Michael Dubner

Week 17 Is All That Matters: Best Ball Mania VI Update Of all the Best Ball metas debated over the years, "Week 17 Is All That Matters" has perhaps been the most polarizing. Polarizing, that is, in the wider best ball community. Legendary Upside wouldn’t ...

Tournament structure determines how we attack Best Ball drafts

I revisit the "Week 17 Is All That Matters" debate with a dive into the Expected Value of each round—tailored to Underdog Best Ball Mania VI prize structure

@legendaryupside.bsky.social

www.legendaryupside.com/week-17-is-a...

The Seven Most Mispriced Players on Underdog Michael Dubner makes his Legendary Upside debut, outlining the seven most mispriced players on Underdog.

The Seven Most Mispriced Players on Underdog

Anatomy of Rookie Risers and Fallers: Quarterbacks No moment shifts fantasy football ADP more dramatically than the NFL Draft. For months, drafters speculate on incoming rookie talent and landing spots. Then, in one weekend, the draft reshapes rookie evaluations and shakes up depth charts, triggering dramatic ADP swings in best ball tournaments. Some rookies will see their

Anatomy of Rookie Risers and Fallers: Quarterbacks

Tracking contest selection needs to be paired with proper exposure tracking.

My Best Ball Exposures Tracker lets you monitor:
🔹Bankroll Management
🔹 Contest Selection
🔹 Player Exposures
🔹 Roster Constructions
🔹 Stack Analysis
All in one place.

bsky.app/profile/mich...

💰 Opportunity Cost

When selecting contests, don’t just focus on the highest contest score. Also consider max entry cost relative to overall bankroll.

Despite a low contest score (31), The Little Board was just a $150 investment, making it worth it to build in volume.

🧠 Think in TIERS, not absolute scores:
80-100: Excellent ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
60-80: Good ⭐⭐⭐⭐
40-60: Average ⭐⭐⭐
<40: Poor ⭐⭐

Focus on which tier you're playing in, not whether a contest scores 72 vs. 75.

The DraftKings $1 20-Max: A hidden gem 💎

Contest score: 82/100 (Elite tier)
Rake: Only 9.1% (unheard of for $1 contests)
Max-entry fee: $20

The best low-stakes tournament I've ever seen.

The PERFECT Contest 💯

DraftKings $33 Single Entry

Only 12.3% rake
20% of prize pool to 1st
Finals min cash = 31x entry-fee
Playoff advance rates: 2/12 → 2/12 → 2/8 → 6-person final

The one downside? You only get one bullet.

Here’s the problem with the Flagship tournaments:

They have some of the WORST contest scores.

Sites use eye-catching 1st place prizes to bait you while tanking the overall tournament structure.

Underdog’s The Big Board contest score: 4️⃣1️⃣

The Biggest Board: 8️⃣0️⃣

What explains the difference?
🔸Lower rake: 7.4% vs 10.4%
🔸 Better prize distributions: 10th-to-1st ratio (10% vs 2.8%), Finals Min Cash-to-Max Entry (150% vs 50%)
🔸 More favorable playoff advance rates

Finals minimum cash prize: Keeping your bankroll alive

While we all chase the life-changing 1st place money, a Finals min-cash that covers your max entry cost is crucial for longevity. It's what keeps you in the game long enough to eventually hit that big score.

What makes a Best Ball contest good?

My Contest Score incorporates:
✓ Rake percentage
✓ Prize distribution (% to 1st, 10th-to-1st ratio)
✓ Finals minimum cash prize relative to max-entry fee
✓ Playoff advance rates

The secret to best ball: Before drafting a single player, your ROI is impacted by which contests you enter.

With more contests than you could possibly enter, you must decide which to play and which to skip.

Smart players select contests with structures matching their skill set.

Rake has a MUCH larger impact on your long-term ROI than you realize.

Lowering a contest's rake from 10% to 7.5% more than DOUBLES the number of profitable players.

t.co/TXMEyz40No

Why does contest selection matter? 🤔

→ Lower rake = higher ROI
→ Better prize structures = more ways to win
→ Fair advance rate odds = better chance of actually realizing your edge

Your ROI heavily depends on game selection

Your Best Ball game selection is probably costing you money 💸

Not all tournaments are created equal.

I've graded every best ball tournament and found some shocking disparities. Some popular contests are traps while others are gold mines hiding in plain sight.

2025 Best Ball Tournament Comparison

Ever wonder why some Best Ball drafters consistently outperform others? It's not just player selection—it's contest selection.

I built a Contest Score that might change how you approach tournaments this season. The results might surprise you...👇

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

After 1,000+ drafts, I learned:

📈 Tracking = Better portfolio and bankroll decisions
🚫 Guessing = Spot leaks in your portfolio and correct them

⬇️ Download the tool that helped me manage smarter

t.co/ogOTQ7aiwj

Analyze Your Results 🏆

Did your draft strategy actually pay off?

🏅Advance Rates
🏅Net Profit
🏅Results split out by: fantasy platform, tournament, draft month, draft pick, and more.

Roster Finder 🔍

Easily find teams by any parameter!

✅ Jalen Hurts - Saquon Barkley stack
✅ Drafted in the Pre-NFL Draft tournaments
✅ Picked from the 1.01 or 1.02

Enhanced Roster Overview 📊

Easily identify
1️⃣Stacks and correlation
2️⃣Roster constructions
3️⃣ADP Value

🐕Value Hound 🐕

ADP closing line value is one of the best predictors of a winning roster:

🔸 Efficient market hypothesis
🔸 Get ahead of ADP risers
🔸 Uniqueness with rare player combos
🔸 Humility: Best way to get exposure to overvalued players in your portfolio

Stacks & Week 📅 correlation

Draft to win in the weeks that matter the most.

Are you constructing logical rosters that tell a story?

Roster Constructions 🔢

Ensure you’re building to win with strategies like:
🔹 Anchor RB
🔹 Elite QB
🔹 Elite TE
🔹 WR4 by Round 7

Player Exposures 📊

🔸Which players are you drafting or ignoring?
🔸ADP Closing Line Value
🔸Flag: quickly spot players you’re extremely over- or under-exposed to

What gets measured gets managed.

Most drafters track nothing → repeat mistakes ❌

The tracker fixes this:

➡️ Portfolio Management
➡️ Implement the draft strategies you actually intended to use
➡️ Bankroll Management
➡️ Results Tracking: Did your strategy actually pay off?

🏈 2025 Best Ball Exposures Tracker 🏈

✅ Player exposures 📊
✅ Roster constructions 🔢
✅ Stacks & Week 📅 correlation
✅ The ONLY tracker that analyzes your results 🏆
✅ Works across ALL platforms (UD, DK, Drafters, FFPC)

⬇️ Download ⬇️
bit.ly/best_ball_ex...