Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Statement from the American Economics Association.

Signed by

AEA President & former USDOL Chief Economist @lkatz42.bsky.social

Former BLS Commissioner Abraham

Former Treasury DAS & Chief Economist Dynan, &

Chair of AEA Govt Relations Committee Ken Troske
bsky.app/profile/mart...

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?

Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

Trump's tariffs could squeeze US factories and boost costs by up to 4.5%, a new analysis finds A new analysis suggests President Donald Trump's tariffs could increase factory costs by 2% to 4.5%.

4/ For more on the tariff analysis, check out the exclusive report from Josh Boak and Paul Wiseman @apnews.com
👇
apnews.com/article/trum...

3/ Even before the new tariffs announced last night, Chris Bangert-Drowns estimated more than 1 in 10 U.S. workers (23 million) work in an industry highly exposed to tariffs. Employment has steadily dropped in those sectors since March.

Read more here ⬇️ equitablegrowth.org/tariffs-impa...

2/ Some have pointed to weakness in secondary indicators as a sign that the U.S. labor market needs policy support. Consistent with this idea, employment in about half of industries is declining, including within manufacturing, which is especially exposed to tariffs.

JULY's #JobsReport just dropped 📈📉

Here are key things to know. A 🧵:

First,

Despite the weak payroll data and downward revisions to previous months, today's data show a stable and still fairly strong U.S. labor market. But various indicators have clearly cooled since 2023.

Current Career Opportunities at Washington Center for Equitable Growth See current career opportunities that are available at Washington Center for Equitable Growth

🚨 JOB ALERT 🚨 Equitable Growth is hiring. Come join our team!

We have exciting opportunities for the following positions:

📌 Government Affairs Associate
📌 Chief Economist, and
📌 Operations Manager

Check out the job postings for more info and how to apply ⬇️
equitablegrowth.applicantpro.com/jobs/

For the #EGEssaySeries, Yotam Margalit discusses how "the appeal of right-wing populism is rooted in culture and identity-based grievances."

See more on the factors affecting the rise of right-wing populism and potential solutions for policymakers to address it ⬇️
equitablegrowth.org/countering-r...

Tariffs impact U.S. industries differently, with manufacturing the most exposed How tariffs on imported inputs could raise costs for U.S. industries and workers—with a novel interlinked dataset and code for researchers.

"Trump’s far-reaching tariff policy is sure to have deep and often contradictory economic consequences for the United States and the world."

Chris' analysis reveals how tariffs will impact U.S. industries and workers, and how costs might be distributed.

More 👇
equitablegrowth.org/tariffs-impa...

Trump's tariffs could squeeze US factories and boost costs by up to 4.5%, a new analysis finds A new analysis suggests President Donald Trump's tariffs could increase factory costs by 2% to 4.5%.

New analysis released Tuesday points to the challenges President Trump might face in trying to sell tariffs to the public as a broader political and economic win.

“There’s going to be a cash squeeze for a lot of these firms,” EG's Chris Bangert-Drowns told @apnews.com.

apnews.com/article/trum...

Adoption of generative AI will have different effects across jobs in the U.S. logistics workforce An exploration of the mechanisms that may shape generative AI's potential to transform the U.S. logistics workforce.

Generative AI will impact the U.S. logistics workforce differently, with some jobs highly vulnerable and others less so. Read more on how AI might impact different job roles and see recommendations to help ensure AI's benefits are shared widely, not just by a few.

Equity Prices, Market Power, and Optimal Corporate Tax Policy A novel contribution to the optimal tax literature, with a focus on the interaction between market power and corporate tax policy.

"MPW significantly crowds out productive investment and accordingly can rationalize a high corporate tax rate."

In a new working paper, Ignacio González, Juan Montecino, and @josephestiglitz.bsky.social explore how "market power wealth" impacts the economy.

🔗:

SI 2025 Development of the American Economy Format: Authors will be given the full 50 minutes of each session, with questions during the presentation.

8/ 📅 July 25
⏰ 9:45 am: "Universal Pre-K as Economic Stimulus: Evidence from Nine States & Large Cities in the U.S." feat. @jacobbastian.bsky.social @kirabojackson.bsky.social

That's a wrap! For more info on this week's sessions, see the schedule: www.nber.org/conferences/...

See you next year!👋

7/ 📅 July 24 (con't)
⏰ 11 am: "Long-Run Impacts of Social Assistance on Marginalized Groups & Life Trajectories" ft @jasonbcook.bsky.social @chloeneast.bsky.social
⏰ 1:30 pm: "Dynamic Individuals, Static Neighborhoods: Migration, Earnings Changes & Concentrated Poverty" w/ #EGgrantee Andrew Garin

6/ 📅 July 24 (con't)

⏰ 9:00 am:

In the session on "Children and Families," #EGgrantee(s) @marthajbailey.bsky.social, A.R. Shariq Mohammed, and Paul Mohnen will present their research called "Upward Educational Mobility in the U.S. over the Twentieth Century and the Role of Public Education."

