Peter Bay Kirkegaard

Toldaftale med USA bliver dyrere end ventet - DI Flere produkter end forventet får pålagt 50 procent straftold på grund af EU's toldaftale med USA.

Amerikanske virksomheder søger i stor stil om at få udvidet listen med stål-, aluminiums- og kobberprodukter, som bliver pålagt 50 procent straftold. Det koster danske virksomheder store beløb og har skabt et bureaukratisk monster i både EU og USA. @peterbay.bsky.social 👇

Ny post-told bremser pakker til USA - DI USA fjerner med kort varsel toldfritagelse for småpakker. Det kan udløse prishop på 200-300 procent, forventer DI.

USA fjerner med kort varsel toldfrihed for småpakker. Det sender regningen 200-300 procent til vejrs, forventer
@peterbay.bsky.social‬ #dkbiz www.danskindustri.dk/di-business/...

Dagens brev til EU er forhåbentlig forhandlingstaktik fra Trumps side.
30 procent straftold er uacceptabelt og skal hurtigst muligt fejes af forhandlingsbordet. Ellers må EU svare behørigt igen 1. aug, siger @peterbay.bsky.social til DR

Live fra Washington vurderer @peterbay.bsky.social om Trumps såkaldte big beautiful bills betydning for #dkbiz. Generelt kan danske virksomheder få gavn af den øgede økonomiske aktivitet, men der er også dårligt nyt for #dkgreen

Sådan kan Trumps hævnskat ramme danske virksomheder - DI USA's præsident kæmper for at få vedtaget skatteindgreb mod udenlandske virksomheder. DI forklarer her hvordan.

Trump vil i sit "smukke" budgetforslag straffe udenlandske virksomheder med hævnskat til skade for #dkbiz.
‪@peterbay.bsky.social‬ forklarer her, hvordan skatten er skruet sammen. www.danskindustri.dk/di-business/...

Det er selvsagt positivt, at spændingsniveauet mellem USA og Kina er kommet lidt ned med en ny handelsaftale. Uforudsigeligheden - som har været et gennemgående kendetegn ved Trumps handelskrig - består imidlertid, siger @peterbay.bsky.social

If - as rumour has it - the US eases export controls on advanced semiconductors as part of a trade deal with China, it would seem that China has been the main beneficiary of Trump’s trade war.

It might be time for the EU to impose counter measures in response to Trump’s hike of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50 pct. We need to increase the pressure on Trump to secure an end to the tariff regime. My message this evening on Danish TV2.

Live fra USA: Det er en stemning af vildrede i administrationen i 🇺🇸. Embedsmænd vil gerne have en aftale med EU, men når det når Trumps kontorer, ved ingen, hvad der sker, så det kan desværre stadig blive bekosteligt for europæiske virksomheder, siger @peterbay.bsky.social

Trump AG warns Hannah Dugan arrest is warning to other judges: "we will prosecute you" The FBI arrested a Milwaukee judge who allegedly tried to help an undocumented defendant avoid arrest.

NEW: AG Pam Bondi warned that the arrest of Wisconsin judge Hannah Dugan is a warning to other judges: "we will prosecute you"

Dozen states sue Trump in bid to block new tariffs The lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade argues that Trump cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.

A dozen states sue Pres. Trump in a bid to block his tariffs... ihttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/states-sue-trump-in-bid-to-block-new-tariffs.html

Vi kan næsten kun rådgive om toldkrigen fra time til time, for situationen ændrer sig hele tiden med nye meldinger. Som virksomhed kan man overveje at øge lageret i USA eller evt. samle dele af sit produkt i USA, men der er ingen nem løsning for nogen, siger @peterbay.bsky.social

New now: The White House says Canada/Mexico tariffs will remain UNCHANGED -- still 25% over fentanyl concerns, with exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods.

Note this is contrary to what the Treasury sec said initially, and what a WH official told me earlier. Details getting hammered out in real time.

Trump on why he announced a tariffs pause: "I thought people were jumping a bit out of line. They were getting a little bit yipee."

I’ve just been on Danish TV re Trump’s tariff pause. Positive that he now backtracks, but it has been a chaotic process. For companies, it is impossible to decipher what rules apply for tomorrow's US-trade. Uncertainty translates into a lack of investments and lower growth.

Even Americans don’t want Trump’s barmy tariffs, writes Douglas Irwin The trade historian predicts that the damage will be geopolitical as well as economic

Trump's tariffs?

No one was asking for any of this. A recent Gallup poll found that 81% of Americans surveyed believe trade is a growth opportunity—the highest level since the poll began in 1992—and only 14% view trade as an economic threat.

by @douglasirwin.bsky.social

“Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work”

Fantastic graphic from the WSJ. Trump just increased the price of a iPhone by nearly 60 percent. Obviously completely unsustainable so won’t be sustained. An American Liz Truss moment

Peter Navarro goes full Orwell on Fox News Sunday: "The message is that tariffs are tax cuts."

Med enorm viden om global handel skal @peterbay.bsky.social læse og oversætte signaler og politik fra Washington til virksomheder, politikere og den danske befolkning. Han opfordrer virksomheder til at række ud til DI’s styrkede USA-hjælp. 👉 www.danskindustri.dk/di-business/...

As seen in DC

Pointen er egentlig blot, at det som udgangspunkt er importøren, som betaler tolden, men det kan variere i henhold til kontrakten. Og for nogen virksomheder kan det komme som en ubehagelig overraskelse.

As always, excellent analysis and info. However, how much of a win is US sanctions relief for Russia? EU sanctions relief is what could help get Russian economy somewhat back on track, but seems unlikely that EU will grant that as part of a ceasefire.

The Trump effect. #MarketsDontLie

En øget amerikansk told skader både USA og de lande, der bliver ramt af tolden. Det vil ramme virksomhederne og i sidste ende forbrugerne. I en handelskrig er vi desværre alle tabere, siger @peterbay.bsky.social

It does. Below figures show source of inbound FDI in the U.S.

And note that the U.S. has a significant investment surplus vis-a-vis Europe.

Is Europe still important to the US? Indeed so! US companies have more investments in Europe than in the entire rest of the world combined.

Data from US Commerce Department - International Trade Administration.

Just curious: at what point do former presidents Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden...

And former secretaries and officials (Mattis, Sullivan, Petraeus, Blinken and others) start speaking out forcefully and collectively about the destruction of the transatlantic alliance?

Will Trump do all the things he has said when it comes to tariffs? Who knows (probably not even himself), but if he does, it will bring US factories to a standstill and raises prices for US consumers. #NotGoodForAnyone. My main message on Danish TV yesterday evening.

Donald Trump threatens to impose 25% tariffs on EU goods US president warns levies will target auto sector and be applied ‘generally’

U.S. imported 577 bn USD worth of goods from EU in 2023. If those goods are slapped with 25% ekstra tariffs, US companies and consumers will have to pay around 144 bn USD more for those same goods. Inflation will go up or welfare will go down - either way, Americans are worse off.