Justin Wolfers

"They promised us a very, very different future... That future hasn't arrived and I am frankly angry. I'm angry that these folks won't own up. I'm angry they won't tell the truth and I'm angry that this is a result of a series of absolutely insane policy blunders."

Sometimes all I've got left is sarcasm. And when that runs out, I get serious.

I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of money. But...

...maybe there wasn't much planning?

Not in Australia

Markets are *very* unhappy about developments in Iran.

Line keeps going up.

"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards...

I'm going to call that a jobs recession."

“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.”

That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Drivers lose. Oil industry wins.

"Oil prices are up about 50%. You should expect gas prices to rise about 50%... Gas... about $3 a gallon... you should therefore expect gas to be a bit above $4 a gallon...

So if you get an opportunity to stop by the president's gas station when he's seeing it at $2 a gallon... definitely fill up "

“If you saw an economy teetering on the brink, the only advice I’d give the administration is don’t do anything rash… don’t do anything silly.... I have a feeling that advice may have come a week too late.”

This is how liars lie (and how I call it out).

Thank you for reporting. I appreciate you.

If you love What Next: TBD, join Slate Plus at https://slate.com/youtubeplus? to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. When… Trump’s War With Iran Is Hurting Your Retirement

Podcasting about the economic and financial market consequences of the war with Iran.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgbC...

Seems troubling.

More troubling would be the idea that the Administration might have bombed Iran without expecting this.

No-one actually expects gas prices to rapidly return to normal.

Weak jobs numbers => The Fed is more likely to consider rate cuts, sooner.

"The latest employment report just came out... and this is my worried face."

My advice to the Administration: With the U.S. uncomfortably close to a recession -- and already in a jobs recession -- don't do anything rash that could make things worse.

No-one is happy about the jobs report.

Minor aside: If you calculate the extra decimal places, the unemployment rate this month is 4.44%. So it's really just a hair from being reported as 4.5% instead of 4.4%.

Here's the point to remember about the brutal negative revisions in today's job market report: They aren't saying the labor market showed green shoots that withered. It's saying that there never were any green shoots. They were an illusion.

While employment in health care shrank this month, it continues to account for more than all of the jobs created over the past year.

My brow is furrowed as I type and graph this.

This is not good.

The U.S. economy has lost jobs since "Liberation Day."

The economic story just changed dramatically.

Payrolls fell -92k in Feb. Jan growth was revised down by -4k to +126k. And Dec revisions subtracted -64k to -17k.

Unemployment rate up a tick to 4.4%.

Recession questions are back on the menu

What happens when the U.S. starts a war—and the biggest economic pain lands somewhere else? Financial markets are a real-time forecasting machine: billions of dollars placed on bets about the… Trump, Markets, And “TACO”: Why The Usual Warning Signal May Fail In Iran, Warns Justin Wolfers

Here's what worries me. The U.S. is less oil-dependent than our peers, and so Wall Street has responded far less to the war in Iran than financial markets abroad. When the country calling the shots feels only a small share of the pain, that's a dangerous asymmetry.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfTL...

What happens when the U.S. starts a war—and the biggest economic pain lands somewhere else? Financial markets are a real-time forecasting machine: billions of dollars placed on bets about the… An Asymmetry That Matters: An American War That Hurts Our Allies More, Explains Justin Wolfers

There's an economic asymmetry around the war in Iran that really worries me.

Lemme explain. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfTL...

I just can't tell what's a throwaway line, what's a joke, and what's a policy announcement these days.

Is the President serious about an embargo on Spain?

Could the Iran strikes trigger another 1970s-style stagflation—or is that the wrong mental model? In the first 48 hours after President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury and bombed Iran, the best… What You Need To Know About the Economic Fallout From War with Iran -- from Justin Wolfers

Here's my talking head -- armed with charts, macro models and financial market movements -- trying to help you make sense of the possible economic fallout from the war with Iran.
youtu.be/deeGtvlUtaI