Aaron Stein

I believe

@mchorowitz.bsky.social … man looks good in purple and gold doesn’t he. Not that eye sore green

The 1982 live version of the chain too

It’s I’m so afraid on the Dance; not the studio version.

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Iran’s Pathway to the Bomb Aaron and Jeffrey finally deconflict their schedules to talk about the outcome of the Israeli-Iranian war, Iran’s pathway back to the bomb, and why [...]

The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I finally sat down to discuss the "12 day war" and Iran's pathway back to the Bomb :: www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

FCAS isn’t really feasible and the delivery timeline is too slow. I wouldn’t be surprised if a French only 6th gen emerged, which is where you could see a plus up of the F-35 buy, even if the politics are toxic and the desire to buy more American isn’t there.

A mess

🇨🇦

Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

bsky.app/profile/nktp...

The idea of the Islamic Republic, however, is shattered and destroyed. The regime has never been weaker. And it’s for that reason I’m concerned about sneak out.

If Iran retains its stockpile of 60% U-235 + intact centrifuge facilities + retains options to deeply bury future sites & also sharply limits IAEA access, this is a serious blunder & will set regional security back considerably. JCPOA was a far great assurance against this outcome. I’m concerned

Easy Jet seems beneath you.

LIVE SOON: US-Turkey ties in a changing region with Aaron Stein Starting Jun 23 at 9:00 AM EDT

🎙️Live webcast today:

As the Iran-Israel war deepens, we'll discuss US-Turkey ties in a changing region with FPRI Pres. @aaronstein1.bsky.social.

Audience questions welcome.

Join us at 0900 EDT / 1300 UTC / 1600 TRT:
open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Of course the Navy does this too

5th gen/4th gen USAF train every day to do LO escort … makes me ask questions about regional access and operations given where USAF assets were stacking up

I assume the debate now taking place in the White House is whether or not Iran is close to collapsing and if there is now an opportunity to shape far broader US goals, rather than keep it narrow and focus only on a nuclear deal.

My basic assumption is Trump wants to avoid direct involvement and instead seek to use the threat of direct involvement to shape nuclear outcomes -- zero enrichment. However, it's been clear from day 1 Israel's goals are far broader: regime change. So these disparate goals will loom large

Trump looks and feels lost on Iran, I believe, because the Israelis upended an agreement he had mandated his envoy conclude quickly. He’s now grasping for a way back to the deal he himself wanted, but which Israel has demonstrated it has no interest in acquiescing to as a fait accompli.

Israel’s establishment of air superiority over parts of Iran so fast in this conflict is truly impressive … and enables both interdiction strikes and rapid iteration on the unfolding air campaign.

Gentle reminder air and missile
defense is part of a system consisting of interdiction strikes. dispersal of aircraft and personnel, hardened shelters, civil defense, and then point or mid course defense with different interceptors.

Israel Strikes Iran Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest new from Iran, where Israel has been launching strike on leadership, nuclear, and missile targets. Support [...]

Silver lining to the Israel-Iran War: new Arms Control Wonk podcast episodes.

@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social & @aaronstein1.bsky.social

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I got together to discuss Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities

armscontrolwonk.libsyn.com/israel-strik...

Tarpacks like what we’re seeing don’t fall from the sky … this is an iterative off the shelf plan of unknown duration, hence why definitive conclusions are unclear right now. Avoid the hot take

I won’t hot take, but do think there was a viable pathway back to a jcpoa light and may have sped up Israeli off the shelf plans that I’m certain have been ready to go for half a decade plus

For people already eligible to work in the US, great job opp with @fpri.bsky.social to work on #Russia #CentralAsia and #Caucasus.

For those just waking up 👇

Employment Opportunities - FPRI Thank you for your interest in employment at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Want to come work with me @fpri.bsky.social on all things Eurasia? Apply today!

www.fpri.org/about/employ...

FPRI Insights | Now on Substack buff.ly/HLhxflx

I’m continuing my book tour on the East Coast next month in Philadelphia. @aaronstein1.bsky.social and I will be chatting on June 24 (with books for sale). Details & registration below. Hope to see you there. www.fpri.org/event/2025/t...