Philippe Papin

Still satellite imagery of a nor'easter. This image contains the GeoColor product from the GOES-19 weather satellite from the morning of 2026-02-23.

A stunning satellite shot of a powerful nor'easter.

Further increases in confidence for an impactful winter storm are noted across the Carolinas with greater uncertainty still farther up the coast.

Winter Storm Severity Index. No more important added content to add from what is in the post text.

Take this storm seriously.

Moderate to major impacts are expected from the Central US through to the Northeast through the weekend.
- Hazardous to impossible driving conditions are expected. Avoid travel if at all possible.
- Widespread closures and disruption to infrastructure may also occur.

I’d be very careful with posting snow maps for the weekend storm this far out.

There’s still significant uncertainty with the amplitude & progression of both SW US + north stream troughs, which drives both the event duration & how far north heavy snow expands into the Northeast.

3 by 3 collage of NWS employees around the country

The National Weather Service is now hiring for both entry-level and seasoned meteorologist positions. Apply by January 29!

The entry-level positions are available in:
▪️ Houston, TX
▪️ Ft. Worth, TX
▪️ Hastings, NE
▪️ Great Falls, MT
▪️ Marquette, MI
Apply: www.usajobs.gov/job/854675700

I think @discord.com has taken up the spot that old school bulletin board forums like Storm2k, Wunderground, EasternUSWx had. 2015-2020 was the golden age of #wxtwitter but now that misinformation has taken a hold there it is hard to see a path where the online wx community is more unified again.

Here is the latest update from WPC on the California atmospheric river event where a moderate to high risk of flash flooding is anticipated for southern California on Wednesday Christmas Eve. Please stay safe through the upcoming Christmas holiday.
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...

Unseasonable warmth is forecast across a large portion of the Lower 48 this week. High temps will soar to 30-40 degrees above normal, with some areas as much as 50 degrees above normal. Dozens of daily temp records could be broken.

How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.

Wildfires can spread quickly — by the time one is nearby, you may not have much time. Have an evacuation plan, and prepare an emergency supply kit ahead of time. Listen to local officials for emergency information and any evacuation orders.

Nice! Thanks for producing that on such short notice!

Awesome! Yeah it’s a great way to highlight the evolution of these important environmental values for TC activity.

❄️ D.C.'s first measurable snow of the season covers the capital in a hush of flurries. Winter is making a return with cooler than normal temperatures in the forecast for the next several days.

Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov.
Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS

Sad but true 😔… felt this a lot of times in upstate SC.

Really love the idea you have of producing joint probabilities of relevant TC env, but can’t help but wonder how sensitive this result is to the thresholds you have chosen. Maybe try RH >70%, SSTs >27C, & shear <7.5 m/s. May also need to use vortex removal to get rid of TC influenced environments.

Interesting plot… but a little confused on the AEW activity right at the end of the plot in late Oct right before Nov. Aside from the wave the spawned #Melissa what other waves were contributing to the index… could this be a case of much activity produced by one single TC in the MDR box?

Persistent fog and low stratus clouds have been plaguing California's Central Valley for the last week.

December is the coldest month of the year for most areas from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Ocean.

That’s great to hear the progress in this space! Really with future funding for supercomputers likely partitioning between both CPUs & GPUs, it’s going to be increasingly critical going forward for physics based models behind able to run with CPUs/GPUs. Looking forward to seeing the developments!

They won’t go away *if* funding is provided for these critical datasets. We are at a pretty precarious crossroads in ATMS. A big advantage of ML-based modeling techniques is efficiency gains using GPUs.

We should also spend similar efforts rewriting NWP for GPUs for similar parallelization gains.

11/30: Today is the last day of the 2025 hurricane season. The month of November has proven to be very quiet this year, with no named storms during the month. There weren't even any disturbances mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook the en... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1995096242884358356

Interesting to see that the only period where the shear went above normal in Aug-Sep-Oct was at end of October, when #Melissa was in the Caribbean.

There was significant shear affecting it from 10-21 to 10-24, but if there was no vortex removal, some of the increase may be the TC vortex itself?

Last sentence in the NPR article on "As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ends, the future of forecasting is AI" URL: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/29/nx-s1-5604290/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-ai-google

The last sentence resonated with me most. We now have a TC ensemble, in addition to hurricane regional models, capable of forecasting high-end TC intensity.

In Melissa's case, combo of HAFS-A/B & Google DeepMind increased confidence in a Category 5 forecast.

Human interpretation & NWP still vital.

Southeast Asia floods: More than 250 deaths reported – DW – 11/28/2025 Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have been hit by flooding and landslides after days of torrential rainfall. The death toll rose sharply in southern Thailand, with at least 145 now reported dead.

Unfortunately #Senyar has been a very impactful system. Widespread flooding appears to have taken the lives of hundreds of people across #Thailand, #Malaysia, & #Indonesia. 😔

www.dw.com/en/southeast...

Impressed with the resilience of #Senyar… looks like a coherent circulation may have made it across #Malaysia. Nice radar coverage showing the last 24h revolution as it crossed from the Malacca Strait ➡️ South China Sea.

Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth

Is your vehicle ready for the winter? Watch this brief video to know what needs to be in your emergency kit and how to winterize your vehicle. For more winter weather safety tips visit weather.gov/safety.

Following the ongoing winter storm across the Upper Midwest, another storm system is forecast to impact parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with wintry weather this weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast and check weather.gov for more information. ❄️

Key Messages for Thanksgiving Week Winter Storm issued on Wed, Nov 26, 2025, 3:25 AM CST. - A storm will move into the western Great Lakes today, bringing blizzard conditions, strong winds, intense snowfall rates (primarily along the southern shore of Lake Superior), & lake effect snow. - Snowfall will end over Minnesota later today. Heavy snow with rates of 1-2 in/hr will continue over far northern Wisconsin and especially into the western portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Lake effect snow will start over Lower Michigan and then downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario later today and overnight. - Blizzard conditions will make travel impossible at times across portions of the western Great Lakes this morning and overnight. Lake effect snow of 1-2ft, and locally higher, is forecast downwind of western Lake Superior over northern Wisconsin into the western U.P. of Michigan. Heavy snow and gusty winds will commence downwind of Lake Erie between Cleveland and Buffalo tomorrow.

Here are the latest key messages for the current storm impacting the Great Lakes.
Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov and find the latest storm summary here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

NOAA’s GOES-19 satellite captured Hurricanes Imelda (left) and Humberto (right) churning off the U.S. east coast on Sept. 30, 2025 (Credit: NOAA).

The Atlantic basin saw 13 named storms in 2024, with four reaching major hurricane status. They were: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo and Melissa. Tropical cyclone names are selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)

JUST IN: The 2025 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason ends on Nov. 30 with 13 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, of which 4 intensified to be major hurricanes.

Find our news release, images and wrapup video at: noaa.gov/news-release...

@nws.noaa.gov

Title & Abstract of the National Hurricane Center Verification Report Preview.

Figure 5 of the Verification Report Preview

Figure 7 of the report comparing NHC intensity forecasts of Michael (2018), Dorian (2019), Otis (2023) vs. Melissa.

The National Hurricane Center has put together a 2025 Verification Preview.

Covers a prelim view on seasonal track, intensity, & genesis 🌀forecasts. Also touching on rapid intensification forecasts & Melissa which was the most impactful storm of the year.

URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Veri...

After many long months, I’m excited to announce: we’re hiring!

GSL through CIRES is looking to hire a land-surface model developer. Come join us in developing the next generation of storm-scale NWP for NOAA & community! Closes 12/12, pls contact me w/ questions.

jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...