Aaron Stein

American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe There are ample reasons for the United States to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.

@aaronstein1.bsky.social and I wrote for @fpri.bsky.social about everyone's favorite once-and-future GLCM, the Tomahawk, and its potential redeployment to Europe: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe There are ample reasons for the United States to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.

I teamed up w/ @fpri.bsky.social fellow @slair.bsky.social to write about one of our favorite missiles :: American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

$3.2 Million in Grants to Reduce Nuclear Dangers Awarded by Carnegie Corporation of New York | Carnegie Corporation of New York Selected through a national call for proposals, seven grantees will explore the implications of emerging and disruptive technologies on nuclear risks

Very pleased to announce that @fpri.bsky.social will be teaming up with/ @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social & @slair.bsky.social for a 2-year Carnegie Corps funded project. We will be working directly with commercial space on a roadmap to strengthen space security

www.carnegie.org/news/article...

The Arctic is fast becoming a new stage for geopolitical competition, and America is underprepared.#BehindTheFront buff.ly/bTXkM9h

It is truly an eyebrow raising moment in history when you have a Turkish ruler -- who loves Ottoman iconography -- championing a British-run Palestinian enclave in the 2025 AD.

Can the United States afford to give away some of its most advanced undersea assets while trying to outpace China’s military expansion? Find out in #BehindTheFront buff.ly/CJ1pza5

Big announcement for @fpri.bsky.social :: FPRI Appoints Shihoko Goto as Vice President of Programs

www.fpri.org/news/2025/10...

By Air and by Sea: PRC Coercion of Taiwan from Trump I to Trump II buff.ly/bVW1xFD

The reason Rosatom is the ONLY firm building in Turkey is b/c Rosatom is an entity of the Russian government, subsidized, and willing to take a loss (and even at that they are trying to sell stakes to capital raise to offset losses).

The limitation on US investment in the Turkish nuclear sector is the BOO model. Not a lack of interest historically from Westinghouse et al. It is simply too capital intensive for private entities to finance a reactor based on a fixed price of kWh purchase agreement over 20+ years.

I'll just add: It is not at all odd to use a foreign engine in your prototype, or an engine not designed for the jet. The F110 isn't a bottleneck to Kaan, per se. So its largely irrelevant IMHO.

I wasn't making it up:

US won't sell F110 w/out the F-16 and cannot sell F-110 to SSB w/out CAATSA being resolved. Can't resolve CAATSA w/out S-400 compromise. Tr also cannot "rejoin" the F-35 consortium. It can purchase F-35 but only w/ compromise on S-400. www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-...

The Return of Subic Bay Subic Bay is back in American planning.

The always excellent @salisbot.bsky.social for @fpri.bsky.social :: The Return of Subic Bay open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

More from us @fpri.bsky.social on the future of CCA

Turkey, US in talks on nuclear plant projects, Turkish official says Turkey is holding talks with the United States on the construction of large-scale nuclear power plants and small modular reactors (SMR), a senior Turkish Energy Ministry official said on Tuesday.

This will be about SMRs, a discussion dating back to the Biden years. www.reuters.com/world/turkey...

123 Agreements for Peaceful Cooperation 123 Agreements facilitate nuclear cooperation agreement for significant transfers of nuclear material, equipment, or components.

The US and Turkey already have a nuclear agreement --> www.energy.gov/nnsa/123-agr...

Follow FPRI's Insights Substack for updates on events, analysis, podcasts, and more! buff.ly/jprOu8N

This is why F16 talks were paused until F-35 is resolved. The entire bilateral relationship is frozen in 2019. Nothing has changed.

F16 was paused (on the request of Ankara) because RTE wants the F-35. He wants the F-35 for regional prestige and to keep up with/ Greece/Israel and b/c of lost cash on the contract abrogation stemming from S400. Best case is Tr compromises on S-400 and can "buy" the F35. But cannot also afford F16

Turkey may drop US F-16 purchase in favour of acquiring jet engines Ankara could buy parts instead of new aircraft in bid to accelerate fifth-generation Kaan warplane project

US won't sell F110 w/out the F-16 and cannot sell F-110 to SSB w/out CAATSA being resolved. Can't resolve CAATSA w/out S-400 compromise. Tr also cannot "rejoin" the F-35 consortium. It can purchase F-35 but only w/ compromise on S-400. www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-...

We are quite proud of this @fpri.bsky.social

Mystery drones seen over three US air bases in East Anglia The United States Air Force says it is unclear if the "small unmanned aerial systems" were hostile.

And overflight of US/UK airbases: www.bbc.com/news/article...

Unidentified drones seen over US military base, industrial site in Germany Unidentified drones have been sighted flying over the US military's Ramstein Air Base in Germany and facilities belonging to German arms maker Rheinmetall, German magazine Der Speigel reported on Frid...

Here is a similar instance in Germany, where drones overflew Rheimettal and Ramstein: www.france24.com/en/europe/20...

I'll just add that airport sightings are often fraught, with mixed reporting. The US has a single database. Don't know about the EU. But "large drones" need not be anything outside of the personal hobby class.

Good example is what happened in both Germany and in the UK at Lakenheath.

I mean that is the story of the Cold War. People should familiarize themselves with how many times the two sides did shoot the other down. Mostly USSR shooting down US/NATO kit.

Small Drones, Big Problems: Managing the Unmanned Threat to the Homeland - Foreign Policy Research Institute “There is perhaps no better example of the rapidly evolving strategic environment than the emergence of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) as a threat to

The US is hamstrung in its response b/c of competing authorities, the potential danger to civilians, and even Article IV constitutional protections (jamming a drone is considered an illegal wiretapping in certain instances). I imagine EU has similar issues; www.fpri.org/article/2025...

We @fpri.bsky.social just finished a large study on drone incursions in the US. Most are accidents. Yet, proliferation of UAS has created an exploitable environment for malign actors seeking to conduct close target reconnaissance, or potentially even kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure.

That was different context. I think comparing NATO Air Policing mission in countries bordering Russia w/ the extreme deficits EU nations face in defense vs a Su-24 shoot down in Syria w/ mixed outcomes is just apples to oranges and extreme fallacy.

The Russians and Americans would fight a lot over Syria independent of anything Turkey was doing. 2017 was a particularly feisty year. Many near misses.

No they got more aggressive because Turkey shot down their jet.