Jacob Bastian

It is important for researchers and policymakers to think about the interaction of policies, not just one program at a time.

I wrote a short analysis of the US’s two most important tax credits

Here’s EITC+CTC combined by income, kids, marital status

www.rstreet.org/commentary/h...

SI 2025 Development of the American Economy Format: Authors will be given the full 50 minutes of each session, with questions during the presentation.

8/ 📅 July 25
⏰ 9:45 am: "Universal Pre-K as Economic Stimulus: Evidence from Nine States & Large Cities in the U.S." feat. @jacobbastian.bsky.social @kirabojackson.bsky.social

That's a wrap! For more info on this week's sessions, see the schedule: www.nber.org/conferences/...

See you next year!👋

Opinion | Why American Jews No Longer Understand One Another

Very thoughtful. Rather than blurbing, just read the whole article

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/20/o...

Universal Pre-K as Economic Stimulus: Evidence from Nine States and Large Cities in the U.S. Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

These estimates rely on great paper by @kirabojackson.bsky.social , @julia-turner.bsky.social , & @jacobbastian.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w33767 However, my inferences from their paper are based on my own regional econometric model of how shocks to labor supply affect a state's economy.

Short-Run Fiscal Effects of Expanding Michigan's Preschool Program to be Universal This policy paper provides some updated estimates of the short-run fiscal effects of expanding Michigan’s state-funded preschool program, the Great Start Readiness Program (GSRP), to encompass univers...

I have an update to my prior paper on the benefits of Michigan's pre-K program. This new paper estimates the fiscal benefits of Michigan moving from its current program to a universal program. Key finding: fiscal benefits for state cover about 2/3rds of costs. research.upjohn.org/up_policypap...

Opinion | Depopulation Is Coming. Don’t Expect It to Solve Our Problems.

Good article (based on their forthcoming book!) by my former CEA colleague @mikegeruso.bsky.social

The Population Bust Won’t Solve the Climate Crisis www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/o...

Sun Bucks: A new chapter in the fight against child hunger | Brookings

State policymakers are missing a free lunch—figuratively and literally—by declining to implement a new federal program that offers summer grocery benefits to low-income children. Resources that could fight hunger, support families, boost local economies

www.brookings.edu/articles/sun...

5/ These CTC changes are on top of other way that this bill will harm low income families —like cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.

In short: this CTC change helps higher earners and does not help—and may even hurt—those who need it most.

Trump’s Proposed $5,000 Child Tax Credit: Analyzing Various Approaches - R Street Institute President Donald J. Trump’s proposal for a $5,000 Child Tax Credit (CTC) has sparked interest, though details remain scarce and largely undiscussed. This post delves into possible ways this campaign p...

4/ Who benefits most? Families earning up to $400k–$500k.

Related to similar analysis I did:
www.rstreet.org/commentary/t...

3/ The bill also raises the phase-in threshold from $2,500 to $3,000—meaning some of the poorest families would actually get less CTC than they do under current law.

2/ The full $2,500 per child only goes to families earning enough. For 2 kids, that’s over $34k. For 3 kids, over $53k. Many low-income families wouldn’t benefit from the expansion at all.

A Complete List of Everything in the Republican Bill, and How Much It Would Cost or Save In hundreds of provisions across taxes, spending and more, the G.O.P. megabill would preserve lower tax rates for most Americans, increase federal debt by nearly $3 trillion and make large cuts to Med...

1/ One headline change in the new GOP tax bill is raising the Child Tax Credit from $2,000 to $2,500. Sounds great—until you look at the details. 🧵

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

www.nber.org

New research w/ @kirabojackson.bsky.social & @julia-turner.bsky.social on NBER homepage

“Universal Pre-K across 9 states & cities increased LFP by 0.8 pp, employment by 0.9 pp, & weekly hours worked by 0.42, with strongest effects for moms. Each $1 spent on UPK generated >$3 in additional earnings”

Looking forward to talking about the earned income tax credit (EITC) as it turns 50 years old this year.

Will be a great event tomorrow at 10am EST at @brookings.edu

www.brookings.edu/events/the-e...

Today is the submission deadline for my favorite conference and I just submitted a few papers! Hope to see you in Boston in November

ntanet.org/2025/03/118t...

Do wage subsidies increase labor force participation?

My first @brookings.edu blog!

Evidence from 30 countries: EITC-style wage subsidies consistently raise employment—especially among single parents and marginal workers—and remain one of the best policies to reduce poverty and bring more people into the labor force

www.brookings.edu/articles/do-...

Universal Pre-K as Economic Stimulus: Evidence from Nine States and Large Cities in the U.S. Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Universal Pre-K led to a 1.2% rise in labor force participation, a 1.5% increase in employment, and a 1.6% growth in hours worked according to important new research by @kirabojackson.bsky.social, @julia-turner.bsky.social & @jacobbastian.bsky.social.
www.nber.org/papers/w33767

Grateful to be a new NBER Faculty Research Fellow! Thank you to those who nominated me and helped get me here

Thanks Josh! 🙏🏼

I’ve been using chatGPT verbal/audio to improve my Spanish. Prompt as “role play my Spanish teacher” and it works pretty good. Anybody using it in similar way and have tips/advice/ideas?

Consumer sentiment plunges in early March, inflation expectations soar Even among Republicans, sentiment declined by double digits.

It's just the preliminary numbers, for which n=~420, and sentiment hasn't been a good guide to consumer activity in recent years. But this is, um, really bad.

www.axios.com/2025/03/14/c...

The deadline for submissions to the 2025 IIPF Annual Congress, scheduled for August 20-22 in Nairobi, Kenya, is coming up soon: February 22.

Submit here:
www.conftool.pro/iipf2025/

Conference is August 20-22, 2025.

I’m going and hope to see you (and your public economics research) there!

Mexico Managed to Stave Off Trump’s Tariffs. Now What? Mexico managed to temporarily avoid President Trump’s threatened 25 percent tariffs by making promises on border security, but it is unclear if the country can fulfill its pledge.

Reducing US fentanyl won’t be easy:

1. $800 of chemicals produces a kilo that can net a profit of up to $640,000 (many will have incentive to take that risk)

2. Over 80% sentenced for fentanyl at southern border are U.S. citizens (not migrants)

www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/w...

While violent crime is def a fee bigger social issue than property crime, the steady, unrelenting decline in property crime (which is basically a decline in theft, which is ~70% of index property crime) is not remarked-upon enough.

It’s really striking.

Tweet FROM SHAMS: BREAKING: The Los Angeles Lakers have agreed on a trade sending D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis and three second-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton, sources told ESPN. https://t.co/V175zGtmKW

FROM SHAMS:

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Lakers have agreed on a trade sending D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis and three second-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton, sources told ESPN. https://t.co/V175zGtmKW

Was just on a flight with a crying baby, I mean crying for like an hour. So I walked back to the parent, looked at her, and asked if I could buy her a drink, because wow, that’s not easy work.

Happy to say she enjoyed some rosé

Nope. But I’d love your recap! Thanks for being on it

Reforming the Child Tax Credit: A Look at the Family Security Act - R Street Institute Efforts to expand and reform the Child Tax Credit (CTC) remain a priority in discussions around family policy. The 2021 expansion of the CTC, discussed in a previous R Street post, provided significan...

Post here:
www.rstreet.org/commentary/r...

Options for better targeting support to children in lower-income & working-class families: (1) don’t reduce EITC benefits, (2) provide a small credit to the poorest families with little to no earnings, (3) phase out benefits to higher-income families at lower incomes (perhaps under $150,000)