Valentin Amrhein

Helsinki goes a full year without a traffic death A city traffic engineer credits the success to lower speed limits and smarter design.

Quelle: yle.fi/a/74-20174831

Great to see our new paper "Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change" out in print today in @natclimate.nature.com, which builds on our landscaping project on climate-health attribution a couple of years ago, funded by @wellcometrust.bsky.social

For Trump and his allies, renewable energy is akin to the new Cracker Barrel logo: something they oppose largely because it’s different and seems to be forced upon them. But unlike the logo, there’s no going back on wind and solar.
www.pbump.net/o/why-trump-...

Could AI slow science? Confronting the production-progress paradox

Could AI slow science? Confronting the production-progress paradox

#AI #GenAI #ChatGPT #Claude #Science #WCRI2026 #WCRI

www.aisnakeoil.com/p/could-ai-s...

YouTube video by Sabine Hossenfelder Scientific research has big problems, and it's getting worse

Sabine Hossenfelder: "Scientific research is broken. This has been going on for decades, and the situation is not improving. It's getting worse."
youtu.be/9yPy3DeMUyI?...

Wow.

Research findings with p-values marginally less than 0.05 attract 60 to 110% higher Altmetric scores than those with p-values marginally above 0.05.

p-hacking means more popular attention!

p-hacking FTW!

EARLY VIEW in IBIS

Breeding habitat preferences and niche partitioning of insectivorous songbirds in Alpine grasslands | onlinelibrary.wiley....

Yann Rime, Pius Korner, Barbara Helm, Valentin Amrhein, Christoph M. Meier | #ornithology 🪶

In a new Perspective article, Josh Morgan discusses how progress in cell biology is hindered by significance testing and the need for a shift to effect size estimation. rupress.org/jcb/article/...

#Technology #Reproducibility #CellCycle #CellDivision #Statistics

Extreme Greenland melting event right now: thawing over 80% of the surface. Seen before only once in the record melt summer 2012.

See more at @polarportal.bsky.social!

Time for your yearly reminder that “We need less research, better research, and research done for the right reasons”. #OTD 1948 Douglas Altman b (d 3 June 2018) “One of the most influential medical statisticians of the past 50 years” he led reforms in medical research reliability & reporting. 1/3

... The data generator thus incorporates without distinction all influences on the final data, such as selection bias and measurement errors—and it is the only object directly addressed by conventional interval estimates, p values, and other “superpopulation” inferences."

"An example would be predicting the patterns a survey (the data generator) will produce in the face of low response rates and the errors in the survey measurements, as opposed to predicting the actual distributions in the surveyed population. ...

Some Ways to Make Regression Modeling More Helpful Than Misleading Click on the article title to read more.

"Conventional regression analysis provides inferences about
the data generator, not the assumed target population"

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Science’s reform movement should have seen Trump’s call for ‘gold standard science’ coming, critics say Efforts to improve the rigor of research may have unwittingly handed the administration a way to attack science

"Bak-Coleman ‬and others say the reformers should have seen that their claims and concerns could be weaponized by antiscience movements, and done more to prevent that." I often write about sci reform & I'm genuinely curious, how do you "prevent that"?
www.science.org/content/arti...

Science-wide replication crisis?

"The executive order should be a wake-up call for science reformers to communicate more carefully."

Today nearly all new car sales in Norway are electric. That’s true even in Finnmark, the northernmost region in Europe’s northernmost country.

For us who live in the city, the most immediate benefit is cleaner air.

www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solu...

Copy: archive.ph/sHcnW

Scientific discovery in a model-centric framework: Reproducibility, innovation, and epistemic diversity Consistent confirmations obtained independently of each other lend credibility to a scientific result. We refer to results satisfying this consistency as reproducible and assume that reproducibility i...

I could recommend these four papers of ours for starters:
1. journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
2. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
3. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
4. philsci-archive.pitt.edu/24738/

Also see

philarchive.org/archive/FEEWRI by @ufeest.bsky.social

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... by @vamrhein.bsky.social

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... by @danhicks.bsky.social

link.springer.com/article/10.1... by @markrubin.bsky.social

link.springer.com/article/10.1... by Sam Fletcher

There is no "science-wide replication crisis" because every word in that phrase carries unfounded assumptions. 🧵

1. There is no evidence that progress has generally stalled in the sciences. Also, no one has actually tried to estimate replicability across fields.

I have become a bird spy, and I blame @bengoldfarb.bsky.social. www.lastwordonnothing.com/2025/05/30/h...

Male ruff at his lek in standing position showing ornamental ruff an ear tufts.

Opera buffa? No, actually ruff male is dead serious in attracting females flying by to land at his lek. #waders #ornithology

Reproducibility failures are essential to scientific inquiry | PNAS Reproducibility failures are essential to scientific inquiry

“Reproducibility failures are essential to scientific inquiry.”

YouTube video by Bruce Springsteen Land of Hope and Dreams

youtu.be/6ZHWIYHlXOs?...

How Miami Schools Are Leading 100,000 Students Into the A.I. Future

I understand why some feel uncomfortable with AI being used by students (I do). However, for better or worse, the tech is here & now baked into everything we do. We have no choice but to embrace it www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/t... #artificialintelligence #learning #teaching #students #highschool

🧪 The peer review system is truly broken! 😵‍💫

An editor's perspective:
–Ever increasing number of manuscripts submitted for publication
–Authors want quick editorial decisions + fast peer review
–Reviewers are "too busy" to review
–Everyone wants to submit papers but no one wants to review

1/2

A close-up of a sewing needle made of animal bone.

Things used in everyday life are the real archaeological treasures! This sewing #needle was made from animal bone some 13,000 years ago! Some designs are timeless, achieving a perfect balance of form and function from their inception. Length: 5.6cm.

📷 LMW Stuttgart 🏺

#archaeology

Three common inferential errors when investigating context dependence in ecology. Consider a test of context dependence in its most basic form: a 2 × 2 factorial experiment, measuring an ecological response Y, to the crossing of factors X and Z, each with two levels. The analyst fits a statistical model with an interaction term to the data: Y ~ X + Z + X × Z, to test for and quantify context dependence. Three inferential errors are possible when the measurement scale or symmetry of the interaction are overlooked: detection and magnitude (Type D), sign (Type S) and misidentification of underlying processes (Type A).

Since we are still talking about interactions, I worked with some ecologists a couple of years ago on measurement scale, interactions and interpretation issues. I think some problems arise from failure to distinguish prediction from inference, a chronic problem in ecology imo doi.org/10.1111/brv....

Author-Paid PublicationFees Corrupt Science and Should Be Abandoned Thomas J. H Morgan & Paul E. Smaldino

As grant money starts drying up, it's more important than ever not to waste it on paying publishers' open access "article processing fees" when we can host PDFs for free. Tom Morgan and I wrote a paper on this, forthcoming at Science and Public Policy. Accepted draft here: osf.io/preprints/os...

A variation of my 2nd reference: why you should not focus on "significant" vs. "non-significant": peerj.com/articles/3544/

What Is It Like to Be a Crow? | Psychology Today New research delves into the subjective experiences of crows, birds that are often admired for their intelligence.

Fascinating and fun little article from Psychology Today. I’ve fed a little flock kibble for years and they’re fascinating animals.

www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/scie....