Abdo Jabassini

I’m honoured to be among the first recipients of Bassma Kodmani Fellowship from @arabreforminit.bsky.social

My research & stakeholder engagements will focus on security sector reform in Syria & the challenges of integrating ex-rebels into military & security institutions.

bit.ly/43Wh6X7

#Turkey’s manoeuvres in #Syria and #Libya are key chapters in its bold strategy to strengthen its position and secure long-term leverage in the #Mediterranean —but the path is full of challenges.

My latest with @emadbadi.bsky.social for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social

bit.ly/4jaAqVR

I’ve heard of instances where Syrians were surprised to find themselves quoted in reports after what they thought were casual conversations with journalists. A reminder: ethical principles—like informed consent & explaining the purpose & potential use of interviews—are crucial in Syria as elsewhere.

3/ The process will involve a representative from the Ministry of Defence, signalling HTS’s intent to co-opt, rather than confront, pre-existing civilian and military structures in #Daraa.

2/ Local armed factions will begin reorganising, focusing on dismantling or absorbing smaller autonomous groups—through persuasion or coercion—while excluding individuals with criminal records. Efforts will prioritise weapons collection, border security & maintaining local order

🧵 1/ Yesterday, a meeting was held between representatives of armed factions in #Daraa and Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS. Previous tensions were reportedly diffused, with an agreement reached to integrate local factions into the military institution.

4/ For many local stakeholders, unless HTS recognises Daraa’s unique postwar trajectory and adjusts its strategy to engage with the region’s distinctive dynamics and power structures, the likelihood of escalating tensions in southern Syria will continue to rise.

3/ This resistance seems to be fuelled by HTS's wartime history, marked by tense relations with many local armed factions, and its efforts to rebuild its capabilities through covert activities in the border region following the regime's return to #Daraa in 2018.

2/ Meetings indicate agreement on broad principles, such as integration into a military institution. However, many leaders perceive HTS’s approach as a coercive effort to impose its institutional model & cadres, disregarding or failing to co-opt pre-existing structures.

🧵 Challenges to #HTS approach in southern #Syria:

1/ Meetings between Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS and many leaders of armed factions in #Daraa Governorate seem to reveal a broad yet fragile consensus that conceals underlying tensions.

Syrians are closely monitoring every report published and will expose and challenge any narrative that misleads the audience and disrespects the suffering of real victims.

Great investigation by VeSyriaE, exposing CNN’s recent report by Clarissa Ward

t.co/zvnWw8F3Bh

Map shows locations of #Israeli airstrikes in #Daraa and #Quneitra, which targeted military sites and weapons stockpiles.

Israeli forces reportedly conducted an incursion in Quneitra & crossed the disengagement line into the Yarmouk Basin in southwestern Daraa

Thus far, Israel has conducted at lest 10 airstrikes in Daraa and Quneitra provinces, targeting military sites and warehouses.

Israel carried out incursions into Quneitra Province in southern Syria. For Israel, the collapse of the Syrian army & its withdrawal from positions near the border means the breakdown of the 1974 agreement.

Israel is expected to seize the buffer zone & strike weapons warehouses in the region.

Thanks, Reinoud. The local armed factions include those linked to the Central Negotiation Committee. The 8th Brigade has already clashed with military/security forces at checkpoints in eastern Daraa.

A graph illustrating the gains of local armed factions in #Daraa province in southern Syria so far, including their seizure of checkpoints, security apparatus headquarters, military bases, and police stations, with circle size denoting the intensity and number of attacks (ranging from 1 to 5).

A local faction stormed a Syrian military checkpoint near the town of Ghabagheb on the Damascus-Daraa international highway.

The group has seized all weapons and given the soldiers one day to defect, threatening to attack the checkpoint if they refuse to comply.

Local factions in Daraa province gave the police officers at the Jasim city station two options: surrender weapons and stay or leave for military/security sites. They chose the latter.

Multiple defections of members from security apparatuses have reportedly occurred in Daraa province in southern Syria.

Mosques in several localities are actively calling on military and security personnel to abandon their posts and defect.

A follow-up video shows rebels from al-Qalamoun preparing to join ongoing battles against regime forces in Hama.

A circulating video features a group of rebels declaring the reactivation of insurgent operations in al-Qalamoun in Rural Damascus, following coordination with rebel groups in northern Syria.

A detailed visualization of protests and clashes across Daraa province in southern Syria since November 29. At least 11 security personnel have been reportedly killed.

The death toll from the attack on the Air Force Intelligence checkpoint near Khirbet Ghazaleh has risen to 9. Several others were injured.

Local armed groups attacked a state security checkpoint located between Inkhil and Simlin, north of Daraa, killing two security personnel.

In response, the regime shelled Simlin and its surrounding areas with mortar rounds, injuring civilians and prompting displacement from the town.

Local armed groups attacked the Air Force Intelligence checkpoint near Khirbet Ghazaleh in Daraa province, resulting in reported deaths and injuries.

Local gunmen stormed the police station in Dael town in Daraa province and confiscated the police weapons.

Meanwhile, reports circulating indicate that many military officers, along with their families, have left the city of Izraa and headed to Damascus.

Protest in al-Hrak town in eastern Daraa province in support of military operations in north-western Syria, coinciding with flare shells fired by the 52nd Brigade of the Syrian army.

Plans for military operations targeting regime checkpoints in southern Syria are looming.

A statement circulating online warns military and security forces in Daraa province to withdraw or face attacks, urging defections with safety guaranteed.

Members of the state security apparatus Inkhil city in Daraa province in southern Syria opened fire on protestors who had taken to the streets in support of military operations in north-western Syria.

Localized military escalations, rivalries among armed groups, vigilante operations, tribal clashes, and criminal activities are main drivers of violence in postwar southern Syria.

My latest for Fredrich-Ebert-Stiftung

bit.ly/3UA1Gm3