5/ 📅July 23
⏰2pm: "Are Hospital Acquisitions of Physician Practices Anticompetitive?" ft #EGgrantee(s) Zack Cooper @stuartcraig.bsky.social @proffionasm.bsky.social
📅July 24
⏰9am: "Clause and Effect: Theory & Field Experimental Evidence on Noncompete Clauses" ft Bo Cowgill & @evanpstarr.bsky.social

4/ 📅 July 22
⏰ 1:10 pm: In the session "Labor Studies / Public Economics," former EG Steering Committee member Raj Chetty from @oppinsights.bsky.social, #EGgrantee Matthew Staiger and co-authors will present research called "Creating High-Opportunity Neighborhoods: Evidence from the HOPE VI Program.

3/ 📅 July 21 (con't)

⏰10:40 am: EG Steering Committee member @dacemoglumit.bsky.social presents "Automation and Rent-Dissipation: Implications for Wages, Inequality and Productivity"

⏰11:40 am: "Minimum Wages & Workplace Injuries" featuring #EGgrantee(s) Jisung Park and @annastansbury.bsky.social

2/ 📅 July 21

⏰ 10:10 am: In the session "Environmental & Energy Economics," 2021 #EGgrantee @jmcolmer.bsky.social, EG Steering Committee member @cwolfram.bsky.social and EG collaborator @kclausing.bsky.social will present their research on "Global Effects of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms."

Welcome to #NBER Summer Institute Week 3!

We have a full week ahead of us, with sessions on environmental economics, minimum wages, children and families, and more!

See a 🧵 of highlighted sessions, along with where you can find #EGgrantee(s) and other network members in this final conference week.

For the #EGEssaySeries, @adamdean.bsky.social and @jamiemccallum.bsky.social review effects of declining job quality for workers and democracy.
Read how unions bolster workers’ well-being and why they can counteract the rightward trend among working-class voters:
equitablegrowth.org/the-politica...

Temperature, workplace safety, and labor market inequality This working paper examines environmental externalities in the workplace and finds that increased temperatures exasperate labor market inequality.

Research from #EGgrantee Jisung Park was cited in Sen. Padilla's release, highlighting how temperature and workplace safety impact labor market inequality. Findings show hotter temperatures increase workplace injuries significantly, causing ~20,000 injuries/year.

equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...

Padilla, Chu, Colleagues Join Union Workers to Announce Legislation to Protect Workers from Extreme Heat - Senator Alex Padilla WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, on the heels of another harsh heat wave across California, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Representative Judy Chu (D-Calif.-28) joined union workers from the…

Yesterday, @padilla.senate.gov joined union workers to unveil legislation shielding workers from dangerous heat exposure. The bill mandates OSHA to create a federal standard, and employers would be required to train employees on heat illness risks and response.
www.padilla.senate.gov/newsroom/pre...

New from me @equitablegrowth.bsky.social – our U.S. Inequality Tracker, released last week, showed that income inequality has been high but stable in the 21st century. But it doesn't include capital gains. With data from Jake Robbins, I look at how this would impact the trend in inequality.

Accounting for capital gains in income significantly increases U.S. inequality Capital gains in the United States are large and are distributed very unequally along the income distribution, with the bulk of them going to the very top.

Understanding how capital gains are accounted for can significantly change our view of income distribution. New findings suggest that when capital gains are included, U.S. income inequality appears more pronounced, especially at higher income levels.

Read more:

My terrible ten!

The 10 worst policies in the budget bill Trump signed earlier this month. 🧵

The 10 worst policies for equitable economic growth in the 2025 budget reconciliation law The 2025 budget reconciliation law’s 10 most harmful policies for Americans and economic growth over the next decade and beyond.

The 2025 #Reconciliation law touches almost every corner of the federal budget and U.S. economy. @dsmitch28.bsky.social analyzes 10 harmful policies included in the final bill.

How will they impact Americans and economic growth over the next 10 years and beyond?

equitablegrowth.org/the-10-worst...

Summer Institute 2025 NBER conferences are by invitation. All participants are expected to comply with the NBER's Conference Code of Conduct.

6/ That's a wrap for #NBER Week 2!

To learn more about the conference sessions and papers to be discussed, check out the full conference schedule here: www.nber.org/conferences/...

We'll be back next week to preview Week 3 of the Summer Institute, where you can find our network members, and more!

5/ 📅 July 17 (con't)

⏰ 1:30 pm: In the session "Macro Public Finance," see the paper discussion, "The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty."

⏰ 3:20 pm: In the session "Industrial Organization," see "Mergers, Foreign Competition, and Jobs: Evidence from the U.S. Appliance Industry."

4/ 📅 July 16 (con't)

⏰ 3 pm: "Intergenerational Mobility and Housing Wealth in the United States" presented by #EGgrantee(s) Max Risch & John L. Voorheis, along with Ariel Binder

📅 July 17

⏰ 9:30 am: "A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation" feat. 2023 grantee Andres Blanco & co-authors