HA

Eastern European setting stone houses and shiny range rovers driving through cobbled courtyards is such a generic scene in every American “thriller” production that there can actually be just a hotkey command to incorporate it into any script

Came across a remarkable stat in an article - 15,000 private funds were launched in last 5y and more than 40,000 total in the market as of last y. Many of them probably personal playthings, but nonetheless the rapid proliferation is something

Broad credit (CDX) has tightened by 40% since their end of q3 wides last y

You don’t need research papers for these simple items

-Fed cut off the deep left tail of corp defaults when they crossed a line to buy credit in 2020

-Crossed another line in 2023 and told you they wont let “the system” fail for want of liquidity

=> Not worth it chasing ghosts of past mkt regimes

Someone needs to remind him Sons of Anarchy was popular w suburban moms more than three presidential-election cycles ago

This observation holds true also for a lot of senior ppl in positions of power in media and finance

You’d think they would want to be better informed, but they are all seeking comfort food

Summer finally here - beautiful weather

I expect this to happen as well, but depends if it’s a slow bleed over time or some cascading, media hype friendly event where if many entities fail to refi at once, Yellen gets an excuse to find a way to support a taxpayers / fed back-channel assisted refi all in the name of “financial stability”

For context, even during the famous December 2018 collapse and then pivot, credit spreads didn’t blow out past 200 (or 2% over Tsy)

We have already hit near 200 bps twice last year (end June and then Oct) and didn’t get anywhere near there YTD 23 despite stresses in financials (biggest IG sector)

Something is definitely off about him. believable that it’s all not just a troll performance, but he is deeply in bed w some seriously sick line of thinking

Ppl focus on stocks all the time for sentiment, but you have to wonder what the wealth effect from cash sitting and compounding at 4-5% (w reinvestment turned on) will be by the end of this year

First tweet on bluesky - “hello world” :)