Daniel O'Keefe

📢POSTDOC POSITION ANNOUNCEMENT📢

@nourkteily.bsky.social & I are recruiting a postdoc in the #LitowitzCenter for Enlightened Disagreement. We seek research excellence regarding navigating conflict.

Application deadline: Nov. 17.

Salary: ~$80k.

facultyrecruiting.northwestern.edu/apply/MjQzNw==

No worries. You play big :-)

📣New Preprint Alert!

Esther Maassen meticulously simulated the effect of p-hacking and publication bias on effect size & heterogeneity estimates.

💡bad: selective outcome reporting & optional dropping
💡bad: publication bias
💡not so bad: optional stopping/outlier removal

osf.io/preprints/ps...

🧵 Why do facts often change beliefs but not attitudes?

In a new WP with @yamilrvelez.bsky.social and @scottclifford.bsky.social, we caution against interpreting this as rigidity or motivated reasoning. Often, the beliefs *relevant* to people’s attitudes are not what researchers expect.

Media literacy interventions: meta-analytic review of 40 years of research Abstract. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of 160 media literacy interventions from 1983 to 2023, finding overall positive effects. Effects were

I am really pleased to see our meta-analysis of media literacy interventions (160 studies!) has been published in HCR. Unsurprisingly, there is a lot of nuance. One piece of good news is that the interventions work longitudinally.

Free download here:

academic.oup.com/hcr/advance-...

Prior beliefs

results

Just read this lovely experiment on the (null) persuasive effects of "listening" by Erik Santoro, @dbroockman.bsky.social @jkalla.bsky.social and @ronip.bsky.social

www.pnas.org/doi/epub/10....

Left: survey of prior beliefs
Right: Results

It's the persuasive appeal that does the work.

So far persuasion work in polisci has mostly centered on

message -> opinion

(main result imo: messages have small fx in the right direction that don't differ too much by message or person or issue)

with less work on

message -> attention

need to figure out experimental paradigm for attention

I've updated the marketing replication tracker through 2024. So far, 5 out of 45 (11%) of all direct replications of marketing studies (studies published in scientific marketing journals such as Journal of Consumer Research and Journal of Marketing Research). openmkt.org/research/rep...

Please add me--thanks!

“That Looks Hard!”: Effects of Objective and Perceived Textual Complexity on Factual and Structural Political Knowledge Communication of political information is vital for a well-functioning democratic system, and texts are one of the main mediums of politics. Most studies dealing with political text consider how su...

Perhaps of interest:
doi.org/10.1080/1058...
doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
doi.org/10.1207/s153...
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
doi.org/10.1007/s105...
doi.org/10.1080/2374...

Vaccine Hesitancy and Its Epistemic Antecedents: A Meta-Analysis Although much attention has been given to vaccine hesitancy, there is still considerable ambiguity regarding its epistemological antecedents. The current meta-analysis addresses this theoretical an...

🚨New publication out today🚨 led by my former advisee, Emily Andrews, this meta-analysis highlights the importance of trust and conspiracy theories in vaccine hesitancy, and the nuanced role each plays. Read here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Please add me--thanks!

Message-level Claims Require Message-level Data Analyses: Aligning Claims and Evidence in Communication Research Researchers often invoke individual-level correlations (correlations between properties of individuals) as a basis for message-level claims (claims about properties of messages). For example: “Peop...

Now in print (Open Access):
doi.org/10.1080/1931...
Explains a common reasoning mistake in communication research, identifies multiple examples of the mistake, and discusses implications of and remedies for this problem.

Perhaps of interest: doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Using Self-Schema Matching to Recruit Superdiffusers for a Potential Vaccine Word-of-Mouth Promotion Campaign The Boster et al. (2012) superdiffuser model predicts that a health behavior change can be diffused through a social network by recruiting superdiffusers, a type of opinion leader who possesses 3 k...

New Pub:
Mike Kotowski and I wanted to move forward the technology of employing opinion leaders for vaccine promotion campaigns. So we developed a new method of identifying their self-schema and matching campaign recruiting messages to it. Free copies here:

www.tandfonline.com/eprint/SA3AT...

