Gilles Moec

Face à la guerre commerciale, que faire ?  | Le Grand Continent Mardi du Grand Continent à l'École normale supérieure, avec Benjamin Bürbaumer, Federico Fubini, Dorothée Rouzet et Ludovic Subran.

Face à la guerre commerciale, que faire ?

Notre prochain mardi à @normalesup.bsky.social réunira @benjaminburbaumer.bsky.social, Federico Fubini, @gillesmoec.bsky.social, Dorothée Rouzet, @ludovicsubran.bsky.social

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A hybrid model for global trade can navigate a fragmented world How global trade is shifting from full globalization to regional “clubs” and hybrid models, requiring businesses to adapt to a more fragmented landscape.

Omnidirectional globalisation gave way to a “clubification” of the world economy. But even these clubs are unstable. There is space for a loose alliance of countries still complying with the “old” multilateral rules of the game beside the clubs. Full (short)paper here www.weforum.org/stories/2025...

Electrify Europe

Scaling up electrification should be part of the EU’s growth strategy, with a double dividend: lowering CO2 emissions and reducing the income transfer to the rest of the world which importing fossil fuel entails- notably to the US. 4/4. See the full weekly note here: www.axa-im.com/investment-i...

The experience of trade war 1.0 suggests that even when the impact of retaliatory tariffs was locally tangible in the US in terms of employment, the electorate does not shift away from protectionist offers 3/4

When looking a how the EU should respond to a trade war with the US, a proper growth strategy may prove more fruitful than engaging in tariff escalation, which would ultimately be more costly to Europe given its reliance on international trade 2/4

Scott Bessent’s column in The Economist in October made it plain his main bone of contention with Europe is its weak demand, which makes it hard to build a mutually beneficial transatlantic trade relationship - a common view among mainstream US economists 1/4

Paying Tax Cuts with Carbon

Investors have to accept that if D.Trump does not deliver all the growth-dampening/inflation-rising aspects of his platform, he cannot give them all the fiscal sugar rush they are expecting. Find my full weekly paper here www.axa-im.co.uk/investment-i.... 2/2

Rolling back IRA and hiking trade tariffs is not purely ideologically motivated. D.Trump’s tax cuts program is unlikely to go through a more traditionally Republican Senate without these savings/income boost 1/2

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