Tim Cornelissen

Can't seem to DM you, but I might be able to help out depending on what exactly you are looking for!

Catastrophic events in an uncertain future: A pending $41 trillion bill for businesses and governments to resolve Analysis from Moody’s estimates that in 2050, the global economic impact of physical risk may reach $41.4 trillion, or a 14.5% loss in gross domestic product (GDP). Roughly two-thirds of this economic...

Another cool Moody's piece, that some members of my team worked on! How will physical risk impact GDP and Commercial Real Estate portfolios in the future?
www.moodys.com/web/en/us/in...

Under its broad authority to regulate deceptive behavior affecting commerce, the Federal Trade Commission, @nyulaw.bsky.social legal fellow @erinshortell.bsky.social contends, is in the best position among agencies to regulate carbon credits. www.theregreview.org/2025/09/09/s...

What if a once-in-a-generation hurricane were to hit South Florida?

What are the macroeconomic effects of a major hurricane impacting Florida? Some really cool work our team did in collaboration with our economist colleagues at Moody's. Check out the interactive data story as well as the full whitepaper!
www.moodys.com/web/en/us/in...
www.economy.com/the-macroeco...

I've built a new WF model that shows that the entirety of California will be on fire under RCP8.5 (which year does not seem relevant). My model also shows the Palisades as a high risk area, so it must be a pretty good model...

Brookmont cat bond ETF trades over 150k shares totalling $3.03m, in first day - Artemis.bm The Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF (ILS), saw 150,750 shares traded in its first day listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), resulting in $3.03

The first cat bond ETF was launched not too long ago! So we can see how that works out. www.artemis.bm/news/brookmo...

To make things more confusing, Moody's wildfire model does actually also provide a climate change view to give an estimate of the increase in risk for longer time horizons (say 2050). But that's indeed not what insurers use to assess their risk and set their rates.

They have a former catastrophe modeler on their climate team too!

And you know that some brand consultant made a pretty penny off of it.

AAPUNFOW doesn't have quite same the ring to it like AAL does now, does it?

Map of Hurricane Andrew as part of a simple interactive and mobile friendly set of season maps I've created on a new website.

Project of recent weeks -- raced to get it done for today's start of hurricane season! 157mph.com/annual-maps-... @157mph.com

Insuring tomorrow: 10 emerging risks transforming the industry

Which emerging risks are on people's mind within the insurance industry?
Check out this new data story on 10 emerging risks presented at Moody's Exceedance this week!
www.moodys.com/web/en/us/in...

I feel seen

Yeah it's hard to find anything in QGIS that can't be done (better!) in R now! We'd often use it to explore spatial data but with packages like leaflet that is really easy in R too

"QGIS is the Excel of geospatial analysis" feels like it comes straight out of my brain

I am once again begging the New York Times to stop treating a private company’s marketing materials as anything even remotely approaching a scientific consensus

Which is not to say there’s not a consensus that hazards are getting worse or that it will affect insurance rates

Them and ASML!

I completely agree we should always take a skeptical view of commercial climate risk products AND ALSO acknowledge that it's really freaking hard to correctly take the measure of things we've seen happen either once or never.

I'm puzzled by the primary care doctor being up there across the board. Why would you trust a medical doctor on the topic of climate change? I guess they are just considered an authority figure? I wonder how this splits across ages, because I feel like young people would have less trust in their PCP

Another great post by Bartosz! Definitely also check out his archive, it's full of gems like these. In depth science communication at its best.

To be fair, ASML runs on Matlab! But yeah, one of the biggest regrets of my PhD is writing my ferrroelectric simulator in Matlab and not Python...

Fun little advent challenge! Let's see how far my #rstats skills have come in my two years of use!

One can (naively?) hope that banks can start playing a similar role in getting the word out, now that they are finally starting their climate risk journeys.

This sentence rings especially true:
"Messages from corporate actors with a data-driven perspective on climate change that is presented in terms of damage costs rather than scientific complexities, are more easily digestible and thus effective in moving policymakers and potentially the public. "

Bookkeepers of catastrophes: The overlooked role of reinsurers in climate change debates Global warming had long been discussed as an abstract matter of physics and chemistry. Only in the 1990s did the more tangible costs caused by natural…

From my 'to read' backlog, just read this interesting account of the role of the (re)insurance industry in the climate change discourse. I like how it shows the journey of reinsurers from seeing the first signals of CC, to becoming powerful communicators on CC.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

**New Paper Alert**

Thrilled to finally announce the release of our Part 1 paper that re-evaluates and quantifies (normalizes) historical US hurricane losses. This builds upon previous work by introducing counties affected by the radius of maximum wind.

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

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