with both social insurance and individual account components—and making other key changes, the government seeks to improve pension adequacy for current and future retirees, particularly for women and low-income individuals. The government estimates that the reforms will increase benefits for 2.8 million retirees by 14 percent to 35 percent over the next few years.

Chile just passed the biggest pension overhaul since ditching social insurance for individual accounts in 1981. A major shift in a system once seen as the poster child for privatization.

www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/...

This has, understandably, been overshadowed by far bigger developments

But this is interesting because, barring pensions, contributory social insurance has only ever been weakened in my years of watching these things. I’m not sure it’s ever been strengthened since the late 60s

Quite. I just wonder what happens when things people like actually stop working.

Very interesting about the SSA data!

Just to clarify, I'm not underplaying the huge damage that he/they can do, just that no one exists purely outside these dynamics of public opinion.

In a way, the Friedman example is instructive on this. Despite his huge intellectual influence through the 80s and 90s, the global outcome was not to discard social insurance systems.

In the end, whatever Elon says will have to rub up against the political economy of this.

Fostering inclusion: Advancing social health protection for persons with disabilities in Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Viet Nam This report explores the extent to which persons with disabilities in Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Viet Nam are able to access social health protection.

What a fantastic piece of work by Marielle Phe Goursat and @knoxvydmanov.bsky.social !

As countries strive to make #socialprotection more #inclusive, strong evidence is essential to support policy options that protect the rights of persons with disabilities.

www.ilo.org/publications...

I'd add, people of younger ages also often provide financial support to their older parents (or would in the absence of adequate pension systems). So they have a direct stake in questions of pension adequacy.

This is also a mistake on much pension policy thinking globally: "pensions are popular as older people vote". A lot of younger people worry about older parents/grandparents, and about their own old age.

I really like this! My immediate reaction was that *even* for regular migrants, factors such as informal employment and social assistance limited to citizens means few may have access to social protection. But I guess that is captured under the "several barriers"!

Florian and I had a bit of a debate about this!

The article is interesting, although I do think there is a danger sometimes of conflating questions of AI (e.g. fraud detection), eligibility criteria and benefit adequacy.

bsky.app/profile/knox...

New Lancet article on universal #cashtransfers for children:

"universal child cash benefits should be at the forefront of the broader economic policy portfolio as an investment in a nation's health, sustainability, and global competitiveness".

Shaefer et al
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Wonderful nuggets from the archives of the UK's social security system 👇

Making social protection work for gender equality: What does it look like? How do we get there? This paper outlines the perspective and approach of the ILO’s Universal Social Protection Department to enhancing the gender-responsiveness of social protection policies, anchored in international soc...

Happy Sunday! Sharing our paper on enhancing the gender-responsiveness of social protection policies, with a strong emphasis a life-cycle approach to system-building. www.ilo.org/publications...

New paper available in open access: “How to Design a Program for the Poor that is Not a Poor Program: Explaining the Political Sustainability of the Guaranteed Income Supplement” #poverty #pensions #GIS #Canada #cdnpolitics @cpsa_acsp @OHLJ @MISCCAN digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/ohlj/vol61/i...

Agree!

Just on the question of the AI being perceived as more "scientific", in this case the human reviewers don't know whether the review is from the AI, or randomly selected for review.

On a related note, the recent (supposed) increases in economic inactivity due to ill health, and rising claims for health-related benefits, has been used to justify claims that we have a "spiralling" benefits bill.

But when we look at welfare spending forecasts *in the round*, this just isn't true

Borrowing this chart from @jburnmurdoch.bsky.social to add a couple of points. Does the benefit system affect how people report *reasons* for economic inactivity in surveys? It's likely because there is evidence from cross national data that social & economic context influences responses. 1/n

2. Fraud detection: An important/necessary function of implementing agencies. Is use of AI as a filter inherently a problem where review/decision is by human? I'm not sure. I guess as the article (and you) say it comes down to the how, and to the process being transparent.

Agree! My basic sense is we need to distinguish between different types of use. E.g.

1. Algorithmic/black box decision-making in eligibility determination: problematic by its nature (e.g. proxy means testing) and can only get worse with AI. The key issue for me is inherent lack of transparency.

I can see that, and the point on transparency/scrutiny I think is really key as you say. Which is the case of the Netherlands that you have in mind?

Figure 4.1. Large variation in disability recipient rates across OECD countries and over time from the following report https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/disability-work-and-inclusion_1eaa5e9c-en

Fascinating! These are great resources and charts. Thank you so much!

In case it's not already on your radar, this is another nice resource for OECD level comparison: www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/d...

Seems to roughly match the UK and Sweden data (reassuringly)

Bluntly defining eligibility to disability benefits based on assessed incapacity to work is problematic from a disability inclusion perspective.

However, the experience of the UK also suggests it may - perversely - push up the costs of such systems.

Chart 1.2: Caseload prevalence of incapacity benefits (in the UK) from the following link: https://obr.uk/wtr/welfare-trends-report-october-2024/

OK... accessed the (great) article and can see form underlying data that this doesn't include PiP. So I have the same question as you, Sam!

By the way, lovely chart from the ONS data on the changing composition of incapacity benefit caseload.

Interesting! Is this just incapacity benefit/Employment and Support Allowance, or does it also include Personal Independence Payment?

But I do feel that there's a danger we simply conclude AI = digital dystopia, rather than carefully assessing how it's being implemented.

I think we need to be careful here. It's not obvious to me that the "disparities" described in the article and accompanying report result in discrimination.

Indeed, the report reads like one of an organisation taking these issues seriously (or perhaps I am naïve).

Very cool

Great Britain? THE SUNDAY TIMES BESTSELLER *Updated with a new Preface* An essential blueprint for a better future, from the leading economist and Labour rising star ‘No one has done more to re-inject sanity into ...

Very interesting! The argument has some parallel's with @torstenbell.bsky.social 's recent book on the UK in embracing the service economy, rather than "fetishising manufacturing" as you put it.

www.penguin.co.uk/books/461720...