Patrick Sullivan

Americans informed about the distributional effects of Republicans’ tax and budget bill overwhelmingly oppose it Republicans’ tax and budget bill would, if enacted, be the most regressive U.S. tax and budget law in at least the past four decades.

Republicans' hugely unpopular bill is law; will they pay the electoral price for it they should? My research with @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social for @equitablegrowth.bsky.social has good news: voters informed about the bill's effects overwhelmingly oppose it. equitablegrowth.org/americans-in...

Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: 2025 APE Annual Research Conference. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting. The 2025 APE Annual Research Conference will be held on Zoom from July 28 to 30 (Monday to Wednesday) from 12:00 to 2:30 pm ET each day.

Join us for the 5th Research Conference on the American Political Economy, July 28-30 on zoom, 12-2:30pm ET, to discuss cutting-edge APE research!
Register here: yale.zoom.us/meeting/regi... or check out the program (www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/annua...) featuring@adambonica.bsky.social

Equitable Growth responds to passage of the federal budget bill The federal budget bill dramatically exacerbates inequality by sending more than 50 percent of its tax benefits to the top 10 percent of U.S. households

Just days after President Trump signed his federal budget bill into law, EG is responding, highlighting why this is the most regressive piece of tax/budget legislation to be passed in recent memory.

Read our full statement below. ⬇️ equitablegrowth.org/press/equita...

The Danger of the Not-So-Beautiful Bill Today, I was asked by Newsweek to comment on the adverse impact of the not-so-beautiful bill to dismantle America’s safety net.

Today, I was asked by Newsweek to comment on the dangerous implications of the BBB's slash to Medicaid. I had a whole lot to say. Since I know only a small share of it will wind up in the article, I'm including here the entirety of what I wrote today.
open.substack.com/pub/miranday...

Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It Survey results show that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is broadly unpopular—overwhelmingly so after respondents learned of its regressive distributional effects.

7/ Maybe that’s part of the reason why the bill is so unpopular? The more people know about it, the more they hate it, per EG collaborators @jacobhacker.bsky.social & @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social. equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...

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Legitimately feel sick. We are hours away from the largest cuts to low-income people in history. People’s lives will be ruined. It is so unfair. It’s unfair to be born into a system that allows this level of poverty in the first place and it’s evil to rip away aid from the needy. Hard to watch this.

But more importantly, they should vote "NO" on this horrendous and cruel piece of legislation because it's the right thing to do...

The Electoral Consequences of Roll Call Voting: Health Care and the 2018 Election - Political Behavior For years, Republicans in Congress promised to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act. The results of the 2016 elections put them in position to take action on the seminal domestic policy achiev...

Republican members of Congress should take note

Republicans who voted to "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act in 2017 were more likely to lose reelection than their co-partisans who voted "No"

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It Survey results show that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is broadly unpopular—overwhelmingly so after respondents learned of its regressive distributional effects.

You can read more about this in a soon-to-be updated Working Paper we published @equitablegrowth.bsky.social

equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...

Moreover, majorities of all groups (Democrats, Independents, EVEN Republicans) who learned about distributional effects of the bill said they would be LESS likely for their senator in the future if they were to vote YES on the budget bill

Even Republicans who learned about the regressivity of the bill became overwhelmingly opposed

61 percent of Republicans in this group opposed the bill, with less than one-quarter supporting

But among those who learned about how regressive the bill is, opposition increased drastically, to 78 percent

In fact, opposition outnumbered support by a ratio of 7 to 1!

@jacobhacker.bsky.social and I found similar results in a recent survey we conducted, examining Americans' attitudes towards the GOP's budget bill

Among those who were asked directly for their opinions, opposition already outpaced support by nearly 20 percentage points

Analysis: The many ugly polls on Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ | CNN Politics President Donald Trump isn’t asking Congress to do much these days. In fact, it often seems like he’d rather he didn’t have to bother with the legislative branch at all.

Trying to stay cautiously optimistic that we will see a few "profiles in courage" in the House today in the form of "NO" votes on the most regressive tax and budget bill in living memory

It's cruel, it will harm vulnerable Americans, and the public absolutely HATES it

www.cnn.com/2025/06/20/p...

