Kit Yates

Boris Johnson gave parents 'false hope' over schools reopening, Gavin Williamson tells Covid inquiry Watch as the former education secretary gives evidence at the inquiry, which is focusing on the impact of the pandemic on children and young people.

Gavin Williamson has described the decision to open, then close, primary schools on 4 January 2021 as “panicked”.

I would describe it as idiotic.

Kit Yates - Math(s) and the real world | Substack What happens when maths/science and society intersect? This substack is all about the real world applications and implications of maths/science. Click to read Kit Yates - Math(s) and the real world, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

This thread is adapted from my latest substack post.
Check out the full article here:
ENDS
open.substack.com/pu...
9/9

Records will always fall—but when they fall too fast, it’s a warning sign.
In sport, it’s exciting.
In climate, it’s alarming.
8/9

8/9

Three-quarters of athletes directly impacted by climate change, World Athletics survey finds | News | Athletics Better World | World Athletics Three-quarters (75%) of our sport’s athletes perceive a direct negative impact on their health and performance due to climate change

Athletics itself isn’t immune. After a sweltering Tokyo Worlds, Seb Coe admitted climate change could force summer events to move. 75% of athletes say heat is already affecting performance.
7/9
worldathletics.org/a...
7/9

Scientists use the “record ratio” to measure this. By 2020, hot records were 4× more frequent than expected. In 2024, that hot record ratio hit 6.2!
6/9
www.carbonbrief.org/...
6/9

Hot temperature records are being broken far more often than expected.
Contrastingly cold records are being broken far less often.
5/9
Both trends speak to the same message: the climate is warming.
www.nature.com/artic...
5/9

Evidence - NASA Science Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of

So if records keep falling faster than expected, the system isn’t stationary - it’s changing. And that’s exactly what we see in climate data.
4/9
science.nasa.gov/cli...
4/9

In a stationary system, the chance of a new record drops over time.
After 100 years of yearly recording, you’d expect ~5 records in total, after 1,000 years just two more (7 in total).
The maths behind this is the harmonic series:
3/9
plus.maths.org/conte...
3/9

Why Is The Long Jump World Record So Hard To Break? Mike Powell's WR has stood for 27 years and the #2 mark from Bob Beamon celebrates its 50th anniversary today. What explains their longevity? Are the best athletes in the NFL? Are the runways too soft? Is there a mental block?

In sport, records fall fast when training, diet, or tech improve. But eventually, events like the long jump hit a ceiling—records are rarely broken.
That’s what we call a “stationary” system.
2/9
www.letsrun.com/news...
2/9

At the World Championships in Tokyo, Armand Duplantis cleared 6.30m for his 14th pole vault world record. He’s literally raising the bar again and again.
But what does breaking records have to do with climate change? 🧵
1/9
1/9

I was defining the first digit reading a number from left to right and yes it definitely makes a difference.

Boris Johnson gave parents 'false hope' over schools reopening, Gavin Williamson tells Covid inquiry Watch as the former education secretary gives evidence at the inquiry, which is focusing on the impact of the pandemic on children and young people.

Gavin Williamson has described the decision to open, then close, primary schools on 4 January 2021 as “panicked”.

I would describe it as idiotic.

Johnson gave parents 'false hope' over schools reopening, Williamson tells Covid inquiry - live updates Watch as the former education secretary gives evidence at the inquiry, which is focusing on the impact of the pandemic on children and young people.

On the exam results debacle of 2020,
“Williamson said the model used was “not the right approach”, admitting he was aware well before results day that it would be unfair to many students.“

Headline: "Avian flu invades flock of nearly 2 million Washington hens"

The newsletter from agricultural producer news site WATT Poultry is now a primary source of my anxiety. H5N1 is exploding in North American poultry. Every day, a headline like this.

But no human cases. Either there aren't any or there's no testing. Given CDC's dismantling, I can guess.

Is the first digit of the number of your home odd or even?

🅰️ Odd
🅱️ Even

📊 Show results

Really enjoyed hearing @kityates.bsky.social talking about the science of predictions in this episode.

Hmmm, that is so weird. I guess just a typo as Scientific American is pretty reputable, but strange it made its was though the edits.

Proud of my son for achieving his late-stage capitalism badge at cubs!

Wiley retracts study stolen by reviewer, following Retraction Watch coverage A Wiley journal has retracted a paper more than a year after a researcher reported the work was hers and had been stolen by a reviewer for another journal. As we reported in July, Shafaq Aftab, now…

Well done Shafaq Aftab. When a reviewer stole her work and published it under his own name, she fought for a YEAR to get the journal to retract the paper. Just wondering why it took Wiley a YEAR to do this. 🧪 #academicsky

retractionwatch.com/2025/10/03/w...

