Shannon O'Neil

YouTube video by Council on Foreign Relations Shannon O'Neil on CNN with Richard Quest

I joined Richard Quest on @cnn.com to talk about my latest @foreignaffairs.com article and why tariffs are making the US less safe. You can watch the full segment here: youtu.be/NVcCG01gY5E

The New Supply Chain Insecurity Fortress America is not a safer America.

The security costs of protectionism are just as dire as the economic ones. For more on why, read my full take in @foreignaffairs.com paywall-free here: 🧵(6/6) bit.ly/4qkFBWR

Many allies have ambitions to expand their own defense industrial bases. Some are already shying away from US weapons. Denmark recently chose European models over American ones for its air defense system upgrade, while Spain has nixed plans to buy American F-35s. 🧵(5/6)

The US needs partners not just as a customer base, but as a source for innovation and production know-how—especially as Washington contemplates a future of drone- and AI-driven warfare. 🧵(4/6)

The US defense industry has never gone it alone. It has always relied on suppliers from around the world, especially in times of war. And US defense companies depend on international trade for the scale and profits to make their businesses viable. 🧵(3/6)

Detaching from global supply chains will raise costs and limit growth, making it more expensive for US producers of weapons and military equipment to build new factories—and source needed inputs. 🧵(2/6)

The New Supply Chain Insecurity Fortress America is not a safer America.

In Trump’s “Fortress America,” tariffs are the way to boost the country’s growth and bolster its defenses. But the US needs global supply chains and allies to maintain a strong and innovative defense industry. My latest for @foreignaffairs.com: 🧵(1/6) bit.ly/4qkFBWR

@cfr.org is accepting applications for the 2026–27 Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship and International Affairs Fellowship in Canada. Deadline to apply: November 30, 2025. Learn more: www.cfr.org/fellowships/

A Guide to Trump’s Section 232 Tariffs, in Maps President Donald Trump has launched a wave of Section 232 tariffs and investigations, seeking to protect U.S. national security. These graphics show the scale and structure of U.S. reliance on foreig…

For what Section 232 tariffs mean for the sectors already hit and the other ongoing investigations, read more at @cfr.org here: 🧵(5/5) on.cfr.org/4n8JrQe

Timber, Lumber, and Furniture: On Oct 14, Trump will impose tariffs on timber, lumber, upholstered wooden furniture, and kitchen cabinets. The US imports roughly 30% of its lumber. A third of the wood products subject to Section 232 tariffs are from #Canada 🇨🇦. 🧵(4/5)

Robotics and Industrial Machinery: The US imported $25 billion more than it exported in robotics and industrial machinery last year. #Germany 🇩🇪, #Canada 🇨🇦, #Japan 🇯🇵, and #Italy 🇮🇹 supply half of all imports. #China 🇨🇳 ships 8%. 🧵(3/5)

Medical Goods: The US is a net importer of PPE and medical equipment. 75% of medical devices marketed in the US are manufactured abroad. #China 🇨🇳 and #Mexico 🇲🇽 are leading suppliers of US imports of medical goods.🧵(2/5)

A Guide to Trump’s Section 232 Tariffs, in Maps President Donald Trump has launched a wave of Section 232 tariffs and investigations, seeking to protect U.S. national security. These graphics show the scale and structure of U.S. reliance on foreig…

With Gabriela Paz-Soldan, I’ve updated our Section 232 maps for the new investigations into medical equipment and robots and machinery—and newly announced tariffs on timber, lumber, and furniture. 🧵(1/5) on.cfr.org/4n8JrQe

A Guide to Trump’s Section 232 Tariffs, in Maps President Donald Trump has launched a wave of Section 232 tariffs and investigations, seeking to protect U.S. national security. These twelve graphics show the scale and structure of U.S. reliance on…

For what Section 232 tariffs mean for the sectors already hit and the other ongoing investigations, read more at @cfr.org here: 🧵(5/5) on.cfr.org/4n8JrQe

Wind Turbines: Two-thirds of the value of a typical US wind turbine is imported. Nearly a quarter of these imports are sourced from #Germany, and one fifth from #Mexico. 🧵(4/5)

