Justin Wolfers

Policy experts examine how executive authority impacts markets, economic stability, and institutional trust at the Principles First Summit 2026. The American Economy: How Unchecked Executive Power Affects the Market| Principles First Summit 2026

I took part in a panel at the recent Principles First summit, and was overjoyed to share the stage with Jessica Riedl and Francis Fukuyama, and the whole thing is available online, if you want to watch.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiUJ...

We need better economics education. #teachecon

Here's the optimist's case: There's a lot the President can do to address affordability.

A “serious and responsible discussion” would start with the data, name the trade-offs, and propose fixes. Magical thinking isn’t a program; it’s an alibi.

"If you compare the United States to every other industrialized country and you rank them from the very best to the very worst, the American stock market comes 21st out of 23."

"Are Americans better off now than they were a year ago?"

If you were worried the Supreme Court tariff decision undermined the Administration's "deals", let me put your mind at rest.

Those "deals" were more reality TV than trade policy: Press conferences, bullet points, and praise, but little substance.

The tell: None were ever signed

"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is that our exports are a better buy for foreign buyers.

Interviewer: "What's your take on how he's framing the economy?"
Me: "It's that he's lying."

On immigration: "I often am asked to speak as an economist. And what we should never lose sight of is that each of us is a moral being. And you, as I, have to decide how we feel about this form of rhetoric."

What happens when political speeches collide with economic data? This clip pulls together the real economic State of the Union using the key statistics that hit your wallet: inflation, jobs, economic… Justin Wolfers: The Real (Economic) State Of The Union

I tuned in to the State of the Union, and saw nothing but a firehose of lies.

If the President won't tell you the state of the economy, I will: Here's an honest assessment of the (economic) state of the union. No reality TV gimmicks, just nerdy numbers.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeKA...

Straight from the racism section of the speech to new ideas for minimizing democracy.

The racism section of this speech is stomach-churning. #SOTU

No member of Congress should trade individual stocks.

If that's what the President just endorsed, I'm with him on this.

Dow 50,000...

But look around, and the real question is why isn't it 60,000?

Dow 50,000!

Also 21st out of 23.

Dow 50,000!

The President boasts of "no tax on tips", but this expires in 2028.
He boasts of "no tax on overtime," but it is taxed, and the break expires in 2028.
He boasts of "no tax on social security," but it is taxed, and his break expires in 2028.

He also passed tax cuts for the rich. They're permanent.

I believe it's now official. Another TACO, as apparently the 15% tariff is going to be enforced as a 10% tariff.

We now are on our fifth tariff regime for the week.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/u...

When I heard this, I drafted a skeet about it, then thought "naaah, there's no way his speechwriters would allow him to contradict himself within one sentence." But they really and truly did.

* can't.

"100% of jobs created under my administration have been in the private sector."
-- President Trump in #SOTU

He forgot to mention which part of the private sector.

You can fact check a firehose of nonsense. These are literally made up numbers. People have given up even expecting the truth any more. #SOTU

Does anyone know what the current tariff rate is that the U.S. is charging on imports?

We have a Presidential proclamation from Friday declaring that a 10% rate went into effective at 12:01am today. Also a Truth Social post upping it to 15% "effective immediately."

WHICH IS IT?

Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to make this happen.

So I don't think anyone knows what tomorrow's tariff rate is.

A simple tariff scoreboard: Consumers pay when prices rise; owners pay when margins fall. If you've got a 401(k), then you're paying either way, and the only question is whether you're doing it at the store, or out of your retirement account.

"There's no easy way for the president to move forward with the rest of his trade war without bringing along Congress... and he can't do that without bringing along the American people."

If retailers raised prices during tariffs, that doesn’t create a liability to each customer—it creates profit (or covers costs). So if or when tariff refunds arrive, the default outcome is: firms recoup, shoppers don’t.

Bottom line: You aren't getting a penny back.

A tariff that expires in 150 days isn’t a long-run industrial policy. Firms invest on multi-year horizons. If the policy is temporary, the investment response will be, too: mostly none.

(This was recorded when the tariff rate was 10%; it's now 15%.)

Apologies, I didn't see your note.