Wim Thiery

In our new paper in GMD @egu.eu by @seppelampe.bsky.social, we present BuRNN v1.0: an open-access, data-driven fire model. BuRNN largely outperforms current-generation process-based fire model across a range of metrics

model: github.com/VUB-HYDR/BuRNN
paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

NEW | India is forging a different #energytransition path to China 🇮🇳⚡

Where China built first on coal and gas, India is taking a shortcut — using cheap solar to meet rising demand, relying far less on fossil fuels, and electrifying transport earlier.

https://loom.ly/UFDLamw

NEW | 2025 was another RECORD-breaking year for the EU’s electricity transition, as wind and solar overtook fossil fuel generation for the first time.

Here’s what happened in the 🇪🇺 power sector last year, all in one thread 👇

🧵 1/9

A map of southeastern Australia showing the temperature anomalies during the heatwave.

While Australian heatwaves were some of the very first extreme events attributed to climate change, people still underestimate how much worse they got - killing more people than all other natural hazards combined. New @wwattribution.bsky.social study. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

NEW | Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the FIRST time ever.

🌪️ and ☀️ made up a RECORD 30% of 🇪🇺 electricity, up from 20% just five years ago.

https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2026/

Last week, @carbonbrief.org listed the top climate papers that were the most featured in the media. Proud to have our paper in #8!
The paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Graph showing: Danish new passenger car sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)

Denmark's December car sales data just released. Battery-electrics reached an incredible 81% in December to make up 68% for the year.

2025 global climate highlights are out:
🌡️ 2025 was 3rd warmest year on record, 1.47ºC above the preindustrial level
📈 2023-2025 is the first three year period above 1.5ºC (according to ERA5)
🌍 The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record

See: climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

⚒️🧪🌊

Graph showing: Chinese new passenger car sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)

China's December numbers are in, and battery-electric cars made up 35% in December and 33% for the year. Plug-in hybrids made up another 21% for the year for a total "new-energy" share of 54% in 2025.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

The US Academic Alliance for the IPCC (USAA-IPCC) was formed in March 2025 in part to prepare for this possibility and to ensure that US scientists remain able to engage in IPCC work regardless of the status and role of the US government. With the support of the USAA-IPCC, more than 70 US citizens and US-based experts who are currently serving the IPCC as coordinating lead authors, lead authors, review editors and committee members will continue to play these roles. “US climate scientists have made incredible contributions to understanding our planet’s life support systems and the impacts and risks of climate change. Their role as key players in IPCC reports have helped the US maintain our preeminent position in science and technology, and this global scientific cooperation will continue despite this unfortunate decision,” said Dr. Pamela McElwee, Professor of Human Ecology at Rutgers University, who serves as chair of the steering committee of the Alliance. “There is a reason we call our community the global scientific enterprise. We cannot grow, innovate, or advance unless we are linked together sharing, analyzing, and deliberating on vital climate data through critical international organizations like the IPCC. In the wake of this devastating move, AGU pledges to do all it can to bridge global partnership, research, and dialogue,” said Dr. Brandon Jones, President of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), which hosts the Alliance. The Trump Administration began disengaging from IPCC prior to yesterday’s formal announcement. Since February of 2025, the US State Department has not nominated experts for involvement in IPCC work, nor supported travel to IPCC meetings for selected authors, a role they have played in all prior administrations. The US government also did not participate in either of the IPCC business sessions in 2025, the first time the US has not been in attendance since the IPCC’s founding in 1988.

As a result, the USAA-IPCC has assumed a key leadership role in nominating US scientists for consideration as authors for IPCC reports, including for the Seventh Assessment Report (nominating 282 authors in April 2025) and the Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (nominating 33 authors in December 2025), as well as for roles on the IPCC Task Group on Data Support and for participation in several expert workshops. AGU and the USAA-IPCC have also raised funds to support travel for US scientists and technical experts selected by IPCC to attend author meetings and workshops. Since the founding of the IPCC over four decades ago, US scientists and other experts have made critical contributions, leading formal processes as Working Group co-chairs as well as filling vitally important author and reviewer roles. IPCC findings have shaped science-based policy at all levels—from global climate agreements to local resilience plans—and strengthen the ability of policy communities to make informed decisions. Ensuring US scientists remain fully engaged in the IPCC and the global climate science community will lead to important new research opportunities and international collaborations that benefit the US in substantial ways. The USAA-IPCC looks forward to continuing our support of US climate experts, climate science research, and the IPCC. —-- The USAA-IPCC (https://www.usaa-ipcc.org/) is composed of all the US academic institutions that have observer status with the IPCC – Colby College, College of the Atlantic, Dickinson College, Emory University, Indiana University, Princeton University, Rutgers University, Washington University in St. Louis, University of California San Diego, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and Yale University – together with the American Geophysical Union (AGU), which hosts the Alliance.

