@justinwolfers.bsky.social
Econ professor at Michigan ● Senior fellow, Brookings ● Intro econ textbook author ● Think Like An Economist podcast ● An economist willing to admit that the glass really is half full ● Find me: https://linktr.ee/justinwolfers
Thank you! Let's both report.
Begin your weekend by joining me for a long chat with Molly Jong-Fast about *all this*.
Macroeconomic policy, or soap opera?
Court rules Trump's case against Fed Chair Powell is dead. Tillis says he won't confirm Trump's pick if White House appeals. White House appeals. Current Fed Chair's term ends soon. What next? Tune in for the next season of Fed's Anatomy.
HUGE (and GOOD) news: Federal court has thrown out the President's attempt to throw the Fed Chair in jail.
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms.
I kid you not... The same White House that forgot that invading Iran might lead it to close the Strait of Hormuz, is now arguing (through Peter Navarro) that war with Iran is a good idea because it'll prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.
You can't make deals if everyone knows you reneg on deals.
"You've always got the option of putting that barrel of oil on a tanker and sending it abroad." That option ties US prices to global prices.
"Look at past conflicts and look at what people were saying at a similar point in past conflicts... Every war begins with an assumption it's going to be easy and none of them turn out that way."
When I feel anxious about the world, I use economic logic to understand deeper forces at play. Right now, grappling with causes of war and developing a framework for the road ahead. Sharing my thoughts, in caes they help you, too: www.youtube.com/watch?v=416b...
A pretty great conversation with Ed Elson and @katie0martin.ft.com about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?...
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, an econ lesson, or something else.
It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that framework to better understand our current moment.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=416b...
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, an econ lesson, or something else.
It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that framework to better understand our current moment.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=416b...
Even if the war ends fast, “normal” won’t fully return. Trust and relationships are slow to rebuild, and that shows up as less trade, less cooperation, and more expensive risk management.
This is real life.
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it.
The crack team who brought you the trade war are now in Iran.
"oil prices up 50%... But I still want to emphasize one thing. Yeah, that hurts at the pump. Yeah, it sucks. But you know what's worse? War. And so we shouldn't trivialize the big issues here, which is, you know, we're at war with Iran. Big deal for young American troops. Big deal for the Iranians."
"They promised us a very, very different future... That future hasn't arrived and I am frankly angry. I'm angry that these folks won't own up. I'm angry they won't tell the truth and I'm angry that this is a result of a series of absolutely insane policy blunders."
Sometimes all I've got left is sarcasm. And when that runs out, I get serious.
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of money. But...
...maybe there wasn't much planning?
Not in Australia
Markets are *very* unhappy about developments in Iran.
Line keeps going up.
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards...
I'm going to call that a jobs recession."
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.”
That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Drivers lose. Oil industry wins.
"Oil prices are up about 50%. You should expect gas prices to rise about 50%... Gas... about $3 a gallon... you should therefore expect gas to be a bit above $4 a gallon...
So if you get an opportunity to stop by the president's gas station when he's seeing it at $2 a gallon... definitely fill up "
“If you saw an economy teetering on the brink, the only advice I’d give the administration is don’t do anything rash… don’t do anything silly.... I have a feeling that advice may have come a week too late.”
This is how liars lie (and how I call it out).
Thank you for reporting. I appreciate you.
Podcasting about the economic and financial market consequences of the war with Iran.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgbC...