Piero Stanig

This new report of the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and
human rights docs.un.org/en/A/80/138 cites my work on trade shocks and economic nationalism with Italo Colantone, but also a paper of mine on extreme weather events with @simonecremaschi.bsky.social.

Robots, restructuring, and union retreat: How automation alters worker organization Modern employment structures challenge traditional forms of worker organization, risking continued union decline despite ongoing interest in collective action

wol.iza.org/opinions/rob... with @paoloagnolin.bsky.social, @massimo-anelli.bsky.social and Colantone

Finally typeset in @thejop.bsky.social, the paper with @simonecremaschi.bsky.social on the electoral impact of the Vaia storm in the Alps in northeastern Italy. Link to some free pdf views here www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

bsky.app/profile/psta...

New article from our latest issue (Issue 8, 2025): "In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-treatment Bias" by Paolo Agnolin @paoloagnolin.bsky.social , Italo Colantone, and Piero Stanig @pstanig.bsky.social

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

🚨3-Year Postdoc Position in Zurich @ipz.bsky.social

❓Political implications of labor market transformation

Plenty of flexibility, no teaching obligations, great research environment in an highly livable city.

Deadline: May 18, 2025.

tinyurl.com/postdoczurich

#polisky #poliscijobs #psjminfo

best thing to do if you are so worried about trade deficits as they seem to be: restrict sales of a valuable export.

more than Nobels, what is interesting is that a lot of high-paying jobs in finance, insurance, etc. then go to allegedly underschooled westerners (and there is some -quietly expressed- discontent for this). Or the depts of physics or economics at NUS employing many (mostly?) western or PRC scholars

every time I see someone praise the absurdly difficult and advanced math curriculum for kids in singapore I am reminded of this chart

good choice

I’m hearing a lot of people repeating the line that social democrats are not losing votes to the far right, so that invalidates the thesis that social democrats have lost touch with the working class and should address issues like migration. But this is missing the point

Immigration and Crime: An International Perspective (Winter 2024) - The association between immigration and crime has long been a subject of debate, and only recently have we encountered systematic empirical evidence on this issue. Data shows that immigrants, often younger, male, and less educated compared to natives, are disproportionately represented among offenders in numerous host countries. However, existing research, inclusive of our analysis of new international data, consistently indicates that immigration does not significantly impact local crime rates in these countries. Furthermore, recent studies underscore that obtaining legal status diminishes immigrants' involvement in criminal activities. Finally, we discuss potential explanations for the apparent incongruity between immigrants' overrepresentation among offenders and the null effect of immigration on crime rates.

Marie & Pinotti (2024): Very important paper, also in light of the policy debates in many countries:

- Immigration does not increase crime rates.
- Obtaining legal status decreases immigrants' involvement in criminal activities.

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

#EconSky #PolSky #MigSky #noAfd

📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo

This. Few things are more maddening than social scientists deliberately underestimating the agents they study. (Yeah they often make choices that might look silly prima facie; that we cannot understand them is an indictment of our discipline(s) more than anything else).

Me:

Ok so, paying attention to the technicalities, “the Federal President dismissed the cabinet following a negative vote in the legislature.”

Yeah I know the story, but what I am saying is that “government collapse” is not the same thing to American ears. I venture that it sounds more like “Staatszerstörung” to those unfamiliar with parliamentary systems. As Germans would say, a constellation of misunderstandings

bsky.app/profile/mass...

Or “the legislature dismissed the cabinet, leading to a new election”

Maybe it’s just me (ESL US trained political scientist) but the expression “the German government collapsed”, which I keep seeing, does not really convey the correct impression, esp to US audiences. “The cabinet was forced to resign following a vote in the legislature” does not sound that ominous

osf.io/preprints/os...

assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-738...

mostly voter reactions to direct exposure to extreme weather events.

🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️

Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇

Just getting the group average would be informative though. Not an experimental q. Ask at the very end if you are concerned with contamination

Some curiosity about the study that a superficial read did not assuage: did they ask respondents which menu *they* would choose? Crucial info to assess whether stereotypes are on target

go.bsky.app/FCaUxbu

Why democracy, backsliding, or autocracy? Unabashedly, I think this model has exceptionally rich results. The introductory overview is intended to be self-explanatory without delving into the math. See papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf

Job Market - Bocconi University Recruiting, Faculty, Post-doc Grant, Collaboration Contracts

#Polisky folks: Bocconi University is looking for AP in Environmental Politics & Policy 🌏

Offer: Great group of political scientists working at awesome social science university in a fabulous city 🙌

🚨 Deadline: 30th of November

Please share 🔁

Apply 🔗 & ℹ️ : jobmarket.unibocconi.eu?type=&dep=SPS

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

New paper with Paolo Agnolin and Italo Colantone: in a way, I wish we didn’t have to write it --it's just another primer on post-treatment bias. But it’s a fun paper...We show how one can break some of Colantone and Stanig's earlier results (i.e., ours!)

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

🚨 Publication Alert 🚨

Our paper about public service deprivation and far right support with @paularettl.bsky.social @marcocappelluti.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social is forthcoming at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! 🎉

👉 Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...

#polisky