Tong Zhao

China's Reaction to U.S. Military Action in Venezuela Margaret Myers and Tong Zhao join Jesse Marks to discuss how recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela are shifting the strategic landscape between Washington and Beijing.

🇨🇳🇻🇪🇺🇸 How is China reacting to Venezuela?

Listen to how recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela are shifting the strategic landscape between Washington and Beijing.

▶️ Watch: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/chinas-reaction-to-u-s-military-action-in-venezuela/

The U.S. Venezuela Operation Will Harden China’s Security Calculation Especially on Taiwan.

As the fallout continues from President Trump’s attack on Venezuela, Beijing is keeping tabs on the U.S. military. The emerging conclusion is that the U.S. may be a “paper tiger,” says @tongzhao.bsky.social, “but its fangs can still bite.”

More in Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

China's 2026 nuclear plans China is estimated to have more than 600 nuclear warheads, a figure the U.S. predicts will exceed 1,000 by the end of the decade.

China—the world's third-largest nuclear power, behind Russia and the United States by number of warheads—is unlikely to increase transparency around its buildup in the new year, following this year's unveiling of new weapons, @tongzhao.bsky.social told Newsweek.
www.newsweek.com/chinas-2026-...

The U.S. Venezuela Operation Will Harden China’s Security Calculation Especially on Taiwan.

U.S. norm-breaking will shape illiberal rivals’ behavior.

For China, the Venezuela attack is likely to harden Beijing’s security calculus.

My latest analysis for @carnegieendowment.org:

carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

It was a real pleasure chatting with
@pranayrvaddi.bsky.social on the Strategic Simplicity Podcast and reflecting on China's recent white paper on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation.

Miniaturization and Modernization: The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons At a time when the U.S.-China relationship is deteriorating, strategic stability between the two nations is also eroding, raising the risk of an arms race and nuclear escalation of a future conflict. ...

Next Tuesday, Dec. 9, join us at @carnegieendowment.org for a discussion with Dr. Hui Zhang on his newly released book "The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons", moderated by @tongzhao.bsky.social

carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...

China’s next 5-year plan aims to narrow nuclear gap with US and Russia: analysts Beijing’s proposed national blueprint links strategic forces with the global balance for the first time.

China's next five-year plan promises to "strengthen and enlarge strategic deterrent capabilities," reaffirming China's commitment to continuing qualitative and quantitative growth of its nuclear arsenal.
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...

Curious about what China’s nuclear force is evolving into? Using Chinese primary sources, my latest publication from
@nbr.org maps out what China is building and the goals it intends to serve. 🧵 www.nbr.org/publication/...

Dialogue of the Deaf w/ Tong Zhao As Beijing's position toward the U.S. hardens, the U.S.' position towards itself fractures further

Tyler Quillen talks with @tongzhao.bsky.social at @carnegieendowment.org about the consequences of America's illiberal turn for China and its neighbors

open.substack.com/pub/uscnpm/p...

Preventing an Era of Nuclear Anarchy: Nuclear Proliferation and American Security Following decades of mostly successful efforts to combat the spread of nuclear weapons, multiple global trends are reviving the possibility of a world with more nuclear-armed states. These development...

Nuclear risks are rising as old safeguards fray. A new high-level bipartisan Task Force convened by @carnegieendowment.org, @nti.org, & @belfercenter.bsky.social lays out a blueprint to prevent an era of nuclear anarchy.
@carnegienpp.bsky.social
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Grateful to our Communications team colleagues for making this video possible.

YouTube video by Carnegie Explains China’s Nuclear Arsenal Is Growing Faster Than Ever

China’s latest parade showcased unprecedented nuclear power. In this @carnegieendowment.org short video, I explain why the buildup isn’t serving China’s goals—and how Beijing can help strengthen a rules-based nuclear order.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaf3...

China should not fuel an arms race, says a close watcher of its nuclear policy Its interests would be better served if it led on crafting nuclear rules, argues Tong Zhao

Beijing’s stunning display of nuclear power at its recent military parade is striking. In @economist.com, I explain why China should resist fueling arms races and instead champion a rules-based nuclear order.
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

The Politics Behind China’s Nuclear Shift - War on the Rocks

Enjoyed discussing the politics behind China's nuclear policy shift with @nktpnd.bsky.social on @warontherocks.bsky.social' Thinking the Unthinkable podcast:
warontherocks.com/episode/thin...

