Philip Ebert

Did you control for the date of publication? Maybe back in the days shorter titles where more common and give their age there is more potential for it being cited, while long titles tend to be more recent with less opportunity to be cited?

Hi Sarah (thanks @danielelstein.bsky.social and @bweatherson.bsky.social - I work on rare and severe event forecasting and its communication with a focus on natural hazards (avalanches). Much of it is transferable to landslides, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc. Not sure if that is what you are after…

I guess given the base rate one should not be surprised it is mostly ChatGPT. Their share was over 90% and is now down to 80% with Gemini being the main competitor at 10-15%. I doubt Grok sits higher than 3% and probably much less a year ago. So just wait and see…

DeepL would probably do the job. It’s pretty good as a first take at translating. Got a pro account and can send you a translated pdf.

Title of a talk (joint work with Frank Techel): “Fundamentals of ordinal natural hazard danger level forecast verification” discussing Brunswick’s Lens Model and introducing our own expansion of the lens model to apply to ordinal danger level forecasting.

Looking forward to be participating at a workshop entitled “Forecasting Rare and Severe Events: Behaviour, Verification, and Judgment” at St Andrews organised by Ian Durbach from the Stats Department—wildly interdisciplinary event. This will be fun

Fourteen excellent new papers up at Imprint, including this paper by Anthony Reeves on the moral importance of due process, as well as papers by @neilwwilliams.bsky.social,
@devinsanchezcurry.com,
@frankphilosophy.bsky.social, @andrewyuanlee.bsky.social and many more.

Might be of interest to you @bweatherson.bsky.social

Why Normative Risk Matters for What We Should Do Morally - Erkenntnis When we deliberate about what to do morally, we often run two types of risk. One type of risk results from having incomplete or false information about empirical facts, such as the effectiveness of do...

Great paper by Xintong Wei a former Postdoc on our varieties of risk project on the symmetry thesis in a reason-based normative framework.

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Professional Update: I have decided to accept an offer ('Ruf') from the @unisalzburg.bsky.social starting 02/2026. I’m really 'chuffed’ and grateful having been offered the opportunity to join such a great department and also excited to relocate to this beautiful area of Austria

Had a great three days in Lisbon with great talks at the Commemorating #Frege conference. Huge thanks to the organisers Bruno and Joan who managed to host the event in the beautiful Academy ofScience building. I have to come back.

Two permanent Lecturer posts at Birkbeck (equivalent of Assistant Professor). Area of specialisation is open but with teaching needs in ethics & phil of AI, ethics and poli phil, ancient, gender, continental, engaged. Closing date August 28th, start in Jan 2026 'a significant advantage' #philsky

Problem solved and sense prevailed and we can travel with the dog.

Do I know anyone in Amsterdam who could take our dog for 21 days. No joke. Somewhat desperate situation.

Finished with my talk at the General Assembly of the European Avalanche Warning Services. Time to address my swim-work balance at Hotel Seggauberg in Styria…

Congratulations, Aidan, that’s a great accomplishment!

Could you add me too. Thanks.

Is anyone using LeChat and how does it compare to ChatGPT?

It be amazing if the EU and individual European countries would invest now more into education. It is a very opportune time.

For philosophers and interdisciplinary researchers working on #risk, this CfP for a collection with the journal Synthese might be of interest: link.springer.com/collections/...

Though this is up there too: ‘Insisting on balanced trade with every trading partner individually is bonkers—like suggesting that Texas would be richer if it insisted on balanced trade with each of the other 49 states, or asking a company to ensure that each of its suppliers is also a customer’

A good quote from the economist: ‘officials set the tariffs using a formula that takes America’s bilateral trade deficit as a share of goods imported from each country and halves it—which is almost as random as taxing you on the number of vowels in your name.’

Agreed I think frequency is more suitable at the end of the percentage chance scale (close to 0 or 100) — you too easily round it

I also want to give a huge shout out to reviewer 2 -- the most amazingly valuable, charitable and extensive set of comments I have ever received. Thank you whoever you are!

Perhaps some folks will find it interesting, in particular our more general finding that end users give generally lower probability assessments in a frequency format compared to a percentage chance format.

End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale: A study of avalanche probability judgments in Scotland We investigate Scottish end users' and professional forecasters' risk perception in relation to the 5-point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical estimates of the probability of trig....

Really excited to see this paper published (and in such a cool journal). The research was “triggered” by a conversation with avalanche forecasters and evolved into a cool interdisciplinary project. #avalanche #riskcommunication

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

A great and challenging paper by @dariomortini.bsky.social identifying a “folk conceptual gap between the subject matter of these experimental studies and the conceptual repertoire we can reasonably expect lay people to possess" — a (supposed) gap that applies to my earlier work. go.shr.lc/41naOx1

Just went to a talk about REF2029. It was suggested that REF 2029 is an exercise that presents itself as channeling the spirit of Ted Lasso but in fact is just a form of Hunger Games.

Not far off in my view.