graystoke

I appreciate the offer ❤️

I’m back in, just ‘labeled’

…as “rebel scum” i hope

they have been annoying since elmo walked thru the door

x account suspended for posting groksplanation ‘not sedition’ — in response to this outrage, markets tanked

want to express my gratitude for solidarity, the academy, my family who always believed..

in my ❤️, I know we will still hit the great filter, but at least i will do so feeling vindicated

such as?

pretentious, insufferable, naive liberals—who lose sight of bigger picture because they care too much about injustice— are infinitely better choice vs dumpster-fire nazis who intentionally push world into the abyss

be less pretentious insufferable & naive. no tantrums, let’s just win midterms.

red state boomers unlikely to vote dem over premiums—but 40m SNAP recipients who went hungry this weekend know Dems went to bat for them.

2m Gov workers will get paid. SNAP & VA are now off table. Dems strengthened hand.

if GoP reneges on ACA, right back to shut down by Feb, w/midterms 8 mos away

add to this: what many liberals want isn’t something dem party can give in its current state

strategically, all that matters is midterms, which Dems will win—assuming they don’t do something stupid

when you account for SNAP, VA benefits & gov workers getting paid, this was the right long-game move

the matrix loves satire

“Employees are using AI to create low-effort, passable looking work that creates more work for coworkers” to the tune of $9m per year per 10k employees

S&P500 index co’s employ 31m so that works out to a -$28B annual productivity loss for the U.S.

t.co/tLqk13Fa4O

>50% of population meme-bouncing in self-curated echo chambers

while some of them w/obscene wealth undermine & upend truth seeking democracies

and autocrats game reality to feed simulacrum w/ spectacle

not great for a society w ability to destroy itself

read Jacobsen & see how easy it starts

DJT is dangerous AF, but each POTUS since Eisenhower has been unforgivingly reckless.

ashes isn’t just the legacy of the CIA, U.S. NatSec keeps ‘operating’ aka f*king around as it has for the last 80 yrs and we all will find out

the wrong hallucination gets loose and the great filter stops being just a theory

the matrix sure loves a good plot

lulu 🤔

man am i exhausted with all the stupid

they’ll speculate and theorize but no one on Wall Street or in financial journalism really know why the market is behaving this way

Graystoke on X: "@edzitron just wrote a missive on the AI bubble here: https://t.co/43X1ODLpah I then asked ChatGPT and perplexity to assess the analysis and tell me if they agreed or disagreed and why. they ended up agreeing, but oddly, only after I copied the post and uploaded it as a pdf. https://t.co/YGSusFsZGu" / X @edzitron just wrote a missive on the AI bubble here: https://t.co/43X1ODLpah I then asked ChatGPT and perplexity to assess the analysis and tell me if they agreed or disagreed and why. they ended up agreeing, but oddly, only after I copied the post and uploaded it as a pdf. https://t.co/YGSusFsZGu

woof^100

x.com/graystokev2/...

saw 6 plates +bar —and first thought was holy god 45 lbs x7= 315 lbs

so…215 means the bouncy plates are 28 lbs?

routinely fell behind double digits nearly every game = not good.

fwiw, doubt it had much to do w/ Kat. (i) Bridges pending free agency looms (he’s unhappy) (ii) TT failed to develop a bench during regular season and was freestyling vs pacers (iii) what tier 1 free agents refuse to play for TT? 🤔

tldr

me: “official” Murph: 200 pushups & 2 miles +100 pull-ups +300 squats *while wearing 20 lb weighted vest* (first two maybe but the last two? 🤮)

my 60 yr old neighbor: ima run CA to NY—92 b2b 30 milers— while towing a 80 lbs stroller.

we are not the same.
www.instagram.com/runmarkrun20...

satellites were already vulnerable amigo. swfound.org/counterspace/

that said, golden dome is a pipe dream; won’t mitigate nuclear threat

solving: (i) hypersonic ICBMs (ii) out-of-atmosphere flight (iii) MIRVs similar to assuming AGI & QC are real (both fantasies would need to be realized 1st)

“In an environment where costs are rising not only from tariffs but also from shortages, the Fed could initially exacerbate cost pressures by lowering rates without relieving stress on the economy.”

Fed Confronts Lose-Lose Scenario Amid Haphazard Tariff Rollout The central bank is preparing for difficult judgments and emerging divisions regarding when to cut interest rates. Its two-day policy meeting is this week.

www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

did you read nikileaks’ latest?

there’s no way for the Fed to win right now

it all changed the moment he yipped.

since then, markets all in that he finds a way to off ramp entirely, ignoring the increasing bluster from him / Lutnick / Navarro that contradict thesis ie “tariffs here to stay”

His lies about CN negotiations are a bigger tell, confirming they want an out

-university funding =layoffs
-uncertainty of 250k-1m fed workers
-travel cratering
-DoD contracts frozen
-farmers hurt 2x: loss of labor & loss of China market
-small & medium biz could not rip and replace supply chains facing existential risk
-reversal of U.S. exceptionalism … still tbd

grim.

(“resurrection” at SS used to take weeks; w/DOGE chaos & staff cuts, no ETA, but being categorized as “dead” means loss of income, insurance, bank acts, credit)

^^that’s 2-3% of US pop in crisis

-port & shipping vol down
-co’s pulling ‘25 guides
- fedgov chaos eg USAID= agro + ngo loss; NHS etc

hard data trails.

-in this case, biz & consumers front ran tariffs, keeping q1 retail+imports high but pulling from future sales
-soft data cratering eg fed survey
-4-9m student loan debtors getting penalties, credit scores hit & wages attached
-4m seniors classified as dead, zeroing credit scores

Michael Clayton!
(Top 5 for me.)

solid:
Devil’s Advocate
Nightcrawler
Proof of life

a man in a suit is talking into a microphone and the words tokingheads are above him ALT: a man in a suit is talking into a microphone and the words tokingheads are above him

if 2% ends up being a trend,$12T in tech-only valuation expansion since ‘22 would be left looking for a new justification to replace expectations

no idea how they reset

(how many will announce robotaxi and autonomous robot initiatives? )