Daniel Wincott

Tickets still available for Reform Caerphilly victory event Emily Price  Tickets for Reform’s UK’s Welsh victory event are still available to buy online with Caerphilly candidate Llŷr Powell booked as a guest speaker along with Lee Anderson who was active thro...

Tickets for Reform's UK's Welsh victory event are still available to buy online with Caerphilly by-election candidate Llŷr Powell booked as a guest speaker along with Lee Anderson who was active throughout the party's failed campaign ✍️ Emily Price

Remarkable victory for Plaid Cymru. Expect lots of attention (rightly) on Labour’s collapse to 11% of the vote. How much attention will the Conservatives get for their 2%?

*Conservatives 🫣

Labour braces for defeat in Caerphilly by-election Governing party faces potential loss of Senedd control amid Reform and Plaid Cymru surge in Welsh heartlands

Coverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution

Affective polarization and habits of political participation Affective polarization, or relative dislike of opposing partisans, is associated with several negative outcomes for democracy. However, a number of st…

@electoralstudies.bsky.social If you’re interested in academic studies of political polarisation we have loads of great papers at Electoral Studies. Check out this one by Joseph Phillips www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Rights, Pains and Illusions: The Experiences of Welsh‐Speakers at Wales’ ‘Flagship’ Prison This article challenges claims of ‘inherent’ bilingualism in Wales’ largest prison, HMP Berwyn. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and extensive documentary research, we find that Welsh-speaking p...

HMP Berwyn, the UK's largest prison, was once presented as an advance for the Welsh language.

@robdjones.bsky.social and I argue that it’s been a categorical failure by that measure, posing troubling questions for Welsh language rights more widely: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Hybrid | CLP - Bureaucracy and Distrust: The Civil Service in the Constitution This lecture will be delivered by Dr Ben Yong, as part of the Current Legal Problems Lecture Series 2025-26

I‘m giving a public talk at UCL on Thurs 16 Oct. The title is “Bureaucracy and distrust: the civil service in the constitution” looking at the civil service’s constitutional foundations, and how it might respond to a populist govt. @sirJJkc.bsky.social will chair!
www.ucl.ac.uk/laws/events/...

Which reminds me of Nightingale's first law of science policy "Fund more history"

📢ICON GBIE, TRICON, QUB Webinar:

Familiarity, Culture & Expertise: The Future of Referendums in Ireland & the UK

Oct 17th 10:00-13:00 Online

To register follow the link below:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/0d55a0...

1/3 👇

Among other posts in an excellent thread, this is one that resonates here in Wales, with our national election on the horizon next May.

Labour in Wales has been talking about voters going to Reform for a long time, whereas pollsters have been highlighting that any Labour-Ref switchers are long gone

Persevered

Or were once left leaning. It seems to me that some (but only some) UK university leaders come to believe what they used to critique. They almost to treat their own earlier academic work as a mirror-image playbook.

What would a critic of Oxford PPE write as parody of a rushed tutorial essay?

Unscramble these eggs

Great. Let’s keep power as centralised as possible. That’ll work well if Farage become PM.

The UK & EU becoming capable of full self defence + role wrt Ukraine encompasses timing questions. Equally, when, in the US domestic politics spiral, does UK government work to sustain the ‘special relationship’ fail a basic moral sniff test, if it hasn’t already? What should the UKG do (then)?

A ‘sovereign’ Parliament with 2 elected chambers looks different. Before GE 2024 Lords reform became a 2nd term issue for Labour.
I wasn’t wholly convinced by the Brown commission from a devo perspective. Now maybe a missed opportunity for several reasons? labour.org.uk/wp-content/u...

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy).

That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.

This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

No wonder Farage quit worrying and learned to love FPTP

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

To put the 14% in perspective it would not just be Labour's worst performance in Wales since it supplanted the Liberals in 1922, but its lowest vote share at any national election in Wales since 1906 (when it only contested a handful of seats due to the Gladstone-MacDonald pact)

#senedd #devolution

Oof.
Welsh Labour hopes for benefits flowing from partnership with a Labour government have, it seems, been dashed.
Is anyone in the UK party thinking about the medium term consequences of Labour losing Wales?

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? The who, what, when, how and huh of why Labour has lost so much support in such a short period of time

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?

Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?

TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

How generous is British welfare? - UK in a changing Europe Professor Dan Wincott compares the generosity of welfare entitlements in the UK with other high-income countries.

The UK also stands out for having cut Welfare Benefit Generosity. Turning WBG to a single number begs lots of issues (equally, tho GDP), but Scruggs+ Ramalho Tafoya have a decent index I used a few years ago. I think the issues it gets to are still often misunderstood. ukandeu.ac.uk/how-generous...

Shocked by Epstein’s birthday book? That culture was everywhere before feminism | Rebecca Solnit Feminism exposed the ubiquity of child abuse, rape, sexual harassment and domestic violence – and helped fight that culture

‘I was there. I kept the receipts. I remember how normalized the sexual exploitation of teenage girls and even tweens by adult men was, how it showed up in movies, in the tales of rock stars and “baby groupies”’

Powerful piece from @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Its correct to call Robinson’s rally larger than any far right rally in history.

3/4 of people on it would say it was not far right, and would deny racism

About 1/4 on it may be happy to own racism

The ostensibly moderate/peaceful frame is one reason it can go wider than Mosley or Britain First

I’ve looked into this now.

I can’t find an example of a far right march or rally attracting much more than 10,000.

A far right march on this scale is completely new for the UK.

A moving tribute.

Siaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur:

Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP:

Nigel Farage vows to change politics for ever after first election win Winning five MPs is the first step in “mass movement across the country”, Mr Farage says.

I’m old enough to remember when Farage railed against the inequity of FPTP
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...