Covid-19: Excluding doctors from vaccination programme puts patients at risk, clinicians warn Doctors have warned that the government’s decision to exclude health and social care workers from its covid vaccination programme is putting patients at risk and will have a major impact on an overstr...

Thanks Jacqui Young and @bmj.com for discussing this important subject with myself and @dralig.bsky.social

www.bmj.com/content/391/...

⚠️Prof @chrischirp.bsky.social Pagel reports on "significant Covid wave" in her substack
(🔗 on nxt)

"The last time we had more recorded Covid hospitalisations was two years ago, and this wave isn’t over yet."

1/ #KeepCovidBoosters

England is now experiencing a significant Covid wave, after 10 months of relative quiet The latest Covid situation in England and a look at where NHS services are as we head into winter

"Well it was nice while it lasted. We had an unprecedented 10 months of low and stable Covid levels in England - but this is now over. We are seeing a definite, significant wave of Covid infections across England."

CIDRAP Op-Ed: Why the CDC director is wrong about the MMR vaccine

Excellent op Ed about the issues with single vaccines published in response to Trumps Statement about single shots for Measles, mumps and rubella as well as CDC call for single vaccine manufacturer 🧵🧪#HealthPolicy

Thousands more university jobs cut as financial crisis deepens University workers will vote on national strike action this month over a 1.4% pay offer made in the summer.

"Universities have collectively announced more than 12,000 job cuts in the last year, new analysis from the University and College Union (UCU) suggests."

Make no mistake. Our university sector is in trouble.

The Trump Action Tracker is a British academic’s answer to Trump “flooding the zone” with anti-democratic and anti- rule of law behaviours.

It’s a one-stop-shop for logging thd lot. And the neta-analysis of what is happening is very enlightening… darkly.

See TrumpActionTracker.info

London hits clean air milestone 184 years early - ULEZ makes 'big difference' A professor has branded the success a 'truly remarkable turnaround for the city's air quality'

Thanks to London’s bold action, almost 10 million people are now breathing cleaner air.

That means fewer children will grow up with stunted lungs and fewer people will have to suffer from asthma, dementia and heart disease.

New Study Finds Annual COVID Vaccines Protect People against Severe Disease, Even with Prior Immunity A new study shows that receiving an updated COVID vaccine reduced people’s risk of severe disease and death in all age groups, regardless of immunity from prior infection or vaccination

“A new study shows that receiving an updated COVID vaccine reduced people’s risk of severe disease and death in all age groups, regardless of immunity from prior infection or vaccination”

“A study, published on Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, showed that last season’s 2024–2025 mRNA COVID vaccines reduced people’s risk of emergency department visits by 29%, their risk of hospitalizations by 39% & their risk of death by 64%”

Benefits were seen even if 0 risk factors

Millions of households face jump in water bills after watchdog’s ruling Five companies have been granted permission to increase their charges

Steve Reed says he’s going to abolish Ofwat – let’s hope whatever he replaces it with protects the public more than this 📈
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/water-bills-price-ofwat-b2842240.html

Case Ref: 1 message Beccy Cooper MP @drbeccycooper.co.uk> Mon, 6 Oct 2025 at 00:50 Dear Thank you very much for contacting me about your concerns regarding access to Covid-19 vaccination for Clinically Vulnerable people. Please accept my apologies for the delay in responding to your email. I am pleased to be able to confirm that the new Labour government is committed to strengthening our public health response and reducing health inequalities. Labour's recent commitments and statements have made clear that the principle of universal and fair access to vaccines particularly for those who are medically at-risk must be central to our national strategy. In Parliament, Labour MPs have called for a rapid review of JCVI eligibility criteria and for the reinstatement of free Covid-19 vaccination for all Clinically Vulnerable people, in line with the existing approach to NHS flu vaccinations. Many have highlighted, as you do, that the logic and evidence for including all at-risk groups in annual booster rollouts are overwhelming, given the ongoing pandemic context and emergence of new variants. Our party's manifesto commits to taking advice from clinicians and scientists and to working closely with NHS England to ensure that support for the most vulnerable is not withdrawn on cost grounds especially when this may lead to greater suffering and increased NHS pressure. There is widespread concern across Parliament about the risk of deepening health inequality and placing the cost burden of essential preventative care onto those least able to shoulder it. Thank you again for taking the time to share your concerns so powerfully. Best wishes, Dr Beccy Cooper MP Member of Parliament for Worth Parliamentary Office: House of C Telephone: 01903 496390 betw Clinically Vulnerable Families [LOGO]

🚨 BREAKING: Labour MPs back calls to restore NHS Covid vaccines for all Clinically Vulnerable people!

After pressure from CVF members and supporters - a rapid U-turn appears to be underway.

WELL DONE!

#KeepCovidBoosters campaign a HUGE success!