@drjenndowd.bsky.social
Prof of Demography & Population Health @oxforddemsci.bsky.social | Mortality, Epidemiology, Infections/Immunity, Biosocial science, COVID-19. | Science Communicator 🇺🇸 in 🇬🇧. Substack: https://jenndowd.substack.com
2000-2019, but we have discussed whether we should shorten that window (at least for sensitivity). @jschoeley.com @ridhikashyap.bsky.social @polizzan.bsky.social
The age groups were too coarse for us to do the necessary calculations. Same for Canada. We may add these regions though based on their official reported statistics. github.com/jschoeley/e0...
bsky.app/profile/jsch...
I know, it is a shame—Availability of data in the STMF/HMD as we needed it… @jschoeley.com may recall in more detail.
Great to to hear!… do pass along any questions/thoughts if so inclined. Naturally, we still have many questions as well, & hope other researchers will pick up on some of these threads.
Thanks so much!
I'm not so happy to hear about those 1970s birth cohorts though...
"Recent cohorts born since 1970 exhibit increasing mortality in cardiovascular disease, cancer, and external causes compared to their predecessors, implying continuation of poor mortality trends as they age."
So excited to see this fantastic cohort take on US mortality trends in @pnas.org, with some amazing Lexis diagrams that I may print out and frame for my wall. Great work from @leahrabrams.bsky.social @octaviobramajo.bsky.social @alysonvanraalte.bsky.social 👏👏
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... #demography
A pattern that surprised me when I first heard about it (from @ruben.the100.ci): in high fertility contexts, a large share of kids is born to older mothers -- it takes time to have lots of kids!
Not sure how I feel about "very late fertility (ages 35+)" 😭
www.niussp.org/fertility-an...
I know, right? 🎯
While John Snow is often credited with founding modern epidemiology, William Farr built the machinery that allowed it to scale.
Working at the General Register Office in London, Farr developed one of the world’s first systems for routine mortality surveillance, standardised causes of death.
8/ A pleasure to work with a dream team of colleagues on this @jschoeley.com @ridhikashyap.bsky.social @polizzan.bsky.social @haohao-lei.bsky.social, Hanna Jaadla, & Jose Manuel Aburto.
@oxforddemsci.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
7/ Our findings suggest that COVID-19 may not be a short-lived shock, but a multi-year disruption w/ lasting implications for population health. #mortality #demography #covid @oxpop.bsky.social @leverhulme.ac.uk @erc.europa.eu
6/ The US had the largest 5-year life expectancy deficit of any country studied: -1.73 years of life expectancy over 2020–2024, & remained 0.55 years below expected life expectancy in 2024-an important caveat to recent news of “record” life expectancy in the US that barely exceeded 2019 levels.
5/ In general, countries with severe second-wave peaks (such as the USA and Bulgaria) had the largest cumulative losses. In contrast, countries that delayed widespread infection (e.g., Norway, Japan) saw later deficits that persisted through 2024, but with lower cumulative mortality.
4/ Rather than a uniform rebound, countries diverged into four distinct mortality patterns, with varying levels of overall life expectancy loss and recovery patterns. #demography #covid #episky
3/ We show that this assumption is premature. Extending life expectancy estimates through 2024 for 34 high-income countries, we find that five years after the pandemic’s onset, 31 countries remain below their expected trajectories as projected by Lee-Carter forecasts.
2/ COVID-19 led to the largest declines in life expectancy in many high-income countries since World War II. The prevailing assumption (already embedded in major population projections) is that these losses would be transient, with a quick return to previous trajectories, like scenario A below.
1/ Has life expectancy fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic? In a new pre-print, we find that 31 of 34 high-income countries had still not returned to their expected life expectancy trajectories five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6... #demography
Loads of Nerdy Fun at London & Oxford.
@thosenerdygirls.bsky.social @drjenndowd.bsky.social @gkountourides.bsky.social @sandylaping.bsky.social @emkayhey.bsky.social
Another colleague shared a complete, and by all accounts sound, empirical paper written by LLM, with some prompting. Some thoughts (and some of you will be sick of hearing this by now)… 1/n
Oh wow, this is a really interesting plot! Cohort perspective all the way :).
2/ This post is a collaboration with Data for Health @drjenndowd.bsky.social, Those Nerdy Girls, and the Dartmouth International Vaccine Initiative (sites.dartmouth.edu/divi/)
1/ Don’t Shoot the Messenger RNA
#mRNA is misunderstood, but pretty miraculous. mRNA technology has been decades in the making and has exciting applications beyond #COVID, including fighting #cancer. TNG Alumna @drjenndowd.bsky.social unpacks all you need to know in this fascinating article.
Super cool, I can't wait to read!
I feel this point so much in the current #scicomm public health world.
I saw this a lot when I was trying to do #SciComm, when scientists would interact with bad faith pseudo-science or anti-science activists, and not know how to manage the interaction because we are trained to (and used to) disagree in good faith.
#demography #fertility
📢We updated Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations #STFF data series!
✔️Monthly births for 47 countries and areas
✔️Seasonally & calendar adjusted monthly births & TFRs for 32 countries
Interested in short-term fertility trends?😉👇
humanfertility.org/Data/STFF
Some puns are too good to pass up... but seriously, mRNA technology is amazing, let's give it some love, not unwarranted hate!
open.substack.com/pub/jenndowd... #episky #publichealth #medsky #healthpolicy
We missed this post entirely but very glad you were able to make the pilgrimage @drjenndowd.bsky.social !
Next time feel free to email us via the details in our website; sometimes we may be able to arrange a formal tour with a member of the Society steering committee 📍🗺️