Is China Changing Its Nuclear Launch Strategy? Certain behaviors suggest it may be preparing to adopt one of the Cold War’s most dangerous policies.

Important piece from @tongzhao.bsky.social warning that China may be considering a launch-under-attack policy for its nuclear forces, mirroring the US and Russia foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/c...

Many thanks to Megan DuBois for her excellent editing!

Is China Changing Its Nuclear Launch Strategy? Certain behaviors suggest it may be preparing to adopt one of the Cold War’s most dangerous policies.

Happy to share my @foreignpolicy.com analysis on China's potential adoption of launch-under-attack policy for its nuclear forces, including the security impact of this major policy shift and potential measures to mitigate risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/c...

70 years of the Russell-Einstein manifesto | The Royal Society YouTube video by The Royal Society

See also this commemoration of the manifesto, recorded Tuesday at the Royal Society in London, and featuring remarks from Dr. Hussain Al-Shahristani, president of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, and a conversation with Steve Fetter, Andriy Baklitskiy and @tongzhao.bsky.social.

The Israel-Iran War and the Crisis of the Nonproliferation Regime: Views from the Asia-Pacific | Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

www.apln.network/analysis/the...

Thanks @apln.network for the opportunity to make a few comments on the implications of Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for nonproliferation and regional security in and beyond the Middle East, including in the Asia Pacific region. Link below.

Cutting Nuclear Nonproliferation Funding Will Undermine U.S. National Security It’ll also make deterrence even more challenging.

Slashing nuclear nonproliferation funding, as the Trump administration has requested, would be, for the U.S., “a recipe for national security failure.”

@coreyah.bsky.social on why, in her latest for Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ Riles Nuclear-Armed Foes The countries claim the missile-defense project is driving a dangerous new arms race.

Nuclear expert @tongzhao.bsky.social says Russia and China see space-based interceptors "as indistinguishable from offensive weapons, arguing that a better-protected United States might be emboldened to pursue more aggressive military actions" www.wsj.com/world/trumps...

Does President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” risk igniting a new arms race? To Russia, China, and North Korea – the three greatest nuclear threats to the U.S. – it does.

📰 @tongzhao.bsky.social‬ weighed in for @wsj.com: www.wsj.com/world/trumps...

Will China Escalate? Despite short-term stability, the risk of military crisis is rising.

As China sees a new era of "strategic stalemate" with the US, what does it mean for bilateral security—arms racing, crisis stability, and conflict risk?
My analysis in @foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

🎙️Listen to the full #TheArmsPoseur podcast from IISS with Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @tongzhao.bsky.social & Dr @fionacunningham.bsky.social as they discuss the history and current trajectory of #China's nuclear arsenal. 🎧🔗 iiss.org/podcasts/arm...

BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants The potential of BRICS members and partner countries to fulfill their individual aspirations via BRICS hinges on what vision of the future of world order ultimately wins out within BRICS.

How does China envision the expansion of #BRICS? What's its strategy for enhancing engagement with Global South countries through BRICS to bolster its economic, security, & normative power?

My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org's new report on BRICS expansion:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Shift in logic:

Biden admin: Ukraine's fight defends a rules-based order—vital to US; Ukraine soldiers & lives lost are priceless contributions to a joint struggle.

Trump admin: Ukraine's fight is irrelevant to US interests & its sacrifice is a waste; Ukr owes US for one-sided aid & generosity.

Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security The message from Chinese officials has become increasingly clear: the United States and China should first stabilize their political relationship before taking on nuclear issues.

10/ “Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security” by @tongzhao.bsky.social from the Nuclear Policy Program

https://buff.ly/4iMKXqd

Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan | CSIS Events Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham will discuss a new CSIS report Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan with Kari ...

Look forward to this @csis.org online discussion:

Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan

December 13, 2024, 1:30 – 2:30 pm EST
www.csis.org/events/confr...