The Trump Administration's announced withdraw from the IPCC is disappointing, but not surprising. US scientists will continue to play key roles in the @ipcc.bsky.social. A statement from the US Academic Alliance for the IPCC:

Outrage as Trump withdraws from key UN climate treaty along with dozens of international organisations Experts decry move to leave UNFCCC as ‘embarrassing’ as president orders withdrawal from 66 international groups

The USA has pulled out of the UNFCCC. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

The UNFCCC underpins global climate action. It brings countries together to support climate action, reduce emissions, adapt to climate change, and track progress. The decision by the world’s largest economy and second-largest emitter to retreat from it is regrettable and unfortunate.

Here's the EU's reaction to Trump administration formally pulling the US out of the UNFCCC and IPCC.

But all eyes now on how/whether China chooses to seize this geopolitical gift from the US

🚨Professorship at St Andrews🚨

We are recruiting a Professor in Earth Sci (incl atmos, oceans, climate) @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social

Ideal candidate is a leading researcher with interests in impact/outreach. Deadline 23/3/26!

www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/...

With confirmed invited speakers Axel Kleidon and
@anabastos.bsky.social

📅 Official abstract submission deadline is 15 January 2026, 13:00 CET

Convened by Ryan Teuling @w-u-r.bsky.social, @innevanderkelen.bsky.social, Diego Miralles, @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social and myself

📢 Working on land atmosphere-interactions and their role in shaping climate extremes?

🌍 Consider submitting an abstract to our European Geosciences Union (@egu.eu) 2026 session:

Land-atmosphere interactions and climate extremes (CL4.4): www.egu26.eu/session/56763

Daily global temperature anomalies from 1940 to present, grouped by year, showing gradual global warming

2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5).

Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).

a world map with locations of extreme weather event studies by WWA in pink & yellow dots

Looking back to @wwattribution.bsky.social studies in 2025 showed again, in stark terms, how unfairly the consequences of human-induced climate change are distributed. The world does not have to be like this, we have a lot of agency to make it better. www.worldweatherattribution.org/unequal-evid...

Forget “Follow your passion.” At the School for Moral Ambition, we say: Follow the Gandalf 🧙

Gandalf didn’t ask Frodo about his passions. He said: “Here’s a world-sized problem. You’re the one to fix it.”

So… which big, solvable, overlooked problem could you be the unlikely hero for?

Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change Many mountain glaciers will disappear with warming. Here the authors assess how many glaciers will disappear per year under different warming scenarios, finding that a peak in glacier loss will happen...

This is find -dot- gif

Towards the middle of the century, ~4000 glaciers worldwide will disappear every year.

2025 was 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗴𝗶𝘂𝗺'𝘀 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟲. With 620.9 mm of rain, it follows a record-wet 2024. It is also the 4𝐭𝐡 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿, featuring the 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝘆 on record (12 Apr.). #Belgium #Climate #Weather | @meteobe.bsky.social
FR: www.meteo.be/fr/infos/act...
NL: www.meteo.be/nl/info/nieu...

Awesome turnout in support of @ncar-ucar.bsky.social at #AGU25. Take a look at how many people use our products!

Friends at NCAR, we're with you.

@ncar-ucar.bsky.social is a trailblazer in community modelling driven not by idealogy, but by open science. We share all our code, thoughts, ideas. These can't be shut down.

We'll fight and find every mechanism to support the ongoing CESM community.

NCAR’s Mesa Lab is literally a science castle dedicated to understanding our planet in an open and collaborative way, and leading the world in that effort. We cannot let this happen.

Trump team plans to break up ‘global mothership’ of climate science Much of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s non-climate portfolio will be dispersed, the White House says.

Here's our reporting on the proposed dismantling of the jewel of US atmospheric science, @ncar-ucar.bsky.social.

The plan is to break NCAR apart and disburse some parts to other locations (like the research aircraft fleet) and eliminate others.

www.nature.com/articles/d41...

🧪 #AGU25 #climate

Trump administration to dismantle key climate research center Russell Vought, who directs the White House Office of Management and Budget, announced plans to split up the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, citing concerns about “clima...

I know many of you who follow me don't work in climate science, but this is the biggest story in climate right now. Breaking up NCAR makes us all less safe and is another act of self-harm that will take decades to recover from.

I came to the US over 10 years ago for a postdoc at NCAR. It changed my life and supercharged my ability to do science. NCAR's unique community nature makes it a global node in atmospheric and climate research. It's really not possible to overstate its value for science and society.

NCAR is a unique & valuable asset - far more than a climate model, or observations, or technology, or training ground, or gathering space. It covers weather, space weather, data, climate, paleo-climate, and everything in-between. It's building is an icon, but it's iconic status goes far beyond that.

Intent to restructure critical weather science infrastructure The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) announced today that the agency is reviewing the structure of the research and observational capabilities operated by the NSF National Center for Atmospheric...

Uhhhh, yikes ☹️ www.nsf.gov/news/intent-...

Threatening to dismantle NCAR, our premier weather and climate research institute (apparently) because Colorado refuses to pardon someone accused of tampering with voting machines is a sad example of our current kakistocracy in action… www.nytimes.com/2025...