Salt

You're likely right. I'd need to give it a better look, I'm honestly not giving it the proper rigor it deserves. Although, I think one can solve the closed form for the recurrence relation and get a better estimate from there.

Update: With way more datapoints, a linear fit no longer is appropiate, and polynomial of the 3rd degree suits the predictions way better. Under said 3rd degree polynomial fit, we'd expect even odds at around 8 days! In streams of 8 hours at 100% efficiency, it might take 24 days!!

A bar graph plot for the chances of throwing 10 coins in row (vertical axis) against the number of attempts allowed (horizontal axis). It resembles an concave curve increasing in height but angled downwards.

Update: Increasing the sample size, we get a curve!! I guess a linear fit came too early to call it. With a polynomial fit of the 3rd degree, we'd expect a 100% chance of success at around 44597 attempts, which is roughly similar to the mode you found on your simulation!

Thank you very much! Indeed it looks interesting. I haven't revisited college stats so I am very much lost on why it resembles an exponential distribution 🙂 but this is very cool nonetheless! Ty for lending us your processor for a while!!

That's pretty sick! Is it too much to ask for a distribution / histogram? I'm very curious about what shape it might take (I'm putting my bets on it resembling a surf wave 🏄‍♂️)

818 hours* aha

Screenshot of a Twitter post. User explains their results of running their own simulation of throwing the unfair coin 10 times in a row, and makes note of the empirical result of it taking 818 hours on median to beat the game, assuming 1 coin flip a second

Yeah. Someone tried doing that over on Twitter: x.com/confusionm8t...

They came to the conclusion it takes around 818 on median to beat the game, assuming 1 coin toss a second. A beefier simulation could aid in verifying, though, in their own admission.

If the linear trend is to believed, NL might reach a 50% chance of winning the game after around 1772775 attempts. At around 1 attempt a second, it could take around 20 days and a half of straight uninterrumpted attempts. In streams of 8 hours with 100% efficiency, it might take 2 months.

A 2D bar plot. The horizontal axis marks the number of trials and the vertical axis the chances of landing the coin 10 times in a row during those trials. The ticks along the horizontal axis are labeled for each attempt number, starting at 100 and incrementing by a 100 for 1000 times. The ticks along the vertical axis label the chances, starting at 0 and going well above 0.025 mark.

Here's a small python script to compute the chances for landing the 10 coin flips: gist.github.com/suehtemorp/e...

Here's a barplot for the chances at the first 100k attempts, in 1k groups of a 100 attempts. A linear regression fit yields a R squared statistic of around 99.999% (without much rigor)

prezooh! keep your head up 🙂‍↕️🪇 once you get the hang of it (you will!) it's going to be so much fun

It’s a fortune cookie fortune that says “Your heart’s desire is now within reach,” held between Abi’s burgundy acrylic nails

My fortune cookie was scarily accurate last night! 👻 Fortune cookie technology has become SCARILY powerful; we may even be approaching General Cookie Intelligence! We should add fortune cookies to every industry and government service to improve efficiency

patched to work with CMake too!! this superbuild thing is taking off. let's make a little engine next 😝😝

a man with a beard and long blonde hair is holding a sword in a forest . Alt: A man with a beard and long blonde hair is holding a sword in a forest. The camera zooms in and he slowly lets out a small smile and nodding. It's a meme.

ladies and gentlemen. we finally have compiled the DOS media library with a DJGPP'S GCC 12. C++20 oh it feels good to be back #gamedev #msdos #retrogaming

with a borrowed toolchain, im stuck with gcc 4 and no C++. ECS in ANSI C? 🙂👈 this is the worst

attempting to get a superbuild up and running for a DOS toolchain intended for use with classic Allegro. this stuff is so confusing. #heeeeeelp #heeeelpmee
#DOS #gamedev

Man I wish I had trans acquaintances to talk gender questioning with. Reading tumblr blogs and infographics isn't doing it anymore

That frustrating moment when you wanna cook a techbro on a YouTube comment section boasting about how copyright and attribution doesn't matter but the algorithm keeps deleting the response.

They feel so smug about it too. I wanna squeeze a sponge 🧽🙂

The video thumbnail for PMG's original documentary, showing a white, American hand clasping cash in exchange for the labour of a Southeast Asian workforce, represented here as being weighed down by their immense workload.

Back in 2021, PMG reported on the unseen games industry crunch taking place at outsourcing studios in SE Asia.

Since then, the companies we looked at have continued to work on some of the biggest games in the world, without any push to improve the conditions of the artists doing that work. (1/7)

For SoCal friends,

Here is a list of resources for shelter, animal boarding, free items, and distribution hubs. These places can also use donations (e.g., food, water, masks, and blankets). Please consider donating if you can.

For more info, visit Instagram: mutualaidla

Guys, a friend I made in highschool is getting married. And yes, the wedding is in march and I'm going.

He's around 21 as well. I don't even know what to say. HELP

Happy New Year!!! May this one be ours for the taking

I haven’t showered since last year!

OneShot as well.... so tempted to go for that one as well

Fellasss, I've been thinking of getting a game since I haven't gamed much and it's the winter Steam sale.

I'm torn between Outer Wilds, Balatro, Stardew Valley, and one of the Jackbox Party Games. Which game from these or other would you recommend I get?

yea buddy. me too

also! aaa I'm gonna learn to draw eventually. i can't postpone finishing games because of missing art 😔

me but I'm 21 😭😭😭

so i used to noobishly play saxophone in the highschool band, but after some time I'd like to get back into playing some music!!

I've considered saving up for an alto sax or maybe picking up a new instrument entirely 🪇 any oomfies have also dabbled in music?

akdjsh at first I didn't understand the mechanics enough but after northernlion hooking me into it every day and watching markiplier play it i see why it could be sooo addictive. consider !!