Polysilicon: The US is a net exporter of polysilicon, but it relies on imports for solar products that use the material. #Vietnam, #Thailand, and #Malaysia supply the majority of US solar imports. 🧵(3/5)

Drones: Americans import nearly half a million drones a year as just 100,000 are produced domestically. Over half of US drone imports are sourced from #Malaysia, though Chinese-owned companies dominate the US market. 🧵(2/5)

A Guide to Trump’s Section 232 Tariffs, in Maps President Donald Trump has launched a wave of Section 232 tariffs and investigations, seeking to protect U.S. national security. These twelve graphics show the scale and structure of U.S. reliance on…

Trump is leaning into Section 232 tariffs—sectoral tariffs based on national security threats. From cars to copper, 12 sectors are now under investigation or already tariffed. These @cfr.org graphics lay out how important imports are for the US and where they come from 🧵(1/5) on.cfr.org/4n8JrQe

Mexico Is Facing a Second — and Worse — ‘China Shock’ A flood of Chinese imports threatens its efforts to diversify and grow its economy. The solution: greater integration with its North American neighbors.

In my latest for @opinion.bloomberg.com, I argue rising Chinese exports to Mexico are causing not just geopolitical heartburn for a country caught between two superpowers but also threaten Mexico’s future economic prosperity.

Timber and Lumber: The US imports roughly 30% of its lumber—most of it from #Canada. The American lumber industry has a long-standing trade dispute with Canada, alleging that their lumber products receive unfair subsidies. 🧵(10/10)

Critical Minerals: The US sources 12 critical minerals entirely from abroad. And it relies heavily on imports for another 28 critical minerals. Though #China supplies 6% of imports overall, the US depends on its adversary for specific minerals like rare earths. 🧵(9/10)

Semiconductors: The US relies heavily on foreign suppliers for semiconductors. #China, a leader in ATP globally, supplies more than a quarter of US imports. #Taiwan supplies a fifth and #Mexico ships 15%. 🧵(8/10)

Pharma: While #Ireland is the top pharmaceutical supplier by value, this is partly the result of tax dodging by American companies. When measured by weight, the United States depends on #China for 44% of all pharmaceutical imports. 🧵(7/10)

Aircraft and Jet Engines: Unlike most other goods under Section 232 investigation, commercial aircraft, jet engines, and related parts already face a 10% tariff under the IEEPA. Close to half of US imports come from the #EU and a quarter from #Canada. 🧵(6/10)

Trucks: Nearly half of the trucks sold in the US are made abroad. Truck imports are more concentrated than cars. #Mexico and #Canada capture over 80% of the market. 🧵(5/10)

Cars and Car Parts: Nearly 50% of all new cars and 60% of car parts come from overseas. #Mexico, #Japan, #SouthKorea, and #Canada are top auto suppliers to the US, while over half of imported auto parts come from #Mexico and #China. 🧵(4/10)

Copper: Trump announced a 50% tariff to start August 1. The United States imports roughly half its copper—mainly from allies #Chile and #Canada. 🧵(3/10)

Though Trump’s Section 232 tariffs will hit #China, they will also hit US allies and FTA partners—especially #Mexico, #Canada, #SouthKorea, and #Japan. 🧵(2/10)

Section 232 tariffs aim to protect national security. From cars to copper, 9 sectors are under investigation or already tariffed. These @cfr.org graphics lay out how important imports are for the US and where they come from. 🧵(1/10) bit.ly/3TCsOQo

What Trump Trade Policy Has Achieved Since ‘Liberation Day’ Ten CFR experts break down what the president's trade agenda has accomplished since he placed a ninety-day pause on his expansive “Liberation Day” tariffs.

I joined @inumanak.bsky.social @zoe-liu.bsky.social @edwardalden.bsky.social @bennsteil.bsky.social @hillmanje.bsky.social Brad Setser, Matt Goodman, Will Freeman, & Rebecca Patterson to reflect on Trump’s tariffs and what they have achieved since the 90-day pause. You can read the piece here: