@macroevoeco

Forecasting extinction risk for future-proof conservation decisions Conservation prioritisation emphasises currently threatened species, but there are strong arguments for complementary, more proactive approaches based on forecasting future extinction risk for unthreatened species. Forecasting methods vary in the timescale of extinction risk estimation and include established methods such as Population Viability Analysis (PVA) and Early Warning Systems, and emerging ‘Over-the-Horizon’ (OTH) methods. We develop a framework that integrates extinction risk assessment across timescales and outlines tradeoffs between shorter- and longer-term extinction prevention goals. This framework facilitates use of extinction risk forecasting in decision-theoretic conservation prioritisation that explicitly considers alternative time horizons for extinction prevention. Considering extinction risk on extended timescales offers a future-proof approach to conservation planning that may prevent more extinctions than focusing exclusively on currently threatened species.

Online now: Forecasting extinction risk for future-proof conservation decisions

Conceptual framework for extinction risk forecasting that outlines key elements and tradeoffs associated with forecasting on different time horizons.

Online now: Forecasting extinction risk for future-proof conservation decisions.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Should conservation focus on threatened species? Or should we be proactive and protect species before they become threatened? This paper explores how to get the balance right.

Annual salary for a Professor at the ANU in 2025 is $227,921 services.anu.edu.au/human-resour...
, yet Genevieve Bell will be getting over *double* that, plus a $400k golden handshake for VC, PLUS $200k in research funds.

Yet apparently ANU is in a budget crisis?

Absolute rot in uni governance

What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.

It's *scientific publishing*.

We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...

Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇

Are you a university staff member? Tired? Stressed? Overworked? It will only take 5-6 mins to help independent researchers shine a light on the state of wellbeing in our universities. Results will be published and responses anonymous. Please help by adding your voice: nteu.info/census

Language complexity is more likely to evolve in small, isolated populations, a recent study shows.

www.pnas.org/doi/epub/10....

AES 2025 ECR Awards – Apply Now!

Submit your best paper (preprints welcome!) for a chance to give a 30-min plenary at AES 2025 in Brisbane.

Two categories:
PhD and Postdoc

Winners get $500 travel support + free rego

🔗 ausevo.com/2025_researc...

E&E Seminar Series: Boom-bust population dynamics drive rapid genetic & Conserving species with an ecological niche perspective This seminar is presented by Dr Emily Stringer and Dr Jarrod Sopniewski, Postdoctoral Research Fellows from the Centre for Conservation Ecology and Genomics at the University of Canberra.

‪Join us on campus & online on Thursday, 7 Aug 2025 at 1pm for a seminar by Dr Emily Stringer & Dr Jarrod Sopniewski, Postdoctoral Research Fellows from the Centre for Conservation Ecology and Genomics at the University of Canberra. Details: rb.gy/x3t1fm

enormous phylogeny of ~700 Grevilleoideae plants plus outgroups with major tribes and fossil calibrations highlighted

New paper out today in @pnas.org presenting near-complete phylogeny of the Grevilleoideae subfamily of Proteaceae plants, representing years of work and huge collaboration from an amazing team - ft. @marcelcardillo.bsky.social @hsauquet.bsky.social @austinmast.bsky.social and many others not on bsky

Why is there such variation in species diversity among regions? Work led by @alexskeels.bsky.social shows that the history of climate change driving expansion & contraction of biomes is at least as important as current environments. ‬https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2502129122

Please share: PhD scholarship opportunity in mathematical ecology on the value of information for improving ecological management, open to international students, with a great team @hugepossum.bsky.social, Katriona Shea, Kate Helmstedt, & me at UQ, Australia 🌍 🧮, study.uq.edu.au/study-option...

New preprint: we advertise DAFNEE, a database of academia-friendly eco-evo-archaeo journals. 1/6
#AcademicPublishing #ecoevo #archaeology #EthicalPublishing #SocietyJournals #DiamondOpenAccess
doi.org/10.32942/X24...

Great to get this paper out on macroevolutionary trends of the hyperdiverse southwest Australian and eastern Australian floras! @alexskeels.bsky.social

Article is open access and can be downloaded here:
lnkd.in/gaxzYppQ

Macroevolutionary analysis of polysynthesis shows that language complexity is more likely to evolve in small, isolated populations | PNAS Evolution of complexity in human languages has been vigorously debated, including the proposal that complexity can build in small, isolated populat...

Macroevolutionary analysis of polysynthesis shows that language complexity is more likely to evolve in small, isolated populations

Bromham et al., PNAS

www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Macroevolutionary analysis of polysynthesis shows that language complexity is more likely to evolve in small, isolated populations | PNAS Evolution of complexity in human languages has been vigorously debated, including the proposal that complexity can build in small, isolated populat...

Is language complexity more likely to evolve in small, isolated populations? We test this idea using global occurrence of one particular form of morphological complexity - polysynthesis (complex word forms that embody whole phrases) www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

#ICCB2025 I'll be presenting our work on "Over the Horizon" extinction risk forecasting for proactive conservation planning at 10:30am on Monday, in M2.

It will be minus 3 degrees in Canberra tonight so looking forward to escaping to Brizzie for a few days...

WE DID IT, FOLKS
A song for the entomologists of the USDA m.youtube.com/watch?v=yYSI...

Open letter: Staff call on the ANU executive to stop these unnecessary cuts Fact sheet on 'Renew ANU so far': https://shorturl.at/iYVjc Open Letter PDF for print with QR codes to sign: https://shorturl.at/5KYs3 __________________________________________________ Letter to AN...

Open letter: The ANU executive is planning a new round of unnecessary and damaging cuts and forced redundancies. We are asking staff to sign this open letter calling on the executive to cancel planned CMPs and to be transparent about ANU’s finances.

ANU colleagues please sign and share widely.

ANU colleagues, stand up and protect your workplace and each other. Let's stop the reputational and psycho-social damage being done by the disproportionately heavy-handed response of the executive. Please sign and share widely in your networks. #ourANU

More great PhD opportunities, this time with @felicitymeakins.bsky.social

study.uq.edu.au/study-option...

Illuminating the cosmos: ANU students light up Mount Stromlo Students from the ANU School of Art and Design are showcasing astronomically inspired work as part of the Enlighten festival.

We love it when art and science meet to create something spectacular! ✨

These amazing projections at Mt Stromlo Observatory were produced by ANU art and design students for Enlighten Festival.
science.anu.edu.au/news-events/...

Really sad to report that our friend and colleague Richard Fortey passed away this morning after a short battle with cancer. We’ll all miss his wit and wisdom. Here he is checking out a dino footprint we found while filming together on the Isle of Wight

This study confirms what Robert May once said: "As we
move from the furries and featheries, down through the innumerable species of insects, and on down to bacteria and viruses, sentimental concern does not merely wane. It changes sign.”

Letter of Support for nomination of @ARC_Tracker for a Eureka Prize for Leadership in Science In signing this form you endorse the proposal to nominate @ARC_Tracker for a Eureka Prize in the category 'Leadership in Science'. The list of signatories will be appended to the nomination form. I wi...

Australian Researchers,

If you want to support @arc-tracker.bsky.social being awarded a Eureka Prize for Leadership in Science, sign this letter of support.
forms.gle/WxfVjk9JaGpn...

Q: "Are they eligible?",
A: "Let's find out"

Sign, repost & send the link to colleagues. Word of mouth. Do it!

Evolution of sexual size dimorphism in tetrapods is driven by varying patterns of sex-specific selection on size - Nature Ecology & Evolution A phylogenetic comparative analysis of male and female body size across tetrapods globally shows that directional change in size is usually greater in males but reveals different underlying mechanisms...

I'm very happy to announce I just published a paper from my post doc with Gavin Thomas in @natureecoevo.bsky.social! So if you're interested in #macroevolution, #phylogenetics and sexual size dimorphism (SSD), strap in

doi.org/10.1038/s415...

If you are interested in applying population genomics, experimental genetics, and innovative breeding to dissect the genetic basis of resilience in future environments, please contact me. You will join my lab and a wonderful team of researchers from the ARC training centre in predictive breeding.

The genotype concept and language evolution

Genotype/phenotype distinction is critical in evolutionary theory
(e.g. Central Dogma: DNA<->RNA->protein).

Languages don’t have separate genotype & phenotype – so do they break evolutionary theory? Or can we still apply biological methods to language data? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

A bit late to the Bluesky party, but I'll start with a plug for our non-technical, non-mathematical, introductory text on macroevolution & macroecology.

It probably won't give you many answers to big questions about biodiversity. But hopefully it will give you the tools to ask good questions.

@puttert.bsky.social and I are organising the ANU Research School of Biology's Ecology and Evolution seminar series for 2025 🌏🗣. Any researchers based in Oz 🇦🇺 and keen to connect with #TeamCanberra should reach out! We have also budget for travel 🛩