Pessimistic Rumination Predicts Defeat of Presidential Candidates, 1900 to 1984 Published in Psychological Inquiry: An International Journal for the Advancement of Psychological Theory (Vol. 1, No. 1, 1990)

Old, but perhaps of interest:
doi.org/10.1207/s153...

Measuring Exposure and Attention to Media and Communication Valid and reliable measurement of media and communication exposure is crucial for communication science, psychology, political science, sociology, pedagogy, economics, and law, and the practitioners i...

NEW📚Our *free* #openaccess book "Measuring Exposure and Attention to Media and Communication: Solutions to Wicked Problems" is out🚀

A privilege to work w/Peter Neijens, @judith-moeller.bsky.social @theoaraujo.bsky.social.

🙏@ascor.bsky.social for support.
📢Share #CommSky

www.aup.nl/en/book/9789...

Pessimistic Rumination Predicts Defeat of Presidential Candidates, 1900 to 1984 Published in Psychological Inquiry: An International Journal for the Advancement of Psychological Theory (Vol. 1, No. 1, 1990)

Perhaps of interest: doi.org/10.1207/s153...

Do Thank-You Calls Increase Charitable Giving? Expert Forecasts and Field Experimental Evidence (April 2023) - Calling to thank donors is considered a key fundraising strategy in the charitable giving industry. Yet the effectiveness of thank-you calls remains untested. We conduct field experimen...

Not exactly on point but perhaps of interest:
doi.org/10.1257/app....
dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

The Role of a Narrative's Emotional Flow in Promoting Persuasive Outcomes The study of narrative persuasion has increased dramatically in the past decade. Whereas much of this research focuses on story and character involvement, the role of emotion—and emotional flow spe...

I've been thinking about this work as I watch.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Groypers - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groypers

Pessimistic Rumination Predicts Defeat of Presidential Candidates, 1900 to 1984 Published in Psychological Inquiry: An International Journal for the Advancement of Psychological Theory (Vol. 1, No. 1, 1990)

Old--but perhaps of current interest: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Congratulations ICA 2024 Award Winners! - International Communication Association

Humbled. And grateful.
www.icahdq.org/blogpost/152...

Congratulations to @aecoppock.bsky.social whose book, “Persuasion in Parallel,” has won the Robert E. Lane Best Book Award from the APSA Political Psychology Section!  Thanks to Margit Tavits and Josh Gubler for serving on the committee.

BlueSky June!

Many people who have a BlueSky account still prioritize posting, reading, and asking questions on Twitter.

So for the rest of June, I ask you to commit to using BlueSky before the mess called X.

Please retweet and tag people!

1/

Message-level Claims Require Message-level Data Analyses: Aligning Claims and Evidence in Communication Research Researchers often invoke individual-level correlations (correlations between properties of individuals) as a basis for message-level claims (claims about properties of messages). For example: “Peop...

Preprint now online (Open Access) concerning a common reasoning mistake in communication research:
 
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Your medieval self? www.bbc.com/future/artic...

Perhaps of interest: doi.org/10.1037/emo0...

What @aecoppock.bsky.social said.

Abstract: Political campaigns increasingly conduct experiments to learn how to persuade voters. Little research has considered the implications of this trend for elections or democracy. To probe these implications, we analyze a unique archive of 146 advertising experiments conducted by US campaigns in 2018 and 2020 using the platform Swayable. This archive includes 617 advertisements produced by 51 campaigns and tested with over 500,000 respondents. Importantly, we analyze the complete archive, avoiding publication bias. We find small but meaningful variation in the persuasive effects of advertisements. In addition, we find that common theories about what makes advertising persuasive have limited and context-dependent power to predict persuasiveness. These findings indicate that experiments can compound money’s influence in elections: it is difficult to predict ex ante which ads persuade, experiments help campaigns do so, but the gains from these findings principally accrue to campai

Our meta-analysis of 2018-20 ad experiments is now out at APSR!

paper (open-access): doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423001387

Tagging bluesky coauthors @dbroockman.bsky.social, @benmtappin.bsky.social and @jslez.bsky.social

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