You know what’s agonizing?
Not being able to get medical attention when you’re sick because you got dropped from Medicaid.
Rationing meds because you can’t afford it without insurance.
Realizing you don’t have enough food for you and your family because your SNAP benefits were reduced.
You own this.

NEW: The Senate version of One Big Beautiful Bill is one big ugly transfer of wealth from low-income families to the rich.

Americans struggling to get by will pay more for groceries & health care so the highest income families can get big tax cuts. This isn’t shared sacrifice.

Medicaid cuts will harm rural Republican communities most Trump’s budget will actively harm the health and incomes of rural communities and Republican voters, well beyond those who themselves are enrolled in Medicaid.

As Republicans expedite their efforts to rip health coverage from millions of Americans, re-upping my writing on the not so-beautiful bill. First, my piece in The Hill w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social on harms to rural (conservative) communities (ex: hospital closures). thehill.com/opinion/heal...

As @brendanvduke.bsky.social says, this isn’t a case of shared sacrifice. The bill isn’t asking everyone to tighten their belts a little in the name of deficit reduction. Instead it’s asking the poorest to tighten their belts so the richest can loosen their belts.

That is profoundly unfair.

Senate Republicans Can Still Abandon Disastrous, Rushed Reconciliation Bill | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities The Senate is barreling toward a vote on a still-not-finished bill that would take away health coverage and food assistance from millions of people who need it, raise families’ costs, and make a large...

The Senate is racing to pass “a stand alone in history—a reconciliation bill that drives up poverty and the number of people uninsured, while increasing deficits and debt.”
@centeronbudget.bsky.social
How many GOP Senators who will vote for it think this is a good idea?
www.cbpp.org/press/statem...

“Legislation speaks louder than words.”
Excellent analysis by @jacobhacker.bsky.social
& @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social
of the bill before the Senate today that is “the most regressive, least populist policy package in memory.” It’s terrible on tax equity, heath care & hunger.

1 in 5 Americans depends on Medicaid to access health care.
1 in 7 Americans depends on SNAP for their food security.

These cuts— all to funnel tax cuts to the wealthiest— will cause needless suffering & death, not just among the poor: when rural hospitals close (which they will), everyone loses.

Congressional Republicans’ budget bill is the most regressive in at least 40 years Jacob Hacker and Patrick Sullivan shine a light on the hidden regressive elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

And if you would like to learn more about what is exactly in the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill," what makes it so regressive, and why it could even get worse, check out our recent policy report, also published at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social

equitablegrowth.org/congressiona...

Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It Survey results show that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is broadly unpopular—overwhelmingly so after respondents learned of its regressive distributional effects.

In addition to the linked article above, you can also read more on the survey in a Working Paper we published with the great folks at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social

equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...

Whereas Republican support for the the bill in our control condition strongly outnumbered opposition, opposition dominates support in our treatment group - with Republicans opposing the GOP budget bill by a nearly 3:1 margin.

We also examined how the effects of this information varied by respondents' political affiliation.

Opposition increased for all groups (Dems, Independents, Reps) who received information on the bill's regressivity.

However, the effects of this information were largest among Republicans

That is an opposition to support ratio of 7:1!

Amongst respondents in our study that were asked directly for their opinions (our "control" group), opposition already outnumbered support (47 to 28).

But for those who learned about how regressive the bill was (our "treatment" group), opposition increased to 78% (and support dropped to 11%).

Ordinary Republicans hate Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill"—once they know what it does Solid support turns to strong opposition, a new Yale study shows.

Great to speak with @michaelmechanic.bsky.social the other day regarding a recent study @jacobhacker.bsky.social and I conducted examining attitudes toward the GOP's historically regressive budget bill.

First, the bill is already VERY unpopular

www.motherjones.com/politics/202...

"the parts of the bill that are most expensive -- things like the big deductions for business income -- almost no-one knows about. The parts that are cheap and don't really change people's lives... a lot of people know about."

Ordinary Republicans hate Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill"—once they know what it does Solid support turns to strong opposition, a new Yale study shows.

This megabill GOP lawmakers are trying to shove through polls very poorly as is. And when Yale's @jacobhacker.bsky.social & ‪Patrick Sullivan showed folks how the combined tax and spending cuts affect family finances, BOY did they hate it. Even Republicans thought it stunk! Via @motherjones.com