Michael Wehner

And to consider the change in risk of near shore intense storms agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change Future ocean warming in eastern tropical Pacific will enhance US hurricane risk through changes in steering flow and wind shear. 

You may not want to assume that the risk of landfall remains constant at 11% www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

I presume these values are from the NOAA look up table. Recent work finds that they underestimate the heat index for very high values. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Thank you for posting. I have hundreds of hours into these (2,3,4,& 5) . At taxpayer expense, I might add.

Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is inte…

Probably not above the upper bound. But generally more than 7 standard deviations is "impossible" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

"Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts and heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and intense..." Present tense; attribution is recognized with this statement.

Congratulations Ben!!!

Photo of Ben Santer

Delighted to announce that Ben Santer is now an Honorary Professor @ueaenv.bsky.social & the Climatic Research Unit (CRU).

Ben is returning to his "academic home": he did his PhD in CRU before his stellar career developing "fingerprint" methods to identify human & natural effects on climate.

There are very few of us doing rigorous event attribution in the US. Extreme weather events are increasing but attribution scientists numbers are decreasing.😞

picture of a landslide in Medellin

What caused deadly landslides in Colombia? Finding out, should be easier. Tropical climates are complex, but if data are held by companies & organisations hiding them behind walls of bureaucracy it becomes impossible. @wwattribution.bsky.social study: www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-expo...

And to further bridge the stats/climate gap, I started this journal to aid in cross field communication. www.advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net

Climate Science Needs Professional Statisticians - Eos Climate science needs its own specialized “climostatisticians” as integral members of multidisciplinary research teams.

Having engaged with numerous professional statisticians, I find this a gross over generalization. As with any cross-discipline, success requires two way communication. And there is a language barrier. But recent workshops are bridging this gap. See my opinion piece: doi.org/10.1029/2019...

When we wrote the Cat 6 hurricane article, we recognized that a single number cannot convey local danger that individuals might face & instead recommended that NHC products, especially maps, are superior. NHC warnings have also become more direct. i.e. "certain death". Such messages might help here

How Hot Can It Get? Scientists Are Struggling to Find an Answer Figuring out how anomalously high temperatures can rise is taking on added importance as the planet warms.

It can get pretty hot.

The DOE BER takes a big hit. Scroll to page 102: www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...

Heatwaves affect different places in different ways. Leafy suburbs are cooler than more built up, concrete heavy areas, which means that disadvantaged communities are more likely to be more severely affected. Watch our super short video on heatwaves to find out more...
#heatwave

Apologize that i am such a curmudgeon. Comes with age...

To clarify.Impacts are often binary, then we can make the binary causal statement. But meteorology is not so binary. (And some impacts are not binary, like heatwave deaths) and it is important to note that impact attribution is in early stages. 2 important papers in review now

The dam breach is an extreme weather impact & I would agree. But I maintain my hot button for the ‘weather’ event. An important but subtle distinction

The title hits my hot button on causality. It causes them to be worse but doesn’t cause them per se. Complex events have complex causal factors

What bothered me is that the anchor asked her question in the future tense. It should be in the present tense.

References: doi.org/10.1038/s414... , doi.org/10.1007/s003... , doi.org/10.1007/s003...

Indeed, stationary estimates of precipitation flood frequency are inherently too low. We established non-stationary EV analyses of CONUS precipitation in a series of paper. This shinyapp can explore this (but needs updates to the most recent years) You can select seasonal or extreme precipitation

We often find 2-3x C-C in detailed attribution analyses due to enhanced local dynamics.

Connecting extreme weather events to climate change Advances in attribution science are improving understanding of human influence on our planet.

I explained what extreme event attribution is in this article. doi.org/10.1063/PT.3...

Connecting extreme weather events to climate change Advances in attribution science are improving understanding of human influence on our planet.

This article of mine might help folks understand event attribution. doi.org/10.1063/PT.3...

The evidence from attribution studies is that it has already substantially increased.

The study by Xueke Li and colleagues was published here in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA:
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
(see their ref. 37 for our original Petoukhov et al. 2013 paper)

Planetary waves linked to wild summer weather have tripled since 1950, study finds A new study says climate change has tripled the frequency of atmospheric wave events linked to extreme summer weather in the last 75 years.

A resonance phenomenon is causing big waves in the atmosphere. And that has increased due to #globalwarming, causing wild summer extremes, a new data analysis finds.
The mechanism was first identified in 2013 by the late Vladimir Petoukhov at the Potsdam Institute.
apnews.com/article/extr...

Here is the observed change in the 50 year return value (method is from doi.org/10.1038/s414...)