Joshua Krasna

As Trump and Saudi prince heat up ties, Israel normalization left out in the cold MBS notched important gains in Washington, rehabilitating Riyadh after it was sidelined by Israel and Qatar and likely stiffening the kingdom's price for joining the Abraham Accords

Good piece:
As Trump and Saudi prince heat up ties, Israel normalization left out in the cold

www.timesofisrael.com/as-trump-and...

Figures shows brain drain spiked in 2023-2024 as well-educated fled overhaul, war More doctors, engineers, and high earners moved away during 20-month period, costing state some NIS 1.5 billion in lost taxes, Tel Aviv U. economists find, warning trend may be ongoing

Figures shows brain drain spiked in 2023-2024 as well-educated fled overhaul, war

www.timesofisrael.com/figures-show...

Video: drive.google.com/file/d/1zn9D...

Israel and the Gulf States: Some Things Change, Some Stay the Same - JISS Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit to Oman, the first overt visit in over twenty years by an Israeli prime minister to an Arab country that does not maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, is extreme...

Went over paper of mine in '18 about Israeli relations with Gulf. Pretty proud of how much I got right (though also got quite a bit wrong). One point I mentioned then which is still strong is that Israel insistence on formal full dipl relations can hold back progress
jiss.org.il/en/krasna-is...

The Forum for Regional Cooperation and our 7 partners held a great conference at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy. Summed up 1/2 year's intensive work in 6 working groups of researchers from 13 states, on aspects of Abraham Accords after 5 years. Keep eyes peeled for pubs, and more events!

Happy National Day to all my Emirati friends.

Red Sea premiums to stay high despite Houthi ceasefire Insurance premiums for vessels operating in the Red Sea are expected to remain elevated despite Houthi rebels declaring a ceasefire

www.agbi.com/logistics/20...

My latest. Hope you enjoy it.
dayan.org/content/rela...

Netanyahu, coalition heads hold 11th-hour talks to avert early elections Ultra-Orthodox leadership said to take second look at compromise, as fight over conscription threatens to topple government

Yet again, our P.M. will only be willing to be interviewed for a foreign news outlet, in English. He has quite literally been unwilling to be interviewed in an independent Israeli news outlet -not Israel's version of AAN - since 2021!

www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-in...

Not a nothing Burger, but not much, considering expectations. Most significant would be Arab country normalizing, next would be Muslim country normalizing: A non-Arab Muslim country that already has relations is pretty far down on the list. Sort of like this surprising document I saw last month...

Note: and that is high historically for the US. Only 73.6% of voting age population were registered to vote in 2024. So 47% of voting age Americans actually voted in an election widely perceived as one of the most significant in modern history.

Railways and Realignments: Charting the Gulf’s Inclusive Path into the IMEC - ORF Middle East The Gulf’s expanding rail network could redefine IMEC, turning regional cooperation into the backbone of India-Middle East-Europe connectivity.

Interesting paper by bright young scholar. Notes IMEC implementation assumes Israel-Saudi normalization, which may not be in the cards for a while. In my view, the wide embrace of new Syrian regime is also a threat to Israel's central role in conceived regional corridors. orfme.org/expert-speak...

this is the most successful a CIA officer has been at toppling a government in years.

Debt, Decree, and Development: Kuwait’s Unnoticed Transitions - Foreign Policy Research Institute In recent decades, the Gulf states, namely Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, have adopted a distinct economic and political model that

New article by my talented FPRI intern, Brandon Fey of Gettsyburg College!
www.fpri.org/article/2025...

Wary of Gaza instability, Arab states balk at troop deployment, financing As Gaza’s ceasefire enters its next phase, Washington’s postwar plan faces growing regional skepticism.

Very interesting, makes sense, that tempers expectations that things are going to shape up soon. This is what happens when you spend two years not planning.

www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

40 years forward, it doesn't take into account that by then gas may be irrelevant). But it's not surprising that these come up specifically when there is a whiff of elections, and when some Israelis are extremely suspicious of Egypt. 3/3

over what the correct level of exports is to ensure Israel's gas supply at a reasonable price decades forward ... and concern that Chevron has too much control in the Israeli energy sector (The reason I say semi-reasonable is that when the finance ministry talks about possible problems .../2

Part of the problem is the Israeli government has little say in how the private companies manage the resource except when it comes to the large infrastructure decisions. And that Chevron is really very powerful. So there is a semi legitimate argument in Israel ... /1

US energy secretary cancels visit over Israeli counterpart’s refusal to approve Egypt gas deal * * *

A lot of domestic political posturing in performative delay to sign the deal, which Minister himself ballyhooed when signed. B ase is not sure about Egypt (potential leverage?), or about exporting gas rather than holding on to it. Potential for tension w US.

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

This is kind of exactly what Putin did to get around his term limits before he changed the constitution.

So for all the Trump-whisperers and Trump-splainers and pro-Bibi spinners, lets take the man at his own words: time.com/7327689/trum...

You know, unimportant things like bombing iran, leak... This they can keep secret. More complete destruction than at Fordow

You know things are utterly FUBAR in the US when @bellingcat.com is doing satellite imagery analysis of the White House.

So he is a liberal Jew of color ("the farthest thing from a Nazi")?

Netanyahu thanks Hanegbi after firing him as national security adviser, replaced by Gil Reich * * *

Almost last of the national security ldrshp of 7/10 is gone (Head of Mossad is still around - the least responsible for failure vis-a-vis Hamas, and the most responsible for success in Lebanon and Iran). The only one still around, is "head of the fish"- Bibi. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

My social media community: I am looking for a senior practitioner in private sector/corporate intelligence who can give a 60-90 minute Zoom lecture on private sector inte in my NYU graduate course on intelligence in November. Please reach out to me if you have suggestions.

Netanyahu Says He Has Won the War. Can He Win the Peace? The leader who has long played a hawk in Israeli politics now confronts the challenge of steering the country to the other side of a peace deal.

Quoted a lot here.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Full text of Trump’s Knesset speech: You’ve won. You can’t beat the world. It’s time for peace US president tells Netanyahu, regarding Gaza war and new deal: 'It was getting bad, heated... You're gonna be remembered for this far more than if you kept this thing going, going, going; kill, kill, ...

I won't comment. I just urge anyone interested in foreign policy and Middle East politics, to read through this whole thing and not skip anything. This is the most powerful man in the world, and the one who is trying to bring order to the Middle East. share.google/Lm4ttn2aQ6w2...

Witkoff and Kushner met directly with Hamas leaders last week to seal deal – report Envoys said to have met with senior Hamas official Khalil al-Khaya in Sharm el-Sheikh with Trump's approval, told him hostages 'more of a liability than an asset'

But there are still supporters of Bibi who present this as a one-sided Israeli victory...
Witkoff and Kushner met directly with Hamas leaders last week to seal deal - report

www.timesofisrael.com/witkoff-and-...