Danny Colligan

Oh, sure, and there's less flattering potential explanations for it too. Maybe some factional politics in longtermist/EA circles or something.

I could think of a number of reasons for that. Maybe some kind of deal with the publisher of the volume it's supposed to be included in. Or perhaps they're trying to move away from longtermist rhetoric (it's basically absent in the book) and pitch their ideas in wonky instead of futuristic terms

Thank you. I may actually be a bit more tolerant of long-range projections. Obviously a lot of things may happen between now and then (whenever then is) to invalidate their projection, but I don't think it's necessarily an illegitimate exercise.

Tagging those who might be interested in such things: @philipncohen.com @karenguzzo.bsky.social @amandajean.bsky.social @danahull.bsky.social @lesja.bsky.social

Why Should We Worry About Declining Birth Rates? Declining birth rates around the world may pose new challenges for humanity. A new book on the topic by Elon Musk–funded economists indulges in questionable philosophy and sci-fi speculation that fail...

In my review of Spears and Geruso's book "After the Spike" for Jacobin, I attempt to confront what I consider the core of their argument, which is why declining global population would be undesirable, and I find their arguments unpersuasive.

jacobin.com/2025/07/demo...

Their demographic projections are probably the least weird part of the book. I have a critical review which should be appearing soon.

Were eighteenth century Prussian peasants oppressed by their noble landlords? My article in Central European History argues, against the past half century of scholarship, that they were due to a biased judicial system, frequent beatings, and much else:

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

“Natalcon” and the Contradictions of the Pronatalist Right Last month’s gathering of pronatalists in Austin, Texas, revealed a right-wing milieu riven by internal contradictions — and without a plausible plan to significantly increase birth rates.

My latest article in Jacobin addresses the phenomenon of the "pronatalist" mileau. The pronatalists face a choice: they either can pursue their stated objectives by adopting a political program of welfare state expansion, or remain a self-defeating movement.

jacobin.com/2025/04/nata...

The criticisms of Engels' writing on the Peasants' War usually (see: Roper's book) have more to do with objections to class analysis tout court or the factors that Engels emphasizes as a result of that perspective. It's a solid historical essay.

The Momentous Class Struggle of the German Peasants’ War This year marks the 500th anniversary of the German Peasants’ War, the largest European uprising before the French Revolution, in which peasants seized upon the radical implications of Martin Luther’s...

My review of Lyndal Roper's new book on the German Peasants' War (on its 500 year anniversary), Summer of Fire and Blood

jacobin.com/2025/03/germ...

Aging Populations Don’t Need to Mean Lower Living Standards The bright minds at McKinsey & Co. are arguing that declining birth rates mean that people need to work more hours for more years and maybe give up retirement altogether. No thanks.

My latest for Jacobin: the New York Times and McKinsey say that aging populations will inevitably lead to lower living standards for ordinary people. But it's an attempt to scare people into accepting attacks on their own economic interests.

jacobin.com/2025/02/mcki...

How to Think About Falling Birth Rates The relevance of declining birth rates to left-wing concerns, like welfare-state sustainability, is more complex than generally acknowledged. The real reason for the Left to support pro-family policie...

My latest for Jacobin: Elon Musk and other capitalists often bemoan falling American birth rates. Do we have good reasons for sharing their concerns? Find out below.

jacobin.com/2025/01/fall...

A Close Reading of Luigi Mangione’s Self-Help Library A look at the UnitedHealthcare CEO shooter’s social media accounts points to what Americans are inclined to turn to when their government fails to give them sufficient options.

One could also say Mangione took the logic of self-help to its most extreme conclusion, eschewing systemic change in favor of a DIY murder complete with a 3D-printed gun.

Please add me; Central Brooklyn DSA

The Lost World of the European Peasant A new book, Remembering Peasants, takes a close look at Europe’s vanished peasantry. Mixing history, personal memoir, and anthropology, it is a vivid reminder of an experience that has only recently d...

Hello, new followers. Please enjoy my recent writing on European peasants, etc.:

jacobin.com/2024/10/euro...

If you don't want to wait until February, there's the Blickle book from decades ago in English (and other edited collections: Scribner/Benecke, Bak, Scott...)

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