Roshan Kishore

For the @htTweets data & political economy team, elections aren't about predicting winners & losers. They are an opportunity to learn & unlearn how we understand our polity & society. This is what makes them great fun. Full story here on HT app n/n

www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi...

What has all of this got to do with AAP's landslide victories in 2015 and 2020? AAP's entry put an end to what was very large political fragmentation (vote share of candidates from No. 3 onwards) in outer ACs. 7/n

This is where we bring in the class factor.
How do we know whether outer ACs (with more migrants) are poorer than the core? Fortunately, Delhi gives ration-card data at the AC level. Higher NFSA beneficiaries per voter in outer ACs 6/n

Which also means outer ACs have seen a larger growth in the number of electors. Once again, the data is clear. Can't make a pre-2008 comparison because of delimitation 5/n

This has a direct bearing on electoral politics. ACs in the city's outer circumference have seen a larger growth in settled area in the last four decades 4/n

An analysis of satellite data shows that most of the increase in settled area has happened in the city's periphery; the core was already settled 3/n

Despite a similar natural growth of population, Delhi has had a higher growth in number of voters than rest of the country in most elections. This means a large number of voters are migrants who eventually settled here 2/n

Once in a while its okay to say we are proud of the work we do. This full-page data package explaining how Delhi's centre of (political) gravity has shifted from its core to the periphery is a fit case.
Done with Abhishek Jha & Nishant Ranjan & produced by Jamie Mullick 1/n

And it’s not just inequality but growth too, which has fallen continuously in the last few decades. Trump should focus on this than the othering game n/n

US’s real problem is the collapse of income growth in the lower half of the population, which is what has hurt the white working class the most 4/n

But that’s largely their educational premium in the US job market 3/n

Naturalized citizens especially Asians have much higher incomes the average white American 2/n

Going after naturalized citizens or their children won’t make America great again 1/n

What should be Manmohan Singh’s economic legacy and how did the 1991 reforms change India?

“Paliwal deserves credit because his account of this history-in-progress is nothing short of an epic equivalent.”

What a way to sign off 2024. Thank you @roshankishore.bsky.social
for such a generous read of #Indiasneareast 🙏🏾

@hurstpublishers.bsky.social
www.hindustantimes.com/books/roshan...

The economic legacy of Dr Manmohan Singh www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/m...

TERMS OF TRADE: Fight for secularism is not about protecting some civilisational value which was stronger in the past than it is today. It is more about building & sustaining a dynamic & nimble consensus essential to hold the socio-economic fabric together

www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/t...

The great Indian political economy drama in six acts www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/t...

One can look at it as a sign of the party’s alienation from the poor peasantry in the state in the post-reform period. The rich peasantry diversified outside agriculture & consolidated behind the NCP. Key lesson? The Congress must rethink class n/n

But it’s humiliating loss this time is a result of a complete collapse in Vidarbha-Marathwada region, the poorest & most rural in the state. This part of the state stood with the Congress even post-Emergency4/n

Congress’s marginalisation in Maharashtra is a process which started since 1990 3/n

Maharashtra is the 17th legislative assembly in India where the congress has less than 10% MLAs (the minimum you need to even claim an LoP). It’s national footprint in assemblies has been falling continuously 2/n

Congress’s Maharashtra collapse should worry the grand old party deeply, we explain here 1/n

TERMS OF TRADE: what do the results in Maharashtra and Jharkhand tell us
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TERMS OF TRADE: If inflation was indeed the main issue in the 2024 elections, then what explains the fact that the Democrats did much better than expected in the 2022 mid-term elections when inflation was much higher?

www.hindustantimes.com/business/ter...

On Nov 16, DSS put contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s PM2.5 on Nov 15 at 37.5%.
On Nov 18, this number was revised down to 21.56%.
One reason, large number of weddings in Delhi. They  assumed that 50 firecrackers were burst at each wedding held in Delhi.

Terms of Trade | Why is the BJP immune from the anger of a K-shaped economic recovery? The best way to answer this question is to develop a framework of voters, consumers and investors in the Indian economy

Debating whether or not Indian economy has had a K-shaped recovery is pointless. The question to ask is why does it not hurt the BJP's political fortunes. This week's Terms of Trade has an answer: a theory of voters, consumers & investors www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/term...

Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo speak to me on 20 years of J-Pal www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/i...

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