Jacob Hacker

6/ The key is organized efforts focused on getting and keeping the unpopular parts of the bill -- especially the Medicaid cuts -- on the agenda and mobilizing voters against them. While this will be harder today than in 2017-18, our survey suggests voters will be VERY receptive.

5/ And big unpopular policies like those cuts can break through -- even without going into effect. Think the failed ACA repeal and replace effort in 2017, which devastated Republicans in 2018. Our survey shows Senators who voted for this bill are vulnerable:

4/ This is consistent with a larger problem: the voters who need to be mobilized are generally less attentive to politics, and Republicans have proved much more adept than Democrats at dominating the kinds of media that reach less attentive voters. Even so, the Medicaid cuts have gotten attention!

3/ Now for the bad news: most voters know surprisingly little about the bill. They've heard about "no tax on tips" and "no tax on overtime"--small provisions relative to the big tax cuts for the rich (and not very helpful to most working folks).

2/ This is particularly true of Republicans--who go from 54% support of the bill to 61% opposition when they are shown how it will change the average after-tax income of households in the top 1% vs. bottom 20% of the income distribution.

Americans informed about the distributional effects of Republicans’ tax and budget bill overwhelmingly oppose it Republicans’ tax and budget bill would, if enacted, be the most regressive U.S. tax and budget law in at least the past four decades.

Republicans' hugely unpopular bill is law; will they pay the electoral price for it they should? My research with @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social for @equitablegrowth.bsky.social has good news: voters informed about the bill's effects overwhelmingly oppose it. equitablegrowth.org/americans-in...

Ordinary Republicans hate Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill"—once they know what it does Solid support turns to strong opposition, a new Yale study shows.

This megabill GOP lawmakers are trying to shove through polls very poorly as is. And when Yale's @jacobhacker.bsky.social & ‪Patrick Sullivan showed folks how the combined tax and spending cuts affect family finances, BOY did they hate it. Even Republicans thought it stunk! Via @motherjones.com

Sorry, @Patrick-sullivan.bsky.social also (not surprisingly) pointed this out!

I said he should do my graphics in the future; now I’m thinking he should also do all my TV appearances!

@justinwolfers.bsky.social discussing how unbelievably unpopular the Big Beautiful Bill becomes among REPUBLICANS when you show them how much it takes from ordinary Americans to pad the pockets of the rich, based on the survey @basicmountain.bsky.social and I did. Grateful he’s spreading the word!

Republicans recoil when they learn about the the reserve-Robin Hood effects of their own party's signature policy bill. Honestly, @basicmountain.bsky.social and I were gobsmacked by how large these effects were in our survey experiment. Also, @justinwolfers.bsky.social should create all our figures!

Opinion | How Awful Is the Republican Megabill? Here Are Four of the Worst Parts.

How Awful Is the Republican Megabill? Here Are Four of the Worst Parts.
(@jacobhacker.bsky.social‬ and @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social, New York Times-unlocked)
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/o...

I don’t typically post much, but I’m excited to share a guest essay co-authored with @jacobhacker.bsky.social which was published today in the @nytimes.com, as well as two reports we just published at the @equitablegrowth.bsky.social on Republican’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”

Opinion | The Four Ugliest Points About the Big Beautiful Bill

"It would shift more resources up the income ladder than any bill passed since scorekeepers started keeping track."

In this opinion piece, @jacobhacker.bsky.social and @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social highlight four most regressive aspects of the 'Big Beautiful Bill.'

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/o...

A map of the United States showing the CORE Score for each county, colored on a scale from 0 to 10, with 0 being red and 10 being blue.

It's the economy, stupid. Right? A new tool, now at Yale, seeks to rethink how we measure economic success: bit.ly/44fqeon @jacobhacker.bsky.social

Day 2 of "The Promises and challenges of Governance in Blue Trifectas" starts at noon ET today. Day 1 was revelatory, and today we have an amazing group of experts, advocates, and policymakers discussing housing affordability and decarbonization. Sign up below! 👇

Title of the convening with an image of a donkey superimposed over maps of Massachusetts and California

Really excited about this online convening May 19-20 to better understand the contemporary challenges and opportunities of Democratic governance in blue trifectas. Important for housing, climate, inflation, and so much more -- especially today! Register: t.co/Pm4bIJHn1O

How the economic and political geography of the United States fuels right-wing populism—and what the Democratic Party can do about it The shifting coalitional bases of America’s two major parties and how they are related to political-economic geography.

How the economic and political geography of the United States fuels right-wing populism—and what the Democratic Party can do about it…with Paul Pierson… via @equitablegrowth.bsky.social equitablegrowth.org/how-the-econ...

So grateful to be joining a truly amazing set of fellow fellows at the American Academy in Berlin (@americanacademy.bsky.social)--including @oonahathaway.bsky.social.

@cape-team.bsky.social is doubly represented with @chloethurston.bsky.social joining, too! www.americanacademy.de/announcing-t...

Pamelists cont'd: @profschleich.bsky.social @annemariegray.bsky.social @katenrg.bsky.social Collon Kennedy @vickibeen.bsky.social @agerney.bsky.social @samtricketts.bsky.social @willtoor.bsky.social Dave Weiskopf Lara R Skinner

Presented by BESI & the American Political Economy eXchange @ispsyale.bsky.social
Organizers: Paul Pierson @jacobhacker.bsky.social @samtrachtman.bsky.social @cselmendorf.bsky.social Libby Murphy

Title of the convening with an image of a donkey superimposed over maps of Massachusetts and California

Really excited about this online convening May 19-20 to better understand the contemporary challenges and opportunities of Democratic governance in blue trifectas. Important for housing, climate, inflation, and so much more -- especially today! Register: t.co/Pm4bIJHn1O

The event will showcase speakers, including @jamiemccallum.bsky.social @adamdean.bsky.social @jacobhacker.bsky.social, along with moderators @jerusalem.bsky.social and Jia Lynn Yang, with more to come!

🚨 Also feat. former Sen. Sherrod Brown as a keynote speaker

RSVP ➡️ web.cvent.com/event/a88d72...

How do we reduce the appeal of right-wing populism in the U.S. through economic policy? Such a privilege to be part of this important effort tackling this fundamental question!

Once again credit to Patrick Sullivan (and Drake)

This is what the American Political Economy eXchange (APEX) at Yale ISPS is all about!

Shared credit with my amazing postdoc Patrick Sullivan, who is much more meme-savvy than me.